ScoreProb
Super League Uzbekistan Round 27 2026

Neftchi vs Olmaliq

Neftchi Home · Elo 1,650
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Olmaliq Away · Elo 1,519
Istiqlol Stadium, Fergana Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Neftchi win
Neftchi winPick
69.6%
Draw
17.6%
Olmaliq win
12.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.6%
No46.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.8%
Under 2.544.2%

How much we know

Neftchi history60 matches
Olmaliq history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (69.6%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Neftchi are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Neftchi are rated 131 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,650 against 1,519. On rating alone Neftchi would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Neftchi score more

    1.82 goals a game over 60 matches for Neftchi, against 1.43 over 54 for Olmaliq.

  • Neftchi concede fewer

    Neftchi concede 0.85 a game, Olmaliq 1.28.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    57% of Neftchi matches, against 54% for Olmaliq. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Neftchi
Olmaliq
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1649.7
ELO
1518.8
60
ELO · Matches
54
1649.7
Current Team ELO
1518.8
1518.8
Current Opponent ELO
1649.7
130.9
Current ELO Difference
-130.9
0.68
Expected score
0.32
60
History Matches
54
0.12
Residual Mean
0.01
59.13
Overperformance
50.71
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
2.40
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.70
2.10
Goals for per game
1.50
1.10
Goals against per game
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.76
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.51
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.61
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.35
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
54
2.12
PPG
1.46
65.0%
Win rate
40.7%
16.7%
Draw rate
24.1%
18.3%
Loss rate
35.2%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
64.8%
56.7%
Over 2.5 rate
53.7%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
37.0%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
29
2.37
PPG
1.28
76.7%
Win rate
37.9%
6.7%
Draw rate
13.8%
16.7%
Loss rate
48.3%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
62.1%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
55.2%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
37.9%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
30
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.82
Goals for per game
1.43
81.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
41.7%
BTTS rate
55.6%
2.07
Goals for per game
1.28
86.7%
Scoring rate
65.5%
43.3%
BTTS rate
51.7%
2.37
Goals for per game
1.42
84.2%
Scoring rate
68.4%
31.6%
BTTS rate
63.2%
60
History Matches
54
1.82
Goals Mean
1.43
1.34
Goals Std
1.30
81.7%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
56.7%
Scored 2+ rate
46.3%
26.7%
Scored 3+ rate
22.2%
2.07
Venue Goals Mean
1.28
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.85
Goals against per game
1.28
51.7%
Conceding rate
75.9%
0.73
Goals against per game
1.45
53.3%
Conceding rate
75.9%
0.53
Goals against per game
1.32
36.8%
Conceding rate
84.2%
60
History Matches
54
0.85
Conceded Mean
1.28
1.14
Conceded Std
1.04
18.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.2%
6.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.0%
0.73
Venue Conceded Mean
1.45
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
48.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
18.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
63.2%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
48.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
18.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
48.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
54
0.81
Result entropy
0.98
1.97
Goal Difference Std
1.42
19.02
Stability score
2.04
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
54
29
Lead Matches
13
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.82
13
Trailing Matches
18
30.8%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
15.4%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
1.05
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.88
Rest days
74.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
35
Normal Rest History Matches
32
2.40
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
22
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.68
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
19
2.37
PPG
1.53
73.7%
Win rate
42.1%
15.8%
Draw rate
26.3%
10.5%
Loss rate
31.6%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
68.4%
68.4%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
31.6%
Over 3.5 rate
36.8%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.21
19
Current Competition Matches
19
2.37
Current Competition PPG
1.53
1.84
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.11
6
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.58
0.87
Portability PPG Range
1.27
57.69
Portability Score
46.27
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO130.9
PPG0.65
GF0.39
GA-0.43
PPG0.84
PPG1.09
PPG1.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate24.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate22.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.39
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate15.0%
Scored 2+ rate10.4%
Scored 3+ rate4.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.79
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.33
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.43
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate24.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.71
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.76
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.17
Goal Difference Std0.55
Stability score16.98
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.26
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches16
Lead Win Rate23.1%
Lead Points Retention0.18
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate3.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.84
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.74
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.21
Portability PPG Range-0.40
Portability Score11.41
Rest days2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.84
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.35
Current Team ELO130.9
Current Opponent ELO-130.9
Current ELO Difference261.9
Expected score0.36
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance8.42
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Neftchi

D
Tractor Sazi2–2Neftchi2 Nov · away
Pick: Tractor Sazi 35% · missed
L
Neftchi1–2Al-Ittihad FC26 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Ittihad FC 44% · hit
W
Pakhtakor1–3Neftchi23 Oct · away
Pick: Pakhtakor 40% · missed
L
Neftchi2–4Lokomotiv20 Oct · home
Pick: Neftchi 60% · missed
W
Kokand-19122–4Neftchi16 Oct · away
Pick: Neftchi 61% · hit

Olmaliq

W
Lokomotiv1–2Olmaliq1 Nov · away
Pick: Lokomotiv 41% · missed
W
Olmaliq2–1Kokand-191225 Oct · home
Pick: Olmaliq 54% · hit
W
Olmaliq2–0PFK Guliston20 Oct · home
Pick: Olmaliq 69% · hit
W
Mash'al0–1Olmaliq15 Oct · away
Pick: Olmaliq 57% · hit
D
Surkhon0–0Olmaliq25 Aug · away
Pick: Olmaliq 39% · missed

About this match

Neftchi and Olmaliq meet in Super League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Istiqlol Stadium, Fergana. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Neftchi win 69.6%, draw 17.6%, Olmaliq win 12.8%. The pick is Neftchi win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.8%. Both teams to score: 53.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.