ScoreProb
Regionalliga - Bayern Germany Bayern - 18 2026

Nürnberg II vs Eichstätt

Nürnberg II Home · Elo 1,616
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Eichstätt Away · Elo 1,515
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nürnberg II win
Nürnberg II winPick
50.0%
Draw
25.5%
Eichstätt win
24.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.0%
No43.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.8%
Under 2.540.2%

How much we know

Nürnberg II history66 matches
Eichstätt history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Nürnberg II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Nürnberg II are rated 101 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,616 against 1,515. On rating alone Nürnberg II would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Nürnberg II score more

    1.92 goals a game over 66 matches for Nürnberg II, against 1.66 over 61 for Eichstätt.

  • Defences are close

    Nürnberg II concede 1.33 a game, Eichstätt 1.28.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    53% of Nürnberg II matches, against 51% for Eichstätt. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nürnberg II
Eichstätt
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1615.7
ELO
1514.7
66
ELO · Matches
61
1615.7
Current Team ELO
1514.7
1514.7
Current Opponent ELO
1615.7
101.0
Current ELO Difference
-101.0
0.64
Expected score
0.36
66
History Matches
61
0.09
Residual Mean
0.00
56.82
Overperformance
50.19
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.10
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.67
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
61
1.85
PPG
1.57
54.5%
Win rate
44.3%
21.2%
Draw rate
24.6%
24.2%
Loss rate
31.1%
77.3%
Over 1.5 rate
78.7%
53.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.8%
34.8%
Over 3.5 rate
34.4%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
33
2.06
PPG
1.30
64.7%
Win rate
36.4%
11.8%
Draw rate
21.2%
23.5%
Loss rate
42.4%
82.4%
Over 1.5 rate
69.7%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
51.5%
38.2%
Over 3.5 rate
42.4%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
34
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.92
Goals for per game
1.66
84.8%
Scoring rate
78.7%
56.1%
BTTS rate
57.4%
2.18
Goals for per game
1.58
91.2%
Scoring rate
69.7%
58.8%
BTTS rate
57.6%
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
80.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
66
History Matches
61
1.92
Goals Mean
1.66
1.54
Goals Std
1.27
84.8%
Scored 1+ rate
78.7%
54.5%
Scored 2+ rate
50.8%
25.8%
Scored 3+ rate
26.2%
2.18
Venue Goals Mean
1.58
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
1.28
68.2%
Conceding rate
75.4%
1.21
Goals against per game
1.58
67.6%
Conceding rate
81.8%
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
100.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
66
History Matches
61
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.28
1.29
Conceded Std
1.23
36.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.9%
19.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.1%
1.21
Venue Conceded Mean
1.58
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
8.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
8.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
61
0.91
Result entropy
0.97
1.76
Goal Difference Std
1.77
8.70
Stability score
2.69
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
58
23
Lead Matches
17
73.9%
Lead Win Rate
76.5%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.84
9
Trailing Matches
17
22.2%
Non-loss rate
23.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.79
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
1.10
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.88
Rest days
78.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
39
Normal Rest History Matches
39
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
24
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.68
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.19
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.80
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
5
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.64
Portability PPG Std
0.51
1.66
Portability PPG Range
1.38
43.99
Portability Score
49.74
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO101.0
PPG0.27
GF0.27
GA0.05
PPG-0.20
PPG0.76
PPG-0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate7.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate14.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.27
Goals Std0.27
Scored 1+ rate6.2%
Scored 2+ rate3.7%
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.18
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.05
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate7.2%
Conceded 2+ rate8.5%
Conceded 3+ rate6.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.69
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.01
Stability score6.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.67
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.40
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.13
Portability PPG Range0.28
Portability Score-5.75
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.44
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.02
Current Team ELO101.0
Current Opponent ELO-101.0
Current ELO Difference201.9
Expected score0.28
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.63
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Nürnberg II

L
Bayreuth3–1Nürnberg II31 Oct · away
Pick: Bayreuth 50% · hit
D
Nürnberg II1–1Bayern München II27 Oct · home
Pick: Nürnberg II 56% · missed
D
Nürnberg II1–1Aubstadt24 Oct · home
Pick: Nürnberg II 42% · missed
W
Memmingen1–2Nürnberg II17 Oct · away
Pick: Memmingen 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Eichstätt

L
Eichstätt0–2TSV 1860 München25 Oct · home
Pick: TSV 1860 München 52% · hit
L
Bayreuth3–1Eichstätt17 Oct · away
Pick: Bayreuth 58% · hit
L
Eichstätt2–3Vilzing13 Oct · home
Pick: Vilzing 44% · hit
W
Eichstätt3–0Aubstadt29 Aug · home
Pick: Aubstadt 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Nürnberg II and Eichstätt meet in Regionalliga - Bayern on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Nürnberg II win 50.0%, draw 25.5%, Eichstätt win 24.5%. The pick is Nürnberg II win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.8%. Both teams to score: 57.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.