ScoreProb
HNL Croatia Round 13 2026

NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb

NK Varazdin Home · Elo 1,610
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dinamo Zagreb Away · Elo 1,737
Stadion Varteks Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dinamo Zagreb win
NK Varazdin win
19.9%
Draw
26.6%
Dinamo Zagreb winPick
53.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.0%
No46.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.2%
Under 2.543.8%

How much we know

NK Varazdin history75 matches
Dinamo Zagreb history83 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Dinamo Zagreb are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dinamo Zagreb are rated 127 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,737 against 1,610. On rating alone Dinamo Zagreb would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Dinamo Zagreb score far more

    1.41 goals a game over 75 matches for NK Varazdin, against 2.45 over 83 for Dinamo Zagreb.

  • Dinamo Zagreb concede fewer

    NK Varazdin concede 1.13 a game, Dinamo Zagreb 0.99.

  • Dinamo Zagreb games more often go over 2.5 goals

    45% of NK Varazdin matches, against 69% for Dinamo Zagreb. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
NK Varazdin
Dinamo Zagreb@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1610.1
ELO
1737.3
75
ELO · Matches
83
1610.1
Current Team ELO
1737.3
1737.3
Current Opponent ELO
1610.1
-127.2
Current ELO Difference
127.2
0.32
Expected score
0.68
75
History Matches
83
0.07
Residual Mean
0.15
55.73
Overperformance
61.71
0.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.60
1.80
Goals for per game
3.20
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
2.20
1.90
Goals for per game
2.50
1.10
Goals against per game
0.90
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
83
1.60
PPG
2.14
45.3%
Win rate
66.3%
24.0%
Draw rate
15.7%
30.7%
Loss rate
18.1%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
89.2%
45.3%
Over 2.5 rate
68.7%
25.3%
Over 3.5 rate
47.0%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.32
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
39
1.95
PPG
2.00
54.1%
Win rate
61.5%
32.4%
Draw rate
15.4%
13.5%
Loss rate
23.1%
78.4%
Over 1.5 rate
89.7%
45.9%
Over 2.5 rate
64.1%
21.6%
Over 3.5 rate
46.2%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.69
37
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.41
Goals for per game
2.45
74.7%
Scoring rate
86.7%
54.7%
BTTS rate
50.6%
1.54
Goals for per game
2.46
86.5%
Scoring rate
82.1%
64.9%
BTTS rate
48.7%
2.25
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
75
History Matches
83
1.41
Goals Mean
2.45
1.40
Goals Std
1.80
74.7%
Scored 1+ rate
86.7%
38.7%
Scored 2+ rate
68.7%
12.0%
Scored 3+ rate
42.2%
1.54
Venue Goals Mean
2.46
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.13
Goals against per game
0.99
70.7%
Conceding rate
60.2%
1.05
Goals against per game
1.08
70.3%
Conceding rate
64.1%
1.25
Goals against per game
0.33
75.0%
Conceding rate
33.3%
75
History Matches
83
1.13
Conceded Mean
0.99
1.01
Conceded Std
1.02
28.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.7%
13.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.4%
1.05
Venue Conceded Mean
1.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
39.8%
25.3%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
35.9%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
39.8%
25.3%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
35.9%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
39.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
83
0.97
Result entropy
0.79
1.73
Goal Difference Std
2.32
3.18
Stability score
20.61
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
73
Eligible Matches
81
27
Lead Matches
44
81.5%
Lead Win Rate
93.2%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.95
18
Trailing Matches
17
38.9%
Non-loss rate
35.3%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
17.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
73
Halftime Coverage Matches
81
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.44
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.92
Rest days
77.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
8
2.17
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.25
44
Normal Rest History Matches
60
1.48
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.05
24
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.63
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.43
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
3
2.25
PPG
3.00
75.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
4
Current Competition Matches
3
2.25
Current Competition PPG
3.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.67
8
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.60
0.94
Portability PPG Range
1.70
54.44
Portability Score
45.32
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
83
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-127.2
PPG-0.54
GF-1.03
GA0.15
PPG-0.75
PPG-0.05
PPG-0.80
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate12.1%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-8
Goals Mean-1.03
Goals Std-0.40
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.30
Scored 3+ rate-0.30
Venue Goals Mean-0.92
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.30
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean0.15
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate0.3%
Conceded 3+ rate4.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.11
History Matches-8
Result entropy0.17
Goal Difference Std-0.59
Stability score-17.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.16
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.15
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-17
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate3.6%
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.67
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.18
Portability PPG Range-0.76
Portability Score9.13
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Normal Rest History Matches-16
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.57
Long Rest History Matches10
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.80
Current Team ELO-127.2
Current Opponent ELO127.2
Current ELO Difference-254.3
Expected score-0.35
History Matches-8
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.98
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

NK Varazdin

D
HNK Rijeka1–1NK Varazdin1 Nov · away
Pick: HNK Rijeka 45% · missed
L
NK Varazdin1–2NK Slaven Belupo24 Oct · home
Pick: NK Varazdin 65% · missed
L
HNK Hajduk Split1–0NK Varazdin18 Oct · away
Pick: HNK Hajduk Split 46% · hit
W
NK Varazdin2–0Rudes29 Aug · home
Pick: NK Varazdin 68% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Dinamo Zagreb

W
Dinamo Zagreb2–1HNK Rijeka27 Oct · home
Pick: Dinamo Zagreb 48% · hit
L
Dinamo Zagreb2–4NEC Nijmegen22 Oct · home
Pick: Dinamo Zagreb 64% · missed
W
NK Slaven Belupo1–5Dinamo Zagreb18 Oct · away
Pick: Dinamo Zagreb 73% · hit
W
Dinamo Zagreb1–0Anderlecht15 Oct · home
Pick: Dinamo Zagreb 43% · hit
W
Vukovar0–4Dinamo Zagreb4 Oct · away
Pick: Dinamo Zagreb 55% · hit

About this match

NK Varazdin and Dinamo Zagreb meet in HNL on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Varteks. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: NK Varazdin win 19.9%, draw 26.6%, Dinamo Zagreb win 53.5%. The pick is Dinamo Zagreb win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.2%. Both teams to score: 54.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.