ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 1 Poland Group I - 16 2026

Olimpia Zambrów vs Jagiellonia II

Olimpia Zambrów Home · Elo 1,489
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Jagiellonia II Away · Elo 1,543
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Jagiellonia II win
Olimpia Zambrów win
37.5%
Draw
23.2%
Jagiellonia II winPick
39.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.6%
No36.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.3%
Under 2.529.7%

How much we know

Olimpia Zambrów history7 matches
Jagiellonia II history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Jagiellonia II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Jagiellonia II are rated 54 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,543 against 1,489. On rating alone Jagiellonia II would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Olimpia Zambrów score more

    1.86 goals a game over 7 matches for Olimpia Zambrów, against 1.59 over 58 for Jagiellonia II.

  • Jagiellonia II concede fewer

    Olimpia Zambrów concede 2.43 a game, Jagiellonia II 1.50.

  • Olimpia Zambrów games more often go over 2.5 goals

    100% of Olimpia Zambrów matches, against 57% for Jagiellonia II. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Olimpia Zambrów
Jagiellonia II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1489.2
ELO
1543.3
7
ELO · Matches
58
1489.2
Current Team ELO
1543.3
1543.3
Current Opponent ELO
1489.2
-54.11
Current ELO Difference
54.11
0.42
Expected score
0.58
7
History Matches
58
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.04
48.33
Overperformance
52.99
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.60
2.60
Goals for per game
1.80
2.20
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
7
Matches
10
1.29
PPG
1.60
1.86
Goals for per game
1.80
2.43
Goals against per game
1.70
42.9%
Win rate
40.0%
1.86
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.96
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
2.43
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
7
Matches
58
1.29
PPG
1.50
42.9%
Win rate
41.4%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.9%
57.1%
Loss rate
32.8%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.9%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
41.4%
2.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
Venue performance10 signals
100
4
Matches
28
1.50
PPG
1.75
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
64.3%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
46.4%
2.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
4
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.86
Goals for per game
1.59
57.1%
Scoring rate
79.3%
42.9%
BTTS rate
60.3%
2.50
Goals for per game
1.82
75.0%
Scoring rate
85.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
64.3%
2.60
Goals for per game
1.80
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
7
History Matches
58
1.86
Goals Mean
1.59
1.96
Goals Std
1.25
57.1%
Scored 1+ rate
79.3%
42.9%
Scored 2+ rate
44.8%
42.9%
Scored 3+ rate
25.9%
2.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.82
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.43
Goals against per game
1.50
85.7%
Conceding rate
79.3%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.50
75.0%
Conceding rate
78.6%
2.20
Goals against per game
1.80
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
7
History Matches
58
2.43
Conceded Mean
1.50
1.18
Conceded Std
1.16
85.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.6%
57.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.5%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
7
History Matches
58
0.62
Result entropy
0.98
2.92
Goal Difference Std
1.78
37.84
Stability score
1.65
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
6
Eligible Matches
57
3
Lead Matches
17
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
76.5%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.82
3
Trailing Matches
19
0.0%
Non-loss rate
31.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
15.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
6
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
1.17
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
1.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.92
Rest days
75.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
3
Normal Rest History Matches
31
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.45
3
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
2.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.28
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.80
Current Competition PPG
1.60
0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
3
Competition Season Count
5
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
—
Portability PPG Std
0.37
—
Portability PPG Range
0.94
—
Portability Score
57.21
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
7
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-54.11
PPG-0.21
GF0.27
GA0.93
PPG0.20
PPG-0.25
PPG0.20
PPG-0.31
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-51
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate22.2%
History Matches-24
Clean-sheet rate3.6%
Failed-to-score rate10.7%
History Matches-51
Goals Mean0.27
Goals Std0.71
Scored 1+ rate-0.22
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate17.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.68
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.06
Recent 10 Goals Std0.71
History Matches-51
Conceded Mean0.93
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate39.2%
Conceded 3+ rate41.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.73
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.08
History Matches-51
Result entropy-0.36
Goal Difference Std1.14
Stability score36.19
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.34
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.22
Eligible Matches-51
Lead Matches-14
Lead Win Rate23.5%
Lead Points Retention0.18
Trailing Matches-16
Non-loss rate-0.32
Trailing Win Rate-0.16
Halftime Coverage Matches-51
First Half Goals For Mean0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.40
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Rest days-0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-28
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.55
Long Rest History Matches-22
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.44
Current Team ELO-54.11
Current Opponent ELO54.11
Current ELO Difference-108.2
Expected score-0.15
History Matches-51
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-4.66
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Olimpia Zambrów

L
ŁKS Łódź II3–2Olimpia Zambrów31 Oct · away
Pick: Olimpia Zambrów 45% · missed
D
Olimpia Zambrów1–1Mławianka Mława24 Oct · home
Pick: Olimpia Zambrów 46% · missed
W
Łomża0–2Olimpia Zambrów17 Oct · away
Pick: Łomża 56% · missed
L
Olimpia Zambrów3–4Widzew II30 Aug · home
Pick: Widzew II 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Jagiellonia II

W
Jagiellonia II2–1Polonia Lidzbark Warm.30 Oct · home
Pick: Jagiellonia II 68% · hit
D
Olimpia Elbląg0–0Jagiellonia II24 Oct · away
Pick: Olimpia Elbląg 46% · missed
L
Jagiellonia II1–3Swit18 Oct · home
Pick: Jagiellonia II 39% · missed
L
Jagiellonia II0–1Troszyn14 Oct · home
Pick: Jagiellonia II 62% · missed
D
Jagiellonia II1–1Lechia T. Mazowiecki29 Aug · home
Pick: Jagiellonia II 51% · missed

About this match

Olimpia Zambrów and Jagiellonia II meet in III Liga - Group 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Olimpia Zambrów win 37.5%, draw 23.2%, Jagiellonia II win 39.3%. The pick is Jagiellonia II win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.3%. Both teams to score: 63.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.