NK Osijek vs HNK Hajduk Split
Match result probability Model pick: HNK Hajduk Split win
NK Osijek win
36.3%
Draw
26.8%
HNK Hajduk Split winPick
37.0%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes48.6%
No51.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.553.1%
Under 2.546.9%
How much we know
NK Osijek history71 matches
HNK Hajduk Split history79 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours HNK Hajduk Split
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 13:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why HNK Hajduk Split are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
HNK Hajduk Split are rated 121 Elo points higher
Elo 1,653 against 1,531. On rating alone HNK Hajduk Split would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.
-
HNK Hajduk Split score far more
1.00 goals a game over 71 matches for NK Osijek, against 1.66 over 79 for HNK Hajduk Split.
-
HNK Hajduk Split concede fewer
NK Osijek concede 1.31 a game, HNK Hajduk Split 1.05.
-
HNK Hajduk Split games more often go over 2.5 goals
38% of NK Osijek matches, against 49% for HNK Hajduk Split. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
HNK Hajduk Split@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1531.5
ELO
1652.8
71
ELO · Matches
79
1531.5
Current Team ELO
1652.8
1652.8
Current Opponent ELO
1531.5
-121.4
Current ELO Difference
121.4
0.33
Expected score
0.67
71
History Matches
79
0.02
Residual Mean
0.09
51.66
Overperformance
57.15
0.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.60
2.00
Goals for per game
3.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.90
1.80
Goals for per game
2.30
1.30
Goals against per game
1.30
70.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.49
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.62
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.80
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.41
Overall performance9 signals 90
71
Matches
79
1.21
PPG
1.78
32.4%
Win rate
51.9%
23.9%
Draw rate
22.8%
43.7%
Loss rate
25.3%
69.0%
Over 1.5 rate
78.5%
38.0%
Over 2.5 rate
49.4%
19.7%
Over 3.5 rate
30.4%
2.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
Venue performance10 signals 100
34
Matches
42
1.26
PPG
1.50
32.4%
Win rate
40.5%
29.4%
Draw rate
28.6%
38.2%
Loss rate
31.0%
64.7%
Over 1.5 rate
76.2%
26.5%
Over 2.5 rate
47.6%
11.8%
Over 3.5 rate
31.0%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.02
34
History Matches
42
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.00
Goals for per game
1.66
60.6%
Scoring rate
81.0%
35.2%
BTTS rate
48.1%
0.85
Goals for per game
1.48
52.9%
Scoring rate
73.8%
26.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.25
Goals for per game
2.25
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
71
History Matches
79
1.00
Goals Mean
1.66
1.16
Goals Std
1.37
60.6%
Scored 1+ rate
81.0%
23.9%
Scored 2+ rate
48.1%
7.0%
Scored 3+ rate
19.0%
0.85
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.31
Goals against per game
1.05
62.0%
Conceding rate
62.0%
1.06
Goals against per game
1.21
55.9%
Conceding rate
69.0%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.25
50.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
71
History Matches
79
1.31
Conceded Mean
1.05
1.45
Conceded Std
1.10
38.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.8%
15.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.4%
1.06
Venue Conceded Mean
1.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
38.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.0%
39.4%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
44.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
47.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
38.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.0%
39.4%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
44.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
47.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
38.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
71
History Matches
79
0.97
Result entropy
0.93
2.07
Goal Difference Std
1.91
2.67
Stability score
6.68
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
71
Eligible Matches
79
22
Lead Matches
32
68.2%
Lead Win Rate
90.6%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.92
27
Trailing Matches
18
14.8%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
3.7%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals 50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
79
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.52
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
76.79
Rest days
76.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
5
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.40
39
Normal Rest History Matches
49
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.71
27
Long Rest History Matches
24
0.93
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.83
Competition & season17 signals 170
4
Matches
4
2.25
PPG
1.75
75.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
3.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.25
Current Competition PPG
1.75
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
7
Competition Season Count
10
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.55
1.37
Portability PPG Range
1.75
45.20
Portability Score
47.54
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
71
Clean History Matches
79
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-121.4
PPG-0.57
GF-0.66
GA0.26
PPG0.50
PPG-0.24
PPG-0.80
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate0.1%
Failed-to-score rate20.4%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate13.2%
Failed-to-score rate20.9%
History Matches-8
Goals Mean-0.66
Goals Std-0.20
Scored 1+ rate-0.20
Scored 2+ rate-0.24
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean-0.62
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.17
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean0.26
Conceded Std0.35
Clean-sheet rate0.1%
Conceded 2+ rate10.2%
Conceded 3+ rate4.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.35
History Matches-8
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.15
Stability score-4.01
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.39
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate-0.22
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.38
Portability Score-2.34
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.65
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.91
Current Team ELO-121.4
Current Opponent ELO121.4
Current ELO Difference-242.8
Expected score-0.34
History Matches-8
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.49
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.24
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
NK Osijek
W
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1–3NK Osijek1 Nov · away
Pick: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 39% · missed D
NK Osijek1–1HNK Gorica17 Oct · home
Pick: NK Osijek 54% · missed W
NK Osijek3–0NK Slaven Belupo30 Aug · home
Pick: NK Osijek 59% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
HNK Hajduk Split
D
Istra 19612–2HNK Hajduk Split26 Oct · away
Pick: HNK Hajduk Split 41% · missed W
FC Thun0–1HNK Hajduk Split22 Oct · away
Pick: HNK Hajduk Split 49% · hit W
HNK Hajduk Split1–0NK Varazdin18 Oct · home
Pick: HNK Hajduk Split 46% · hit W
HNK Hajduk Split2–1Ajax15 Oct · home
Pick: HNK Hajduk Split 48% · hit W
HNK Hajduk Split2–0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb31 Aug · home
Pick: HNK Hajduk Split 61% · hit About this match
NK Osijek and HNK Hajduk Split meet in HNL on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Opus Arena, Osijek. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: NK Osijek win 36.3%, draw 26.8%, HNK Hajduk Split win 37.0%. The pick is HNK Hajduk Split win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.1%. Both teams to score: 48.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.