ScoreProb
Elitettan Sweden Round 25 2026

Örebro SK W vs Trelleborg W

Örebro SK W Home · Elo 1,475
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Trelleborg W Away · Elo 1,548
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Örebro SK W win
Örebro SK W winPick
38.6%
Draw
25.0%
Trelleborg W win
36.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.0%
No41.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.9%
Under 2.540.1%

How much we know

Örebro SK W history43 matches
Trelleborg W history41 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Örebro SK W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Trelleborg W are rated 73 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,548 against 1,475. On rating alone Trelleborg W would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Trelleborg W score more

    1.37 goals a game over 43 matches for Örebro SK W, against 1.83 over 41 for Trelleborg W.

  • Trelleborg W concede fewer

    Örebro SK W concede 1.47 a game, Trelleborg W 1.32.

  • Trelleborg W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    58% of Örebro SK W matches, against 68% for Trelleborg W. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Örebro SK W
Trelleborg W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1475.3
ELO
1548.5
43
ELO · Matches
41
1475.3
Current Team ELO
1548.5
1548.5
Current Opponent ELO
1475.3
-73.20
Current ELO Difference
73.20
0.40
Expected score
0.60
43
History Matches
41
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.06
47.93
Overperformance
54.20
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
2.00
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.50
1.20
Goals for per game
1.50
1.80
Goals against per game
1.70
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.73
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.09
Overall performance9 signals
90
43
Matches
41
1.26
PPG
1.83
37.2%
Win rate
56.1%
14.0%
Draw rate
14.6%
48.8%
Loss rate
29.3%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
78.0%
58.1%
Over 2.5 rate
68.3%
30.2%
Over 3.5 rate
43.9%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
19
1.29
PPG
1.58
38.1%
Win rate
47.4%
14.3%
Draw rate
15.8%
47.6%
Loss rate
36.8%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
84.2%
76.2%
Over 2.5 rate
68.4%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
42.1%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
21
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.37
Goals for per game
1.83
79.1%
Scoring rate
80.5%
55.8%
BTTS rate
53.7%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.68
85.7%
Scoring rate
84.2%
61.9%
BTTS rate
63.2%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.53
73.3%
Scoring rate
86.7%
60.0%
BTTS rate
53.3%
43
History Matches
41
1.37
Goals Mean
1.83
1.12
Goals Std
1.34
79.1%
Scored 1+ rate
80.5%
34.9%
Scored 2+ rate
53.7%
16.3%
Scored 3+ rate
34.1%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.68
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.47
Goals against per game
1.32
74.4%
Conceding rate
68.3%
1.62
Goals against per game
1.53
76.2%
Conceding rate
73.7%
1.53
Goals against per game
1.60
86.7%
Conceding rate
60.0%
43
History Matches
41
1.47
Conceded Mean
1.32
1.19
Conceded Std
1.31
48.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.7%
16.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.5%
1.62
Venue Conceded Mean
1.53
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
20.9%
Failed-to-score rate
19.5%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
20.9%
Failed-to-score rate
19.5%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
43
History Matches
41
0.90
Result entropy
0.88
1.76
Goal Difference Std
2.05
9.64
Stability score
12.15
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
41
13
Lead Matches
13
61.5%
Lead Win Rate
84.6%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.87
13
Trailing Matches
11
15.4%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
41
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.17
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.04
Rest days
78.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
21
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.14
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.68
20
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.45
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.88
Competition & season17 signals
170
15
Matches
15
1.20
PPG
1.60
33.3%
Win rate
46.7%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
46.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
15
Current Competition Matches
15
1.20
Current Competition PPG
1.60
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.07
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.03
Portability PPG Std
0.22
0.07
Portability PPG Range
0.44
93.53
Portability Score
69.44
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
43
Clean History Matches
41
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-73.20
PPG-0.57
GF-0.46
GA0.15
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.29
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate1.4%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.46
Goals Std-0.22
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Goals Mean-0.16
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.04
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.15
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate17.1%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.86
History Matches2
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.29
Stability score-2.51
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.73
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.23
Lead Points Retention-0.18
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.27
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.19
Portability PPG Range-0.37
Portability Score24.08
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.54
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.43
Current Team ELO-73.20
Current Opponent ELO73.20
Current ELO Difference-146.4
Expected score-0.21
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Örebro SK W

L
Umeå W3–0Örebro SK W1 Nov · away
Pick: Umeå W 57% · hit
L
Örebro SK W1–4Elfsborg W24 Oct · home
Pick: Elfsborg W 56% · hit
L
Örebro SK W0–4Göteborg W18 Oct · home
Pick: Göteborg W 66% · hit
D
Alingsås W1–1Örebro SK W29 Aug · away
Pick: Örebro SK W 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Trelleborg W

W
Linköping W0–2Trelleborg W31 Oct · away
Pick: Linköping W 57% · missed
L
Trelleborg W0–4Umeå W24 Oct · home
Pick: Umeå W 42% · hit
L
Enskede W3–1Trelleborg W18 Oct · away
Pick: Trelleborg W 43% · missed
L
Husqvarna W1–0Trelleborg W29 Aug · away
Pick: Husqvarna W 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Örebro SK W and Trelleborg W meet in Elitettan on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Örebro SK W win 38.6%, draw 25.0%, Trelleborg W win 36.4%. The pick is Örebro SK W win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.9%. Both teams to score: 59.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.