ScoreProb
Cup Kazakhstan Final 2026

Ordabasy vs Kaisar

Ordabasy Home · Elo 1,650
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kaisar Away · Elo 1,465
Astana Arena Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ordabasy win
Ordabasy winPick
60.3%
Draw
24.1%
Kaisar win
15.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.3%
No49.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.5%
Under 2.549.5%

How much we know

Ordabasy history64 matches
Kaisar history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.3%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Ordabasy are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ordabasy are rated 185 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,650 against 1,465. On rating alone Ordabasy would be expected to take 74% of the points on offer.

  • Ordabasy score far more

    1.63 goals a game over 64 matches for Ordabasy, against 0.95 over 58 for Kaisar.

  • Ordabasy concede fewer

    Ordabasy concede 0.89 a game, Kaisar 1.34.

  • Ordabasy games more often go over 2.5 goals

    48% of Ordabasy matches, against 40% for Kaisar. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ordabasy
Kaisar@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1649.9
ELO
1465.1
64
ELO · Matches
58
1649.9
Current Team ELO
1465.1
1465.1
Current Opponent ELO
1649.9
184.9
Current ELO Difference
-184.9
0.74
Expected score
0.26
64
History Matches
58
0.12
Residual Mean
-0.03
59.01
Overperformance
48.14
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.80
2.40
Goals for per game
1.80
0.80
Goals against per game
2.00
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
1.00
2.20
Goals for per game
1.20
0.90
Goals against per game
1.30
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
58
1.86
PPG
1.02
53.1%
Win rate
19.0%
26.6%
Draw rate
44.8%
20.3%
Loss rate
36.2%
68.8%
Over 1.5 rate
70.7%
48.4%
Over 2.5 rate
39.7%
26.6%
Over 3.5 rate
19.0%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
28
2.09
PPG
0.79
60.6%
Win rate
17.9%
27.3%
Draw rate
25.0%
12.1%
Loss rate
57.1%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
82.1%
39.4%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
24.2%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
33
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.63
Goals for per game
0.95
79.7%
Scoring rate
67.2%
48.4%
BTTS rate
60.3%
1.70
Goals for per game
0.96
81.8%
Scoring rate
64.3%
45.5%
BTTS rate
60.7%
2.60
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
64
History Matches
58
1.63
Goals Mean
0.95
1.34
Goals Std
0.80
79.7%
Scored 1+ rate
67.2%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
25.9%
18.8%
Scored 3+ rate
1.7%
1.70
Venue Goals Mean
0.96
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.89
Goals against per game
1.34
57.8%
Conceding rate
77.6%
0.70
Goals against per game
1.86
54.5%
Conceding rate
92.9%
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
64
History Matches
58
0.89
Conceded Mean
1.34
0.99
Conceded Std
1.20
21.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.8%
6.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.8%
0.70
Venue Conceded Mean
1.86
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
42.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
20.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.8%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
7.1%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
42.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
20.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.8%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
7.1%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
42.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
58
0.92
Result entropy
0.95
1.62
Goal Difference Std
1.29
7.89
Stability score
5.08
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
57
25
Lead Matches
17
84.0%
Lead Win Rate
47.1%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.61
14
Trailing Matches
13
42.9%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.92
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
79.92
Rest days
73.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
40
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.73
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
20
Long Rest History Matches
27
2.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.07
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
2.00
100.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
0.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.17
5
Current Competition Matches
5
3.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
1.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.80
7
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.50
1.65
Portability PPG Range
1.09
45.24
Portability Score
49.88
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO184.9
PPG0.84
GF0.68
GA-0.45
PPG1.00
PPG1.31
PPG1.60
PPG1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate19.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate38.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.68
Goals Std0.54
Scored 1+ rate12.4%
Scored 2+ rate24.1%
Scored 3+ rate17.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.73
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.45
Conceded Std-0.21
Clean-sheet rate19.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-1.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.06
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.34
Stability score2.81
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.47
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate36.9%
Lead Points Retention0.27
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate19.8%
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.40
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.56
Portability Score-4.64
Rest days6.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.73
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.98
Current Team ELO184.9
Current Opponent ELO-184.9
Current ELO Difference369.7
Expected score0.49
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.14
Overperformance10.87
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ordabasy

L
Irtysh2–0Ordabasy31 Oct · away
Pick: Ordabasy 52% · missed
D
Ordabasy1–1Zhenys24 Oct · home
Pick: Ordabasy 60% · missed
W
Aktobe1–3Ordabasy17 Oct · away
Pick: Ordabasy 41% · hit
W
Ordabasy3–0Kyzyl-Zhar29 Aug · home
Pick: Ordabasy 68% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Kaisar

L
Zhenys2–1Kaisar31 Oct · away
Pick: Zhenys 50% · hit
D
FC Astana0–0Kaisar25 Oct · away
Pick: FC Astana 60% · missed
L
Zhetysu2–1Kaisar17 Oct · away
Pick: Zhetysu 38% · hit
L
Kaisar2–3Okzhetpes29 Aug · home
Pick: Kaisar 41% · missed
L
FK Tobol Kostanay3–2Kaisar25 Aug · away
Pick: FK Tobol Kostanay 53% · hit

About this match

Ordabasy and Kaisar meet in Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Astana Arena. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Ordabasy win 60.3%, draw 24.1%, Kaisar win 15.6%. The pick is Ordabasy win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.5%. Both teams to score: 50.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.