ScoreProb
Serie C - Girone A Italy Girone A - 14 2026

Ospitaletto vs Dolomiti Bellunesi

Ospitaletto Home · Elo 1,490
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dolomiti Bellunesi Away · Elo 1,458
Stadio Comunale Gino Corioni, Ospitaletto Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ospitaletto win
Ospitaletto winPick
49.6%
Draw
25.8%
Dolomiti Bellunesi win
24.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.0%
No48.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.4%
Under 2.547.6%

How much we know

Ospitaletto history62 matches
Dolomiti Bellunesi history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.

Why Ospitaletto are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ospitaletto are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,490 against 1,458. On rating alone Ospitaletto would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.23 goals a game over 62 matches for Ospitaletto, against 1.32 over 60 for Dolomiti Bellunesi.

  • Ospitaletto concede fewer

    Ospitaletto concede 1.26 a game, Dolomiti Bellunesi 1.58.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Ospitaletto matches, against 52% for Dolomiti Bellunesi. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ospitaletto
Dolomiti Bellunesi@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1490.1
ELO
1458.1
62
ELO · Matches
60
1490.1
Current Team ELO
1458.1
1458.1
Current Opponent ELO
1490.1
32.07
Current ELO Difference
-32.07
0.55
Expected score
0.45
62
History Matches
60
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.04
49.47
Overperformance
47.15
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.90
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.77
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.11
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
60
1.23
PPG
1.27
29.0%
Win rate
33.3%
35.5%
Draw rate
26.7%
35.5%
Loss rate
40.0%
72.6%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
51.6%
Over 2.5 rate
51.7%
25.8%
Over 3.5 rate
31.7%
1.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
31
1.39
PPG
1.03
35.5%
Win rate
25.8%
32.3%
Draw rate
25.8%
32.3%
Loss rate
48.4%
83.9%
Over 1.5 rate
93.5%
54.8%
Over 2.5 rate
64.5%
22.6%
Over 3.5 rate
41.9%
1.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
31
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.23
Goals for per game
1.32
72.6%
Scoring rate
75.0%
59.7%
BTTS rate
58.3%
1.42
Goals for per game
1.29
80.6%
Scoring rate
71.0%
64.5%
BTTS rate
64.5%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
62
History Matches
60
1.23
Goals Mean
1.32
0.99
Goals Std
1.15
72.6%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
37.1%
Scored 2+ rate
36.7%
12.9%
Scored 3+ rate
11.7%
1.42
Venue Goals Mean
1.29
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.26
Goals against per game
1.58
74.2%
Conceding rate
76.7%
1.26
Goals against per game
2.06
74.2%
Conceding rate
90.3%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
62
History Matches
60
1.26
Conceded Mean
1.58
1.00
Conceded Std
1.35
38.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.0%
11.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.7%
1.26
Venue Conceded Mean
2.06
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
27.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
9.7%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
27.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
9.7%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
60
1.00
Result entropy
0.99
1.28
Goal Difference Std
1.77
0.39
Stability score
1.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
59
11
Lead Matches
16
63.6%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.77
15
Trailing Matches
17
20.0%
Non-loss rate
17.6%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.15
Rest days
81.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
41
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.27
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.17
20
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.20
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.27
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
8
Competition Season Count
8
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.65
Portability PPG Std
0.71
1.50
Portability PPG Range
1.74
43.64
Portability Score
41.22
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO32.07
PPG-0.04
GF-0.09
GA-0.33
PPG0.00
PPG0.35
PPG0.00
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate2.5%
Failed-to-score rate2.4%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate16.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.09
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate0.4%
Scored 3+ rate1.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.51
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.33
Conceded Std-0.35
Clean-sheet rate2.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.46
History Matches2
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.49
Stability score-0.83
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.38
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate2.4%
Trailing Win Rate13.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.24
Portability Score2.42
Rest days2.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.10
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Current Team ELO32.07
Current Opponent ELO-32.07
Current ELO Difference64.15
Expected score0.09
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ospitaletto

D
Ospitaletto0–0Trento31 Oct · home
Pick: Ospitaletto 46% · missed
L
PRO Vercelli2–1Ospitaletto25 Oct · away
Pick: Ospitaletto 38% · missed
L
Ospitaletto2–3Pergolettese18 Oct · home
Pick: Ospitaletto 61% · missed
D
Albinoleffe1–1Ospitaletto31 Aug · away
Pick: Albinoleffe 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Dolomiti Bellunesi

L
Dolomiti Bellunesi0–4Lecco1 Nov · home
Pick: Dolomiti Bellunesi 45% · missed
W
Desenzano Calvina0–1Dolomiti Bellunesi28 Oct · away
Pick: Desenzano Calvina 42% · missed
L
Treviso2–1Dolomiti Bellunesi24 Oct · away
Pick: Dolomiti Bellunesi 39% · missed
L
Dolomiti Bellunesi0–3Trento19 Oct · home
Pick: Dolomiti Bellunesi 39% · missed
L
Dolomiti Bellunesi1–2Novara4 Oct · home
Pick: Dolomiti Bellunesi 50% · missed

About this match

Ospitaletto and Dolomiti Bellunesi meet in Serie C - Girone A on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Comunale Gino Corioni, Ospitaletto. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Ospitaletto win 49.6%, draw 25.8%, Dolomiti Bellunesi win 24.7%. The pick is Ospitaletto win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.4%. Both teams to score: 52.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.