ScoreProb
Prva Liga Serbia Round 17 2026

Napredak vs OFK Bor 1919

Napredak Home · Elo 1,380
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
OFK Bor 1919 Away · Elo 1,581
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Napredak win
Napredak winPick
57.0%
Draw
17.3%
OFK Bor 1919 win
25.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.6%
No54.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.7%
Under 2.544.3%

How much we know

Napredak history69 matches
OFK Bor 1919 history24 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Napredak are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • OFK Bor 1919 are rated 201 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,581 against 1,380. On rating alone OFK Bor 1919 would be expected to take 76% of the points on offer.

  • OFK Bor 1919 score far more

    0.91 goals a game over 69 matches for Napredak, against 3.38 over 24 for OFK Bor 1919.

  • OFK Bor 1919 concede fewer

    Napredak concede 1.70 a game, OFK Bor 1919 1.00.

  • OFK Bor 1919 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    52% of Napredak matches, against 67% for OFK Bor 1919. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Napredak
OFK Bor 1919
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1379.7
ELO
1580.6
69
ELO · Matches
24
1379.7
Current Team ELO
1580.6
1580.6
Current Opponent ELO
1379.7
-200.9
Current ELO Difference
200.9
0.24
Expected score
0.76
69
History Matches
24
-0.08
Residual Mean
0.16
44.06
Overperformance
58.97
0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.40
1.20
Goals for per game
0.60
0.80
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.50
1.10
Goals for per game
2.00
0.90
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.90
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.46
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
24
0.84
PPG
2.25
20.3%
Win rate
70.8%
23.2%
Draw rate
12.5%
56.5%
Loss rate
16.7%
68.1%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
52.2%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
26.1%
Over 3.5 rate
54.2%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
4.06
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
12
1.14
PPG
2.08
29.7%
Win rate
66.7%
24.3%
Draw rate
8.3%
45.9%
Loss rate
25.0%
62.2%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
51.4%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
24.3%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.75
37
History Matches
12
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.91
Goals for per game
3.38
60.9%
Scoring rate
83.3%
49.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.05
Goals for per game
2.42
67.6%
Scoring rate
75.0%
54.1%
BTTS rate
41.7%
1.20
Goals for per game
0.60
100.0%
Scoring rate
40.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
69
History Matches
24
0.91
Goals Mean
3.38
0.88
Goals Std
3.75
60.9%
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
26.1%
Scored 2+ rate
66.7%
4.3%
Scored 3+ rate
45.8%
1.05
Venue Goals Mean
2.42
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.70
Goals against per game
1.00
79.7%
Conceding rate
62.5%
1.49
Goals against per game
1.08
81.1%
Conceding rate
58.3%
0.80
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
69
History Matches
24
1.70
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.45
Conceded Std
1.08
44.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.8%
24.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.49
Venue Conceded Mean
1.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
39.1%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
20.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
39.1%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
20.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
24
0.90
Result entropy
0.73
1.64
Goal Difference Std
4.06
10.34
Stability score
26.92
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
23
10
Lead Matches
12
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
1.00
32
Trailing Matches
3
15.6%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
23
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
1.57
0.93
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.74
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.83
Rest days
78.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
36
Normal Rest History Matches
10
0.83
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
31
Long Rest History Matches
13
0.77
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.77
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.40
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
0.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.40
0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.40
6
Competition Season Count
2
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.56
Portability PPG Std
1.17
1.51
Portability PPG Range
2.34
47.04
Portability Score
29.97
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
24
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-200.9
PPG-1.41
GF-2.46
GA0.70
PPG1.60
PPG-0.95
PPG1.60
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches45
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate22.5%
History Matches25
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate7.4%
History Matches45
Goals Mean-2.46
Goals Std-2.87
Scored 1+ rate-0.22
Scored 2+ rate-0.41
Scored 3+ rate-0.41
Venue Goals Mean-1.36
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.95
History Matches45
Conceded Mean0.70
Conceded Std0.37
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate24.1%
Conceded 3+ rate12.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.26
History Matches45
Result entropy0.17
Goal Difference Std-2.42
Stability score-16.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.21
Eligible Matches46
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.40
Lead Points Retention-0.33
Trailing Matches29
Non-loss rate15.6%
Trailing Win Rate6.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches46
First Half Goals For Mean-1.23
First Half Goals Against Mean0.49
Second Half Goals For Mean-1.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.80
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.61
Portability PPG Range-0.82
Portability Score17.07
Rest days-0.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches26
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Long Rest History Matches18
Long Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Current Team ELO-200.9
Current Opponent ELO200.9
Current ELO Difference-401.8
Expected score-0.52
History Matches45
Residual Mean-0.24
Overperformance-14.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.33

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Napredak

L
Grafičar2–0Napredak2 Nov · away
Pick: Grafičar 44% · hit
L
Macva2–0Napredak27 Oct · away
Pick: Macva 49% · hit
D
Borac Cacak0–0Napredak24 Oct · away
Pick: Borac Cacak 54% · missed
W
Napredak1–0Dubočica17 Oct · home
Pick: Napredak 48% · hit
W
Napredak3–0Loznica5 Oct · home
Pick: Napredak 43% · hit

OFK Bor 1919

L
OFK Bor 19190–1FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV2 Nov · home
Pick: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 63% · hit
L
OFK Bor 19190–2Jedinstvo Ub24 Oct · home
Pick: Jedinstvo Ub 45% · hit
W
OFK Bor 19192–1Naftagas30 Aug · home
Pick: Naftagas 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Napredak and OFK Bor 1919 meet in Prva Liga on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Napredak win 57.0%, draw 17.3%, OFK Bor 1919 win 25.6%. The pick is Napredak win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.7%. Both teams to score: 45.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.