ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 1 Poland Group I - 16 2026

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. vs Troszyn

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. Home · Elo 1,461
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Troszyn Away · Elo 1,521
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Polonia Lidzbark Warm. win
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. winPick
43.3%
Draw
20.2%
Troszyn win
36.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes65.8%
No34.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.2%
Under 2.528.8%

How much we know

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. history9 matches
Troszyn history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Polonia Lidzbark Warm. are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Troszyn are rated 60 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,521 against 1,461. On rating alone Troszyn would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Troszyn score more

    1.33 goals a game over 9 matches for Polonia Lidzbark Warm., against 2.05 over 40 for Troszyn.

  • Troszyn concede fewer

    Polonia Lidzbark Warm. concede 2.56 a game, Troszyn 1.55.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    78% of Polonia Lidzbark Warm. matches, against 73% for Troszyn. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
Troszyn
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1461.4
ELO
1521.1
9
ELO · Matches
40
1461.4
Current Team ELO
1521.1
1521.1
Current Opponent ELO
1461.4
-59.64
Current ELO Difference
59.64
0.42
Expected score
0.58
9
History Matches
40
-0.20
Residual Mean
0.02
43.69
Overperformance
51.42
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
0.20
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
2.80
Goals against per game
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
9
Matches
10
0.78
PPG
1.00
1.33
Goals for per game
1.30
2.56
Goals against per game
2.00
22.2%
Win rate
30.0%
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
2.56
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.34
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.67
0.77
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
9
Matches
40
0.78
PPG
1.53
22.2%
Win rate
45.0%
11.1%
Draw rate
17.5%
66.7%
Loss rate
37.5%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
92.5%
77.8%
Over 2.5 rate
72.5%
55.6%
Over 3.5 rate
45.0%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.48
Venue performance10 signals
100
5
Matches
21
0.80
PPG
1.33
20.0%
Win rate
38.1%
20.0%
Draw rate
19.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
42.9%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.5%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
5
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.33
Goals for per game
2.05
77.8%
Scoring rate
90.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
65.0%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.76
80.0%
Scoring rate
90.5%
60.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
9
History Matches
40
1.33
Goals Mean
2.05
0.94
Goals Std
1.55
77.8%
Scored 1+ rate
90.0%
44.4%
Scored 2+ rate
57.5%
11.1%
Scored 3+ rate
27.5%
1.20
Venue Goals Mean
1.76
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.56
Goals against per game
1.55
88.9%
Conceding rate
72.5%
1.80
Goals against per game
1.62
80.0%
Conceding rate
76.2%
2.80
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
9
History Matches
40
2.56
Conceded Mean
1.55
1.34
Conceded Std
1.45
77.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.0%
55.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.80
Venue Conceded Mean
1.62
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
9.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
9.5%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
9
History Matches
40
0.77
Result entropy
0.94
1.87
Goal Difference Std
2.48
22.75
Stability score
6.05
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
9
Eligible Matches
39
1
Lead Matches
12
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
6
Trailing Matches
15
16.7%
Non-loss rate
26.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
9
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.44
First Half Goals For Mean
0.87
1.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.15
1.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.21
Rest days
76.21
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
4
Normal Rest History Matches
25
0.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
3
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.69
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
0.20
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
80.0%
Loss rate
80.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.20
Current Competition PPG
0.20
-1.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.20
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.65
Portability PPG Std
0.74
1.30
Portability PPG Range
1.48
43.48
Portability Score
40.38
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
9
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-59.64
PPG-0.75
GF-0.72
GA1.01
PPG0.00
PPG-0.53
PPG0.00
PPG-0.22
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-31
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate12.2%
History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate10.5%
History Matches-31
Goals Mean-0.72
Goals Std-0.61
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Goals Mean-0.56
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.03
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.24
History Matches-31
Conceded Mean1.01
Conceded Std-0.11
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Conceded 2+ rate32.8%
Conceded 3+ rate35.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.56
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.33
History Matches-31
Result entropy-0.17
Goal Difference Std-0.61
Stability score16.70
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.45
Eligible Matches-30
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate-0.20
Halftime Coverage Matches-30
First Half Goals For Mean-0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean0.46
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.50
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.80
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.09
Portability PPG Range-0.18
Portability Score3.10
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-21
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.69
Long Rest History Matches-10
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Current Team ELO-59.64
Current Opponent ELO59.64
Current ELO Difference-119.3
Expected score-0.17
History Matches-31
Residual Mean-0.22
Overperformance-7.73
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Polonia Lidzbark Warm.

L
Jagiellonia II2–1Polonia Lidzbark Warm.30 Oct · away
Pick: Jagiellonia II 68% · hit
W
Polonia Lidzbark Warm.3–0ŁKS Łódź II24 Oct · home
Pick: Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 41% · hit
L
Mławianka Mława3–2Polonia Lidzbark Warm.17 Oct · away
Pick: Mławianka Mława 66% · hit
D
Polonia Lidzbark Warm.2–2Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki29 Aug · home
Pick: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Troszyn

W
Troszyn2–0Olimpia Elbląg31 Oct · home
Pick: Olimpia Elbląg 45% · missed
L
Swit3–0Troszyn24 Oct · away
Pick: Swit 61% · hit
D
Troszyn1–1Ząbkovia Ząbki18 Oct · home
Pick: Ząbkovia Ząbki 45% · missed
W
Jagiellonia II0–1Troszyn14 Oct · away
Pick: Jagiellonia II 62% · missed
D
Troszyn3–3Weszlo29 Aug · home
Pick: Weszlo 51% · missed

About this match

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. and Troszyn meet in III Liga - Group 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Polonia Lidzbark Warm. win 43.3%, draw 20.2%, Troszyn win 36.5%. The pick is Polonia Lidzbark Warm. win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.2%. Both teams to score: 65.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.