ScoreProb
Thai League 2 Thailand Round 10 2026

Kasetsart FC vs Muang Loei United

Kasetsart FC Home · Elo 1,448
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Muang Loei United Away · Elo 1,492
Insee Chantarasatit Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kasetsart FC win
Kasetsart FC winPick
78.8%
Draw
12.0%
Muang Loei United win
9.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes40.7%
No59.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.5%
Under 2.529.5%

How much we know

Kasetsart FC history47 matches
Muang Loei United history1 match
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (78.8%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Kasetsart FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Muang Loei United are rated 44 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,492 against 1,448. On rating alone Muang Loei United would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Kasetsart FC score far more

    1.26 goals a game over 47 matches for Kasetsart FC, against 0.00 over 1 for Muang Loei United.

  • Kasetsart FC concede fewer

    Kasetsart FC concede 1.30 a game, Muang Loei United 4.00.

  • Muang Loei United games more often go over 2.5 goals

    49% of Kasetsart FC matches, against 100% for Muang Loei United. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kasetsart FC
Muang Loei United
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1448.0
ELO
1491.6
47
ELO · Matches
1
1448.0
Current Team ELO
1491.6
1491.6
Current Opponent ELO
1448.0
-43.62
Current ELO Difference
43.62
0.44
Expected score
0.56
47
History Matches
1
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.51
46.26
Overperformance
47.56
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.51
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
1
0.80
PPG
0.00
1.60
Goals for per game
0.00
1.80
Goals against per game
4.00
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
0.00
1.10
Goals for per game
0.00
1.20
Goals against per game
4.00
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.00
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
—
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
4.00
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
—
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
1.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
—
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
1
1.17
PPG
0.00
27.7%
Win rate
0.0%
34.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
38.3%
Loss rate
100.0%
74.5%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
48.9%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
21.3%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
1
1.50
PPG
0.00
37.5%
Win rate
0.0%
37.5%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
24
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.26
Goals for per game
0.00
78.7%
Scoring rate
0.0%
59.6%
BTTS rate
0.0%
1.38
Goals for per game
0.00
75.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
45.8%
BTTS rate
0.0%
47
History Matches
1
1.26
Goals Mean
0.00
1.02
Goals Std
—
78.7%
Scored 1+ rate
0.0%
27.7%
Scored 2+ rate
0.0%
17.0%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.38
Venue Goals Mean
0.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.30
Goals against per game
4.00
72.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.04
Goals against per game
4.00
54.2%
Conceding rate
100.0%
47
History Matches
1
1.30
Conceded Mean
4.00
1.07
Conceded Std
—
40.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
100.0%
14.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
100.0%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
4.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
27.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
27.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
27.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
1
0.99
Result entropy
0.00
1.37
Goal Difference Std
—
0.79
Stability score
100.0
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
1
15
Lead Matches
0
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.69
Lead Points Retention
—
14
Trailing Matches
1
35.7%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
1
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
3.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
197.0
Rest days
648.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
22
Normal Rest History Matches
0
0.91
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
20
Long Rest History Matches
0
1.45
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.10
Portability PPG Std
—
0.19
Portability PPG Range
—
84.03
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
1
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreGoals StdRecent 10 Goals StdConceded StdRecent 10 Conceded StdGoal Difference StdRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO-43.62
PPG1.17
GF1.26
GA-2.70
PPG1.50
PPG0.80
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches46
Clean-sheet rate27.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.79
History Matches23
Clean-sheet rate45.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.75
History Matches46
Goals Mean1.26
Scored 1+ rate78.7%
Scored 2+ rate27.7%
Scored 3+ rate17.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
History Matches46
Conceded Mean-2.70
Clean-sheet rate27.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.60
Conceded 3+ rate-0.85
Venue Conceded Mean-2.96
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-2.80
History Matches46
Result entropy0.99
Stability score-99.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.96
Eligible Matches46
Lead Matches15
Trailing Matches13
Non-loss rate35.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches46
First Half Goals For Mean0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.43
Second Half Goals For Mean0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean-2.28
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-451.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest History Matches22
Long Rest History Matches20
Current Team ELO-43.62
Current Opponent ELO43.62
Current ELO Difference-87.25
Expected score-0.12
History Matches46
Residual Mean0.46
Overperformance-1.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.44

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kasetsart FC

D
Chainat1–1Kasetsart FC31 Oct · away
Pick: Chainat 47% · missed
L
Kasetsart FC1–3Satun24 Oct · home
Pick: Kasetsart FC 66% · missed
L
Kasetsart FC1–3Chanthaburi21 Oct · home
Pick: Chanthaburi 37% · hit
L
Police Tero5–3Kasetsart FC17 Oct · away
Pick: Police Tero 46% · hit
W
Kasetsart FC3–1Mahasarakham United14 Oct · home
Pick: Mahasarakham United 40% · missed

Muang Loei United

L
Muang Loei United1–3Muangthong United31 Oct · home
Pick: Muangthong United 42% · hit
L
Khon Kaen United4–2Muang Loei United25 Oct · away
Pick: Khon Kaen United 76% · hit
D
Muang Loei United1–1Kanchanaburi17 Oct · home
Pick: Kanchanaburi 39% · missed
L
Nakhon Ratchasima FC3–2Muang Loei United13 Oct · away
Pick: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 75% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Kasetsart FC and Muang Loei United meet in Thai League 2 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Insee Chantarasatit Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Kasetsart FC win 78.8%, draw 12.0%, Muang Loei United win 9.2%. The pick is Kasetsart FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.5%. Both teams to score: 40.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.