ScoreProb
1. Division Cyprus Round 9 2026

Olympiakos vs Apollon Limassol

Olympiakos Home · Elo 1,517
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Apollon Limassol Away · Elo 1,625
GSP Stadium, Nicosia Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Apollon Limassol win
Olympiakos win
24.0%
Draw
25.2%
Apollon Limassol winPick
50.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.1%
No48.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.5%
Under 2.548.5%

How much we know

Olympiakos history48 matches
Apollon Limassol history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Apollon Limassol are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Apollon Limassol are rated 108 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,625 against 1,517. On rating alone Apollon Limassol would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Apollon Limassol score more

    1.25 goals a game over 48 matches for Olympiakos, against 1.49 over 72 for Apollon Limassol.

  • Defences are close

    Olympiakos concede 1.21 a game, Apollon Limassol 1.18.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Olympiakos matches, against 50% for Apollon Limassol. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 11 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Olympiakos
Apollon Limassol
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1517.4
ELO
1625.0
48
ELO · Matches
72
1517.4
Current Team ELO
1625.0
1625.0
Current Opponent ELO
1517.4
-107.6
Current ELO Difference
107.6
0.35
Expected score
0.65
48
History Matches
72
0.01
Residual Mean
0.09
51.04
Overperformance
56.78
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
0.40
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.90
1.30
Goals for per game
1.90
1.40
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.30
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.58
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.97
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.18
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
72
1.50
PPG
1.65
41.7%
Win rate
47.2%
25.0%
Draw rate
23.6%
33.3%
Loss rate
29.2%
72.9%
Over 1.5 rate
73.6%
45.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
36
1.65
PPG
1.50
43.5%
Win rate
41.7%
34.8%
Draw rate
25.0%
21.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
73.9%
Over 1.5 rate
63.9%
43.5%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
30.6%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
23
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.25
Goals for per game
1.49
72.9%
Scoring rate
77.8%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.30
Goals for per game
1.31
73.9%
Scoring rate
75.0%
47.8%
BTTS rate
44.4%
48
History Matches
72
1.25
Goals Mean
1.49
1.01
Goals Std
1.20
72.9%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
39.6%
Scored 2+ rate
43.1%
10.4%
Scored 3+ rate
19.4%
1.30
Venue Goals Mean
1.31
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.21
Goals against per game
1.18
68.8%
Conceding rate
65.3%
1.04
Goals against per game
1.25
60.9%
Conceding rate
63.9%
48
History Matches
72
1.21
Conceded Mean
1.18
1.15
Conceded Std
1.13
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.1%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
1.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
36.1%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
36.1%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
72
0.98
Result entropy
0.96
1.63
Goal Difference Std
1.69
1.92
Stability score
4.02
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
72
19
Lead Matches
32
68.4%
Lead Win Rate
78.1%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.84
11
Trailing Matches
17
9.1%
Non-loss rate
29.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
17.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
176.0
Rest days
88.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
25
Normal Rest History Matches
45
1.60
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.73
21
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.55
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
7
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.56
Portability PPG Std
0.50
1.12
Portability PPG Range
1.31
47.14
Portability Score
50.08
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-107.6
PPG-0.15
GF-0.24
GA0.03
PPG0.15
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-24
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate4.9%
History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate3.0%
Failed-to-score rate1.1%
History Matches-24
Goals Mean-0.24
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.20
History Matches-24
Conceded Mean0.03
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.30
History Matches-24
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score-2.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.21
Eligible Matches-24
Lead Matches-13
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches-24
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-4
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range-0.19
Portability Score-2.93
Rest days88.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-20
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.21
Current Team ELO-107.6
Current Opponent ELO107.6
Current ELO Difference-215.1
Expected score-0.30
History Matches-24
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Olympiakos

L
Karmiotissa1–0Olympiakos30 Oct · away
Pick: Karmiotissa 38% · hit
D
Olympiakos1–1Krasava Ypsonas24 Oct · home
Pick: Olympiakos 43% · missed
D
Omonia Nicosia2–2Olympiakos19 Oct · away
Pick: Omonia Nicosia 66% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Apollon Limassol

D
Apollon Limassol2–2Pafos31 Oct · home
Pick: Pafos 43% · missed
W
Karmiotissa0–5Apollon Limassol25 Oct · away
Pick: Apollon Limassol 53% · hit
W
Apollon Limassol4–2Nea Salamis17 Oct · home
Pick: Apollon Limassol 51% · hit
D
Aris2–2Apollon Limassol29 Aug · away
Pick: Apollon Limassol 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Olympiakos and Apollon Limassol meet in 1. Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at GSP Stadium, Nicosia. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Olympiakos win 24.0%, draw 25.2%, Apollon Limassol win 50.8%. The pick is Apollon Limassol win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.5%. Both teams to score: 51.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.