ScoreProb
U19 League Ukraine Round 13 2026

Obolon' Kyiv U19 vs Metalist 1925 U19

Obolon' Kyiv U19 Home · Elo 1,507
Full time
1–1
Half time 1–1
Wed 4 Nov · 11:00 UTC
Metalist 1925 U19 Away · Elo 1,484
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
What we said before kickoff Result: Draw
Obolon' Kyiv U19 winPick
59.4%
Draw Result
18.4%
Metalist 1925 U19 win
22.2%

How our picks did

Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.

1 of 3 hit
Match result
Our pickObolon' Kyiv U19 win · 59.4%
What happenedDraw · we gave it 18.4%
Missed
Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 59.4%
What happenedUnder · 2 goals
Missed
Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 54.6%
What happenedYes · 1–1
Hit

How surprising was it?

Result: Draw. In our numbers it ranked third of the three.

18%
chance we gave it
0%50%100%
1 in 5.4
on average
A pick at 59% is expected to miss about 4 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record

Timeline

Newest at the bottom

Goal
1'

Both teams to score

Yes54.6%
No45.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.4%
Under 2.540.6%

How much we know

Obolon' Kyiv U19 history46 matches
Metalist 1925 U19 history32 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full time: 1–1One of our three picks hit
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

Share this result

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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Obolon' Kyiv U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,507 against 1,484. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Metalist 1925 U19 score more

    1.20 goals a game over 46 matches for Obolon' Kyiv U19, against 1.44 over 32 for Metalist 1925 U19.

  • Defences are close

    Obolon' Kyiv U19 concede 1.54 a game, Metalist 1925 U19 1.59.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Obolon' Kyiv U19 matches, against 53% for Metalist 1925 U19. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 19 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Obolon' Kyiv U19
Metalist 1925 U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1507.1
ELO
1484.4
46
ELO · Matches
32
1507.1
Current Team ELO
1484.4
1484.4
Current Opponent ELO
1507.1
22.68
Current ELO Difference
-22.68
0.53
Expected score
0.47
46
History Matches
32
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.03
50.60
Overperformance
48.41
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
2.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.00
1.10
Goals for per game
1.40
1.30
Goals against per game
2.10
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.56
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.30
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
32
1.37
PPG
1.38
37.0%
Win rate
40.6%
26.1%
Draw rate
15.6%
37.0%
Loss rate
43.8%
67.4%
Over 1.5 rate
78.1%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
53.1%
34.8%
Over 3.5 rate
34.4%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.02
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
16
1.26
PPG
1.06
34.8%
Win rate
31.3%
21.7%
Draw rate
12.5%
43.5%
Loss rate
56.3%
73.9%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
52.2%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
43.5%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
23
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.20
Goals for per game
1.44
67.4%
Scoring rate
65.6%
43.5%
BTTS rate
40.6%
1.39
Goals for per game
1.19
73.9%
Scoring rate
62.5%
47.8%
BTTS rate
37.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
46
History Matches
32
1.20
Goals Mean
1.44
1.10
Goals Std
1.37
67.4%
Scored 1+ rate
65.6%
34.8%
Scored 2+ rate
46.9%
15.2%
Scored 3+ rate
18.8%
1.39
Venue Goals Mean
1.19
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.54
Goals against per game
1.59
65.2%
Conceding rate
68.8%
1.70
Goals against per game
1.56
69.6%
Conceding rate
68.8%
1.33
Goals against per game
3.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
32
1.54
Conceded Mean
1.59
1.58
Conceded Std
1.45
47.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.9%
21.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.1%
1.70
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
32.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
32.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
32
0.99
Result entropy
0.93
1.95
Goal Difference Std
2.02
1.12
Stability score
7.37
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
32
9
Lead Matches
13
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.82
17
Trailing Matches
11
17.6%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
32
0.46
First Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.83
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
22
Normal Rest History Matches
16
1.27
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
23
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.52
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.20
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
0.00
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.67
3
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.02
Portability PPG Std
0.76
0.05
Portability PPG Range
1.52
95.92
Portability Score
39.73
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
32
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO22.68
PPG-0.01
GF-0.24
GA-0.05
PPG1.33
PPG0.20
PPG0.80
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate3.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches14
Goals Mean-0.24
Goals Std-0.27
Scored 1+ rate1.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.86
History Matches14
Conceded Mean-0.05
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate3.5%
Conceded 2+ rate1.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.03
History Matches14
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score-6.25
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.62
Eligible Matches14
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate0.9%
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate-0.12
Halftime Coverage Matches14
First Half Goals For Mean-0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.33
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.74
Portability PPG Range-1.47
Portability Score56.20
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.16
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.32
Current Team ELO22.68
Current Opponent ELO-22.68
Current ELO Difference45.36
Expected score0.07
History Matches14
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Obolon' Kyiv U19

D
Obolon' Kyiv U191–1Shakhtar Donetsk U197 Oct · home
Pick: Shakhtar Donetsk U19 54% · missed
D
Oleksandria U190–0Obolon' Kyiv U199 Sep · away
Pick: Oleksandria U19 48% · missed
L
Lviv U191–0Obolon' Kyiv U1926 Aug · away
Pick: Obolon' Kyiv U19 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Metalist 1925 U19

D
Karpaty Lviv U190–0Metalist 1925 U1921 Oct · away
Pick: Karpaty Lviv U19 65% · missed
W
Metalist 1925 U192–0Kolos Kovalivka U1914 Oct · home
Pick: Metalist 1925 U19 39% · hit
W
Metalist 1925 U193–2Lviv U197 Oct · home
Pick: Metalist 1925 U19 53% · hit
L
SK Metalurh U193–1Metalist 1925 U1926 Aug · away
Pick: SK Metalurh U19 52% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Match report

Obolon' Kyiv U19 and Metalist 1925 U19 finished 1–1 in U19 League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 1–1 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Obolon' Kyiv U19 win 59.4%, draw 18.4%, Metalist 1925 U19 win 22.2%. One of the three picks hit.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.