Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Naft Bandar Abbas
Pars Jonoubi JAM
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Naft Bandar Abbas
Match result probability Model pick: Pars Jonoubi JAM win
Pars Jonoubi JAM winPick
37.7%
Draw
36.2%
Naft Bandar Abbas win
26.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes40.8%
No59.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.535.5%
Under 2.564.5%
How much we know
Pars Jonoubi JAM history49 matches
Naft Bandar Abbas history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Pars Jonoubi JAM
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
- Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:15 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre9 Nov · 13:15 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why Pars Jonoubi JAM are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Pars Jonoubi JAM are rated 75 Elo points higher
Elo 1,582 against 1,507. On rating alone Pars Jonoubi JAM would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.
-
Pars Jonoubi JAM score far more
1.33 goals a game over 49 matches for Pars Jonoubi JAM, against 0.86 over 49 for Naft Bandar Abbas.
-
Naft Bandar Abbas concede fewer
Pars Jonoubi JAM concede 0.76 a game, Naft Bandar Abbas 0.67.
-
Pars Jonoubi JAM games more often go over 2.5 goals
37% of Pars Jonoubi JAM matches, against 16% for Naft Bandar Abbas. The model puts this match at 36% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 17 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Pars Jonoubi JAM
Naft Bandar Abbas
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1582.1
ELO
1507.1
49
ELO · Matches
49
1582.1
Current Team ELO
1507.1
1507.1
Current Opponent ELO
1582.1
75.07
Current ELO Difference
-75.07
0.61
Expected score
0.39
49
History Matches
49
0.08
Residual Mean
0.00
55.93
Overperformance
50.11
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.00
2.40
Goals for per game
0.40
0.40
Goals against per game
0.40
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.30
1.60
Goals for per game
0.60
0.30
Goals against per game
0.50
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.67
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.49
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.94
Overall performance9 signals 90
49
Matches
49
1.76
PPG
1.31
46.9%
Win rate
28.6%
34.7%
Draw rate
44.9%
18.4%
Loss rate
26.5%
69.4%
Over 1.5 rate
46.9%
36.7%
Over 2.5 rate
16.3%
12.2%
Over 3.5 rate
4.1%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.24
Venue performance10 signals 100
25
Matches
26
1.68
PPG
1.04
44.0%
Win rate
19.2%
36.0%
Draw rate
46.2%
20.0%
Loss rate
34.6%
64.0%
Over 1.5 rate
46.2%
36.0%
Over 2.5 rate
15.4%
16.0%
Over 3.5 rate
3.8%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.93
25
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.33
Goals for per game
0.86
73.5%
Scoring rate
55.1%
38.8%
BTTS rate
36.7%
1.24
Goals for per game
0.65
60.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
28.0%
BTTS rate
34.6%
49
History Matches
49
1.33
Goals Mean
0.86
1.11
Goals Std
1.16
73.5%
Scored 1+ rate
55.1%
42.9%
Scored 2+ rate
20.4%
10.2%
Scored 3+ rate
2.0%
1.24
Venue Goals Mean
0.65
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.76
Goals against per game
0.67
53.1%
Conceding rate
57.1%
0.72
Goals against per game
0.77
44.0%
Conceding rate
57.7%
49
History Matches
49
0.76
Conceded Mean
0.67
0.82
Conceded Std
0.68
20.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
8.2%
2.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.0%
0.72
Venue Conceded Mean
0.77
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
46.9%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
44.9%
56.0%
Clean-sheet rate
42.3%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
46.9%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
44.9%
56.0%
Clean-sheet rate
42.3%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
46.9%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
49
History Matches
49
0.94
Result entropy
0.97
1.53
Goal Difference Std
1.24
5.92
Stability score
2.65
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
47
Eligible Matches
48
18
Lead Matches
14
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
57.1%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.71
10
Trailing Matches
7
60.0%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.23
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
115.9
Rest days
115.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
32
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.94
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.39
16
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.06
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.02
Portability PPG Std
0.03
0.03
Portability PPG Range
0.07
96.96
Portability Score
93.75
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
49
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO75.07
PPG0.45
GF0.47
GA0.08
PPG0.64
PPG1.60
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate4.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate13.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.47
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate18.4%
Scored 2+ rate22.4%
Scored 3+ rate8.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.62
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate4.1%
Conceded 2+ rate12.2%
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.21
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.29
Stability score3.27
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.54
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate26.2%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate31.4%
Trailing Win Rate20.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.04
Portability Score3.21
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.55
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.44
Current Team ELO75.07
Current Opponent ELO-75.07
Current ELO Difference150.1
Expected score0.21
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.82
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Pars Jonoubi JAM
D
Mes Rafsanjan0–0Pars Jonoubi JAM2 Nov · away
Pick: Pars Jonoubi JAM 43% · missed W
Pars Jonoubi JAM1–0Ario Eslamshahr27 Oct · home
Pick: Pars Jonoubi JAM 41% · hit W
Be'sat Kermanshah1–2Pars Jonoubi JAM20 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 38% · missed W
Pars Jonoubi JAM1–0Naft Gachsaran12 Oct · home
Pick: Pars Jonoubi JAM 39% · hit W
Havadar0–1Pars Jonoubi JAM5 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 35% · missed Naft Bandar Abbas
L
Naft Bandar Abbas0–1Novin Ahvaz2 Nov · home
Pick: Naft Bandar Abbas 60% · missed D
Naft Bandar Abbas0–0Mes Rafsanjan27 Oct · home
Pick: Naft Bandar Abbas 50% · missed L
Ario Eslamshahr4–0Naft Bandar Abbas20 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 43% · missed D
Naft Bandar Abbas1–1Havadar12 Oct · home
Pick: Naft Bandar Abbas 38% · missed L
Be'sat Kermanshah2–1Naft Bandar Abbas5 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 39% · missed About this match
Pars Jonoubi JAM and Naft Bandar Abbas meet in Azadegan League on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 13:15 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Pars Jonoubi JAM win 37.7%, draw 36.2%, Naft Bandar Abbas win 26.1%. The pick is Pars Jonoubi JAM win. Over 2.5 goals: 35.5%. Both teams to score: 40.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.