ScoreProb
Persha Liga Ukraine Round 15 2026

Nyva Ternopil vs Polissya II

Nyva Ternopil Home · Elo 1,448
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Polissya II Away · Elo 1,558
Ternopilsky Misky Stadion Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nyva Ternopil win
Nyva Ternopil winPick
47.7%
Draw
27.3%
Polissya II win
25.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.1%
No47.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.2%
Under 2.548.8%

How much we know

Nyva Ternopil history51 matches
Polissya II history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Nyva Ternopil are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Polissya II are rated 110 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,558 against 1,448. On rating alone Polissya II would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Polissya II score far more

    1.04 goals a game over 51 matches for Nyva Ternopil, against 2.15 over 40 for Polissya II.

  • Polissya II concede fewer

    Nyva Ternopil concede 1.20 a game, Polissya II 0.93.

  • Polissya II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    45% of Nyva Ternopil matches, against 60% for Polissya II. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nyva Ternopil
Polissya II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1448.5
ELO
1558.4
51
ELO · Matches
40
1448.5
Current Team ELO
1558.4
1558.4
Current Opponent ELO
1448.5
-109.9
Current ELO Difference
109.9
0.35
Expected score
0.65
51
History Matches
40
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.07
45.46
Overperformance
54.38
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.24
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.00
0.90
Goals for per game
1.30
1.60
Goals against per game
1.10
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.54
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
40
1.20
PPG
1.80
29.4%
Win rate
50.0%
31.4%
Draw rate
30.0%
39.2%
Loss rate
20.0%
68.6%
Over 1.5 rate
82.5%
45.1%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
13.7%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
21
1.27
PPG
1.62
31.8%
Win rate
42.9%
31.8%
Draw rate
33.3%
36.4%
Loss rate
23.8%
59.1%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
40.9%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
38.1%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
22
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.04
Goals for per game
2.15
62.7%
Scoring rate
85.0%
47.1%
BTTS rate
52.5%
1.09
Goals for per game
2.10
54.5%
Scoring rate
85.7%
31.8%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.25
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
51
History Matches
40
1.04
Goals Mean
2.15
1.07
Goals Std
1.62
62.7%
Scored 1+ rate
85.0%
29.4%
Scored 2+ rate
60.0%
7.8%
Scored 3+ rate
35.0%
1.09
Venue Goals Mean
2.10
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.20
Goals against per game
0.93
70.6%
Conceding rate
60.0%
1.05
Goals against per game
1.00
54.5%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
51
History Matches
40
1.20
Conceded Mean
0.93
1.17
Conceded Std
0.93
27.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
13.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.5%
1.05
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
37.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.0%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
45.5%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
37.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.0%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
45.5%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
40
0.99
Result entropy
0.94
1.72
Goal Difference Std
2.01
0.72
Stability score
6.28
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
34
12
Lead Matches
15
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
86.7%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.91
12
Trailing Matches
6
16.7%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
34
0.39
First Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.35
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.96
Rest days
84.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
29
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.21
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.74
21
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.10
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.80
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.25
PPG
0.50
25.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.25
Current Competition PPG
0.50
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
6
Competition Season Count
4
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.56
Portability PPG Std
0.65
1.67
Portability PPG Range
1.57
47.33
Portability Score
43.53
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-109.9
PPG-0.60
GF-1.11
GA0.27
PPG0.75
PPG-0.35
PPG0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate22.3%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate12.1%
Failed-to-score rate31.2%
History Matches11
Goals Mean-1.11
Goals Std-0.56
Scored 1+ rate-0.22
Scored 2+ rate-0.31
Scored 3+ rate-0.27
Venue Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.49
History Matches11
Conceded Mean0.27
Conceded Std0.24
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate2.5%
Conceded 3+ rate6.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.19
History Matches11
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.29
Stability score-5.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.02
Eligible Matches17
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.33
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches17
First Half Goals For Mean-0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.09
Portability PPG Range0.10
Portability Score3.80
Rest days-7.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.53
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.70
Current Team ELO-109.9
Current Opponent ELO109.9
Current ELO Difference-219.7
Expected score-0.31
History Matches11
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-8.92
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Nyva Ternopil

W
Nyva Ternopil3–1Kulykiv25 Oct · home
Pick: Nyva Ternopil 36% · hit
D
Lokomotiv Kyiv0–0Nyva Ternopil18 Oct · away
Pick: Lokomotiv Kyiv 44% · missed
D
Yarud Mariupol'0–0Nyva Ternopil5 Oct · away
Pick: Nyva Ternopil 40% · missed
D
Metal Kharkiv1–1Nyva Ternopil30 Aug · away
Pick: Metal Kharkiv 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Polissya II

D
Polissya II0–0Oleksandria2 Nov · home
Pick: Oleksandria 59% · missed
L
Polissya II1–2SK Poltava24 Oct · home
Pick: SK Poltava 40% · hit
L
Polissya II2–4Kulykiv12 Oct · home
Pick: Kulykiv 45% · hit
L
Polissya II1–2Prykarpattia29 Aug · home
Pick: Polissya II 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Nyva Ternopil and Polissya II meet in Persha Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Nyva Ternopil win 47.7%, draw 27.3%, Polissya II win 25.0%. The pick is Nyva Ternopil win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.2%. Both teams to score: 52.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.