Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chainat
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Chainat
Match result probability Model pick: Nong Bua Pitchaya win
Nong Bua Pitchaya winPick
43.3%
Draw
25.3%
Chainat win
31.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes57.0%
No43.0%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.559.9%
Under 2.540.1%
How much we know
Nong Bua Pitchaya history54 matches
Chainat history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Nong Bua Pitchaya
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 10:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 11:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Nong Bua Pitchaya are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Nong Bua Pitchaya are rated 43 Elo points higher
Elo 1,493 against 1,450. On rating alone Nong Bua Pitchaya would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.37 goals a game over 54 matches for Nong Bua Pitchaya, against 1.31 over 52 for Chainat.
-
Chainat concede fewer
Nong Bua Pitchaya concede 1.93 a game, Chainat 1.38.
-
Nong Bua Pitchaya games more often go over 2.5 goals
69% of Nong Bua Pitchaya matches, against 52% for Chainat. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Chainat
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1492.6
ELO
1449.9
54
ELO · Matches
52
1492.6
Current Team ELO
1449.9
1449.9
Current Opponent ELO
1492.6
42.79
Current ELO Difference
-42.79
0.56
Expected score
0.44
54
History Matches
52
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.04
49.80
Overperformance
46.80
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
2.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.80
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.80
2.20
Goals for per game
1.30
2.10
Goals against per game
2.10
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.72
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.81
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.25
Overall performance9 signals 90
54
Matches
52
1.31
PPG
1.23
37.0%
Win rate
32.7%
20.4%
Draw rate
25.0%
42.6%
Loss rate
42.3%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
68.5%
Over 2.5 rate
51.9%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
2.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
Venue performance10 signals 100
28
Matches
25
1.79
PPG
0.88
46.4%
Win rate
20.0%
39.3%
Draw rate
28.0%
14.3%
Loss rate
52.0%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
68.0%
53.6%
Over 2.5 rate
52.0%
35.7%
Over 3.5 rate
16.0%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.04
28
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.37
Goals for per game
1.31
74.1%
Scoring rate
75.0%
59.3%
BTTS rate
59.6%
1.75
Goals for per game
1.12
89.3%
Scoring rate
72.0%
71.4%
BTTS rate
60.0%
54
History Matches
52
1.37
Goals Mean
1.31
1.22
Goals Std
1.15
74.1%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
38.9%
Scored 2+ rate
34.6%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
13.5%
1.75
Venue Goals Mean
1.12
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.93
Goals against per game
1.38
83.3%
Conceding rate
76.9%
1.46
Goals against per game
1.40
78.6%
Conceding rate
80.0%
54
History Matches
52
1.93
Conceded Mean
1.38
1.67
Conceded Std
1.15
48.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.5%
31.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.3%
1.46
Venue Conceded Mean
1.40
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
10.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
10.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
54
History Matches
52
0.96
Result entropy
0.98
2.25
Goal Difference Std
1.49
3.92
Stability score
2.06
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
54
Eligible Matches
52
18
Lead Matches
14
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
0.81
17
Trailing Matches
17
17.6%
Non-loss rate
17.6%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
1.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
169.0
Rest days
183.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
25
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.48
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
24
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.55
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.00
0.88
Portability PPG Range
0.01
57.45
Portability Score
99.21
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
54
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO42.79
PPG0.08
GF0.06
GA0.54
PPG0.91
PPG0.60
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate0.9%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate1.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.06
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate4.3%
Scored 3+ rate3.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.63
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.94
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.54
Conceded Std0.52
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate9.7%
Conceded 3+ rate14.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.31
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.76
Stability score1.87
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.56
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate5.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.49
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.37
Portability PPG Range0.87
Portability Score-41.76
Rest days-14.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.48
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Current Team ELO42.79
Current Opponent ELO-42.79
Current ELO Difference85.57
Expected score0.12
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Nong Bua Pitchaya
W
Police Tero0–6Nong Bua Pitchaya1 Nov · away
Pick: Nong Bua Pitchaya 37% · hit W
Nong Bua Pitchaya3–0Mahasarakham United24 Oct · home
Pick: Nong Bua Pitchaya 47% · hit W
Bangkok0–2Nong Bua Pitchaya21 Oct · away
Pick: Nong Bua Pitchaya 45% · hit L
Nakhon Pathom4–3Nong Bua Pitchaya17 Oct · away
Pick: Nong Bua Pitchaya 40% · missed W
Nong Bua Pitchaya3–1Chiangmai United14 Oct · home
Pick: Nong Bua Pitchaya 50% · hit Chainat
D
Chainat1–1Kasetsart FC31 Oct · home
Pick: Chainat 47% · missed L
Kanchanaburi6–3Chainat25 Oct · away
Pick: Kanchanaburi 40% · hit W
Chainat3–2Uttaradit18 Oct · home
Pick: Chainat 70% · hit L
Khon Kaen United2–1Chainat15 Oct · away
Pick: Khon Kaen United 46% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Nong Bua Pitchaya and Chainat meet in Thai League 2 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:30 UTC. The match is played at Pitchaya Stadium, Nong Bua Lam Phu. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Nong Bua Pitchaya win 43.3%, draw 25.3%, Chainat win 31.4%. The pick is Nong Bua Pitchaya win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.9%. Both teams to score: 57.0%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.