ScoreProb
Major League Soccer United States Round 34 2026

Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution

Orlando City SC Home · Elo 1,468
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
New England Revolution Away · Elo 1,499
Exploria Stadium, Orlando Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: New England Revolution win
Orlando City SC win
35.5%
Draw
21.7%
New England Revolution winPick
42.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.5%
No39.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.7%
Under 2.535.3%

How much we know

Orlando City SC history41 matches
New England Revolution history36 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why New England Revolution are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • New England Revolution are rated 31 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,499 against 1,468. On rating alone New England Revolution would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.59 goals a game over 41 matches for Orlando City SC, against 1.67 over 36 for New England Revolution.

  • New England Revolution concede fewer

    Orlando City SC concede 2.07 a game, New England Revolution 1.31.

  • Orlando City SC games more often go over 2.5 goals

    76% of Orlando City SC matches, against 56% for New England Revolution. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Orlando City SC
New England Revolution
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1467.9
ELO
1499.1
41
ELO · Matches
36
1467.9
Current Team ELO
1499.1
1499.1
Current Opponent ELO
1467.9
-31.21
Current ELO Difference
31.21
0.46
Expected score
0.54
41
History Matches
36
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.01
47.63
Overperformance
49.57
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.30
1.80
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.35
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.95
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.84
Overall performance9 signals
90
41
Matches
36
1.12
PPG
1.39
29.3%
Win rate
38.9%
24.4%
Draw rate
22.2%
46.3%
Loss rate
38.9%
85.4%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
75.6%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
51.2%
Over 3.5 rate
30.6%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
19
1.24
PPG
1.05
33.3%
Win rate
26.3%
23.8%
Draw rate
26.3%
42.9%
Loss rate
47.4%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
63.2%
76.2%
Over 2.5 rate
47.4%
47.6%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
21
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.59
Goals for per game
1.67
82.9%
Scoring rate
69.4%
75.6%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.81
Goals for per game
1.21
90.5%
Scoring rate
68.4%
85.7%
BTTS rate
42.1%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.65
73.3%
Scoring rate
70.6%
60.0%
BTTS rate
58.8%
41
History Matches
36
1.59
Goals Mean
1.67
1.23
Goals Std
1.70
82.9%
Scored 1+ rate
69.4%
43.9%
Scored 2+ rate
47.2%
17.1%
Scored 3+ rate
22.2%
1.81
Venue Goals Mean
1.21
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.07
Goals against per game
1.31
85.4%
Conceding rate
72.2%
1.86
Goals against per game
1.42
90.5%
Conceding rate
63.2%
2.47
Goals against per game
1.41
86.7%
Conceding rate
82.4%
41
History Matches
36
2.07
Conceded Mean
1.31
1.55
Conceded Std
1.13
63.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.1%
26.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.4%
1.86
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
9.5%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
9.5%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
14.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
9.5%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
9.5%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
14.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
41
History Matches
36
0.97
Result entropy
0.97
2.04
Goal Difference Std
2.14
3.50
Stability score
2.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
41
Eligible Matches
34
16
Lead Matches
12
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.58
Lead Points Retention
0.89
13
Trailing Matches
10
23.1%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
15.4%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
34
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.78
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
1.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
76.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.57
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
14
Normal Rest History Matches
14
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.71
19
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
15
Matches
17
0.93
PPG
1.41
26.7%
Win rate
41.2%
13.3%
Draw rate
17.6%
60.0%
Loss rate
41.2%
86.7%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
70.6%
46.7%
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
2.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.21
15
Current Competition Matches
17
0.93
Current Competition PPG
1.41
-1.07
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.24
7
Competition Season Count
4
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.32
Portability PPG Std
0.27
0.88
Portability PPG Range
0.66
61.05
Portability Score
64.61
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
41
Clean History Matches
36
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-31.21
PPG-0.27
GF-0.08
GA0.77
PPG-0.48
PPG0.19
PPG0.00
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.27
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.08
Goals Std-0.47
Scored 1+ rate13.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.47
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.77
Conceded Std0.43
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate27.3%
Conceded 3+ rate7.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.44
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.76
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score0.79
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.11
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.31
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate3.1%
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.70
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG-0.48
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.30
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.23
Portability Score-3.56
Rest days0.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.43
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.29
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.61
Current Team ELO-31.21
Current Opponent ELO31.21
Current ELO Difference-62.43
Expected score-0.09
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-1.94
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Orlando City SC

L
Charlotte4–0Orlando City SC31 Oct · away
Pick: Charlotte 59% · hit
D
Chicago Fire2–2Orlando City SC29 Oct · away
Pick: Chicago Fire 70% · missed
D
Orlando City SC2–2New York City FC24 Oct · home
Pick: New York City FC 44% · missed
W
Orlando City SC4–1DC United17 Oct · home
Pick: Orlando City SC 46% · hit
D
Toronto FC3–3Orlando City SC14 Oct · away
Pick: Toronto FC 49% · missed

New England Revolution

L
New England Revolution1–2Inter Miami2 Nov · home
Pick: Inter Miami 46% · hit
W
New England Revolution3–2New York Red Bulls28 Oct · home
Pick: New England Revolution 46% · hit
W
Philadelphia Union1–2New England Revolution24 Oct · away
Pick: Philadelphia Union 42% · missed
W
New England Revolution1–0Chicago Fire17 Oct · home
Pick: Chicago Fire 42% · missed
W
FC Cincinnati2–3New England Revolution14 Oct · away
Pick: FC Cincinnati 54% · missed

About this match

Orlando City SC and New England Revolution meet in Major League Soccer on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Exploria Stadium, Orlando. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Orlando City SC win 35.5%, draw 21.7%, New England Revolution win 42.8%. The pick is New England Revolution win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.7%. Both teams to score: 60.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.