ScoreProb
Division Profesional - Clausura Paraguay Round 18 2026

Olimpia vs Deportivo Recoleta

Olimpia Home · Elo 1,588
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Deportivo Recoleta Away · Elo 1,504
Estadio Manuel Ferreira, Asunción Referee: Mario Alberto Diaz De Vivar Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 07:28 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Olimpia win
Olimpia winPick
57.4%
Draw
21.5%
Deportivo Recoleta win
21.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.7%
No44.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.0%
Under 2.543.0%

How much we know

Olimpia history71 matches
Deportivo Recoleta history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 2 d 16 h ahead
    2 Nov · 07:28 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 00:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Olimpia are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Olimpia are rated 84 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,588 against 1,504. On rating alone Olimpia would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Deportivo Recoleta score more

    1.44 goals a game over 71 matches for Olimpia, against 1.60 over 55 for Deportivo Recoleta.

  • Olimpia concede fewer

    Olimpia concede 1.23 a game, Deportivo Recoleta 1.42.

  • Deportivo Recoleta games more often go over 2.5 goals

    49% of Olimpia matches, against 60% for Deportivo Recoleta. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Olimpia
Deportivo Recoleta
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1587.8
ELO
1504.0
71
ELO · Matches
55
1587.8
Current Team ELO
1504.0
1504.0
Current Opponent ELO
1587.8
83.82
Current ELO Difference
-83.82
0.62
Expected score
0.38
71
History Matches
55
0.05
Residual Mean
0.00
54.28
Overperformance
50.09
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
0.60
Goals against per game
2.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.30
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
2.10
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.56
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.30
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
55
1.55
PPG
1.42
42.3%
Win rate
38.2%
28.2%
Draw rate
27.3%
29.6%
Loss rate
34.5%
74.6%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
49.3%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
28.2%
Over 3.5 rate
43.6%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
28
1.79
PPG
1.43
48.5%
Win rate
39.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
25.0%
18.2%
Loss rate
35.7%
75.8%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
57.6%
Over 2.5 rate
64.3%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
53.6%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
33
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.44
Goals for per game
1.60
73.2%
Scoring rate
85.5%
54.9%
BTTS rate
70.9%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.68
69.7%
Scoring rate
82.1%
57.6%
BTTS rate
67.9%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.67
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
100.0%
71
History Matches
55
1.44
Goals Mean
1.60
1.23
Goals Std
1.15
73.2%
Scored 1+ rate
85.5%
43.7%
Scored 2+ rate
43.6%
18.3%
Scored 3+ rate
23.6%
1.67
Venue Goals Mean
1.68
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.23
Goals against per game
1.42
70.4%
Conceding rate
78.2%
1.06
Goals against per game
1.43
69.7%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.17
83.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
71
History Matches
55
1.23
Conceded Mean
1.42
1.18
Conceded Std
1.14
28.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.2%
16.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.06
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.8%
26.8%
Failed-to-score rate
14.5%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.8%
26.8%
Failed-to-score rate
14.5%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
55
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.69
Goal Difference Std
1.63
1.59
Stability score
0.86
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
71
Eligible Matches
55
20
Lead Matches
14
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
64.3%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.69
21
Trailing Matches
17
42.9%
Non-loss rate
35.3%
23.8%
Trailing Win Rate
23.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.22
Rest days
74.22
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.60
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.25
48
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.77
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.45
17
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.53
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
1.50
PPG
1.17
50.0%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
83.3%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
6
Current Competition Matches
6
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.17
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
8
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.57
Portability PPG Std
0.29
1.52
Portability PPG Range
0.73
46.80
Portability Score
63.33
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO83.82
PPG0.13
GF-0.16
GA-0.19
PPG0.33
PPG0.36
PPG1.40
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate7.8%
Failed-to-score rate12.2%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Failed-to-score rate12.4%
History Matches16
Goals Mean-0.16
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate0.0%
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.65
History Matches16
Conceded Mean-0.19
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate7.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.22
History Matches16
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score0.72
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.11
Eligible Matches16
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate10.7%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate7.6%
Trailing Win Rate0.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches16
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.28
Portability PPG Range0.79
Portability Score-16.53
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.35
Normal Rest History Matches17
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.32
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.53
Current Team ELO83.82
Current Opponent ELO-83.82
Current ELO Difference167.6
Expected score0.24
History Matches16
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance4.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Olimpia

W
Cerro Porteno0–2Olimpia1 Nov · away
Pick: Olimpia 41% · hit
W
Sportivo Ameliano2–3Olimpia25 Oct · away
Pick: Olimpia 40% · hit
W
Olimpia3–02 de Mayo17 Oct · home
Pick: Olimpia 46% · hit
W
Deportivo Recoleta1–2Olimpia29 Aug · away
Pick: Olimpia 41% · hit
W
Cristóbal Colón JAS3–5Olimpia26 Aug · away
Pick: Olimpia 40% · hit

Deportivo Recoleta

W
Deportivo Recoleta3–0Sportivo Ameliano31 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo Recoleta 39% · hit
W
Sportivo Luqueno0–2Deportivo Recoleta28 Oct · away
Pick: Sportivo Luqueno 48% · missed
D
2 de Mayo1–1Deportivo Recoleta24 Oct · away
Pick: 2 de Mayo 63% · missed
W
Deportivo Recoleta1–0Rubio NU16 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo Recoleta 50% · hit
L
Nacional Asuncion1–0Deportivo Recoleta12 Oct · away
Pick: Nacional Asuncion 56% · hit

About this match

Olimpia and Deportivo Recoleta meet in Division Profesional - Clausura on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 00:15 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Manuel Ferreira, Asunción. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 07:28 UTC: Olimpia win 57.4%, draw 21.5%, Deportivo Recoleta win 21.1%. The pick is Olimpia win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.0%. Both teams to score: 55.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.