ScoreProb
1. Division Belarus Round 32 2026

Niva vs Slonim

Niva Home · Elo 1,575
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Slonim Away · Elo 1,440
City Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Niva win
Niva winPick
58.7%
Draw
21.2%
Slonim win
20.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.4%
No36.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.6%
Under 2.528.4%

How much we know

Niva history64 matches
Slonim history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Niva are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Niva are rated 135 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,575 against 1,440. On rating alone Niva would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Niva score more

    2.00 goals a game over 64 matches for Niva, against 1.36 over 59 for Slonim.

  • Niva concede fewer

    Niva concede 1.70 a game, Slonim 1.95.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    72% of Niva matches, against 66% for Slonim. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Niva
Slonim
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1575.4
ELO
1440.0
64
ELO · Matches
59
1575.4
Current Team ELO
1440.0
1440.0
Current Opponent ELO
1575.4
135.5
Current ELO Difference
-135.5
0.69
Expected score
0.31
64
History Matches
59
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.05
53.81
Overperformance
46.08
0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.20
2.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.30
2.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.30
Goals against per game
1.70
70.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.75
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
59
1.64
PPG
1.02
46.9%
Win rate
30.5%
23.4%
Draw rate
10.2%
29.7%
Loss rate
59.3%
89.1%
Over 1.5 rate
88.1%
71.9%
Over 2.5 rate
66.1%
51.6%
Over 3.5 rate
39.0%
2.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.38
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
31
1.76
PPG
1.10
48.3%
Win rate
35.5%
31.0%
Draw rate
3.2%
20.7%
Loss rate
61.3%
89.7%
Over 1.5 rate
87.1%
79.3%
Over 2.5 rate
71.0%
51.7%
Over 3.5 rate
45.2%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.71
29
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.00
Goals for per game
1.36
84.4%
Scoring rate
64.4%
65.6%
BTTS rate
52.5%
2.07
Goals for per game
1.48
93.1%
Scoring rate
64.5%
69.0%
BTTS rate
48.4%
2.43
Goals for per game
1.86
95.2%
Scoring rate
76.2%
71.4%
BTTS rate
52.4%
64
History Matches
59
2.00
Goals Mean
1.36
1.60
Goals Std
1.41
84.4%
Scored 1+ rate
64.4%
59.4%
Scored 2+ rate
39.0%
23.4%
Scored 3+ rate
18.6%
2.07
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.70
Goals against per game
1.95
81.3%
Conceding rate
83.1%
1.52
Goals against per game
2.13
75.9%
Conceding rate
80.6%
1.24
Goals against per game
1.24
76.2%
Conceding rate
71.4%
64
History Matches
59
1.70
Conceded Mean
1.95
1.58
Conceded Std
1.57
46.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
57.6%
17.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.8%
1.52
Venue Conceded Mean
2.13
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.9%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
35.6%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
6.9%
Failed-to-score rate
35.5%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
4.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.9%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
35.6%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
6.9%
Failed-to-score rate
35.5%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
59
0.96
Result entropy
0.82
2.61
Goal Difference Std
2.38
3.90
Stability score
17.68
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
59
22
Lead Matches
14
95.5%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.97
Lead Points Retention
0.71
23
Trailing Matches
23
39.1%
Non-loss rate
8.7%
13.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.89
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
1.17
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.10
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.88
Rest days
77.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
34
Normal Rest History Matches
34
2.24
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.91
28
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.04
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.08
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
21
2.00
PPG
1.71
61.9%
Win rate
52.4%
14.3%
Draw rate
14.3%
23.8%
Loss rate
33.3%
90.5%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
81.0%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
47.6%
Over 3.5 rate
38.1%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
21
Current Competition Matches
21
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.71
1.19
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.62
6
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.75
Portability PPG Std
0.50
2.00
Portability PPG Range
1.20
39.91
Portability Score
49.99
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO135.5
PPG0.62
GF0.64
GA-0.25
PPG0.29
PPG0.66
PPG1.20
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate1.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate4.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.64
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate20.0%
Scored 2+ rate20.4%
Scored 3+ rate4.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.15
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.25
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate1.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-0.61
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.20
History Matches5
Result entropy0.14
Goal Difference Std0.23
Stability score-13.77
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.05
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate24.0%
Lead Points Retention0.26
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate30.4%
Trailing Win Rate8.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.57
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.25
Portability PPG Range0.80
Portability Score-10.07
Rest days-0.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.32
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.05
Current Team ELO135.5
Current Opponent ELO-135.5
Current ELO Difference270.9
Expected score0.37
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance7.73
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Niva

W
BATE II2–4Niva31 Oct · away
Pick: Niva 62% · hit
D
Niva1–1Uni Minsk25 Oct · home
Pick: Niva 66% · missed
W
Niva6–0Osipovichy30 Aug · home
Pick: Niva 76% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Slonim

L
Slonim0–3FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk31 Oct · home
Pick: Slonim 42% · missed
L
FC Slutsk2–0Slonim24 Oct · away
Pick: FC Slutsk 53% · hit
L
Slonim1–2Orsha30 Aug · home
Pick: Slonim 58% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Niva and Slonim meet in 1. Division on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at City Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Niva win 58.7%, draw 21.2%, Slonim win 20.1%. The pick is Niva win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.6%. Both teams to score: 63.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.