ScoreProb
Regionalliga - Bayern Germany Bayern - 18 2026

Eltersdorf vs TSV 1860 München

Eltersdorf Home · Elo 1,588
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
TSV 1860 München Away · Elo 1,553
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: TSV 1860 München win
Eltersdorf win
32.8%
Draw
25.7%
TSV 1860 München winPick
41.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.2%
No47.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.2%
Under 2.548.8%

How much we know

Eltersdorf history51 matches
TSV 1860 München history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why TSV 1860 München are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Eltersdorf are rated 35 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,588 against 1,553. On rating alone Eltersdorf would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.51 goals a game over 51 matches for Eltersdorf, against 1.66 over 67 for TSV 1860 München.

  • Eltersdorf concede fewer

    Eltersdorf concede 0.98 a game, TSV 1860 München 1.27.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    53% of Eltersdorf matches, against 60% for TSV 1860 München. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Eltersdorf
TSV 1860 München
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1587.9
ELO
1552.7
51
ELO · Matches
67
1587.9
Current Team ELO
1552.7
1552.7
Current Opponent ELO
1587.9
35.17
Current ELO Difference
-35.17
0.55
Expected score
0.45
51
History Matches
67
0.09
Residual Mean
0.03
56.36
Overperformance
52.59
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.50
1.20
Goals for per game
1.70
0.90
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
67
1.92
PPG
1.64
58.8%
Win rate
46.3%
15.7%
Draw rate
25.4%
25.5%
Loss rate
28.4%
62.7%
Over 1.5 rate
82.1%
52.9%
Over 2.5 rate
59.7%
25.5%
Over 3.5 rate
35.8%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
35
2.11
PPG
1.57
66.7%
Win rate
45.7%
11.1%
Draw rate
20.0%
22.2%
Loss rate
34.3%
59.3%
Over 1.5 rate
77.1%
48.1%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
31.4%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
27
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.51
Goals for per game
1.66
76.5%
Scoring rate
79.1%
45.1%
BTTS rate
55.2%
1.59
Goals for per game
1.57
77.8%
Scoring rate
74.3%
40.7%
BTTS rate
45.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.50
60.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
51
History Matches
67
1.51
Goals Mean
1.66
1.24
Goals Std
1.33
76.5%
Scored 1+ rate
79.1%
43.1%
Scored 2+ rate
49.3%
23.5%
Scored 3+ rate
23.9%
1.59
Venue Goals Mean
1.57
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.98
Goals against per game
1.27
58.8%
Conceding rate
71.6%
0.81
Goals against per game
1.23
55.6%
Conceding rate
65.7%
0.80
Goals against per game
1.50
60.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
51
History Matches
67
0.98
Conceded Mean
1.27
1.23
Conceded Std
1.17
23.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.8%
7.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.9%
0.81
Venue Conceded Mean
1.23
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.4%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.9%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.4%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.9%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
67
0.87
Result entropy
0.97
1.83
Goal Difference Std
2.01
13.42
Stability score
3.34
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
67
19
Lead Matches
21
94.7%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.89
13
Trailing Matches
20
30.8%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
15.4%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.88
Rest days
77.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
5
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.20
26
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.88
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.54
23
Long Rest History Matches
26
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.81
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
4
1.60
PPG
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
40.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
0.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
5
Current Competition Matches
4
1.60
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.76
Portability PPG Std
0.36
1.92
Portability PPG Range
0.93
39.66
Portability Score
58.48
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO35.17
PPG0.28
GF-0.15
GA-0.29
PPG-0.40
PPG0.54
PPG0.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate12.8%
Failed-to-score rate2.6%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate10.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-16
Goals Mean-0.15
Goals Std-0.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean0.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.15
History Matches-16
Conceded Mean-0.29
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate12.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.41
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.03
History Matches-16
Result entropy-0.10
Goal Difference Std-0.18
Stability score10.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.15
Eligible Matches-16
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate9.0%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate5.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches-16
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.80
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.41
Portability PPG Range0.99
Portability Score-18.82
Rest days0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match1.80
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.34
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.19
Current Team ELO35.17
Current Opponent ELO-35.17
Current ELO Difference70.33
Expected score0.10
History Matches-16
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.77
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Eltersdorf

L
Schwaben Augsburg2–1Eltersdorf31 Oct · away
Pick: Eltersdorf 39% · missed
L
Eltersdorf0–2Memmingen23 Oct · home
Pick: Eltersdorf 40% · missed
D
Landsberg1–1Eltersdorf17 Oct · away
Pick: Eltersdorf 39% · missed
D
Eltersdorf2–2Wacker Burghausen13 Oct · home
Pick: Eltersdorf 48% · missed
D
Augsburg II3–3Eltersdorf29 Aug · away
Pick: Augsburg II 37% · missed

TSV 1860 München

W
TSV 1860 München4–3Buchbach30 Oct · home
Pick: TSV 1860 München 40% · hit
W
Eichstätt0–2TSV 1860 München25 Oct · away
Pick: TSV 1860 München 52% · hit
L
TSV 1860 München2–4Bayern München II18 Oct · home
Pick: TSV 1860 München 62% · missed
W
TSV 1860 München2–1Bayreuth13 Oct · home
Pick: TSV 1860 München 51% · hit
D
TSV 1860 München1–1Landsberg30 Aug · home
Pick: TSV 1860 München 59% · missed

About this match

Eltersdorf and TSV 1860 München meet in Regionalliga - Bayern on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Eltersdorf win 32.8%, draw 25.7%, TSV 1860 München win 41.5%. The pick is TSV 1860 München win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.2%. Both teams to score: 52.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.