ScoreProb
FA Cup England 1/128-finals 2026

Oxford City vs Leicester

Oxford City Home · Elo 1,537
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Leicester Away · Elo 1,480
Court Place Farm, Oxford Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Oxford City win
Oxford City winPick
44.9%
Draw
26.8%
Leicester win
28.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.0%
No44.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.6%
Under 2.543.4%

How much we know

Oxford City history79 matches
Leicester history77 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Oxford City are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Oxford City are rated 57 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,537 against 1,480. On rating alone Oxford City would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.30 goals a game over 79 matches for Oxford City, against 1.19 over 77 for Leicester.

  • Defences are close

    Oxford City concede 1.46 a game, Leicester 1.51.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    57% of Oxford City matches, against 53% for Leicester. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Oxford City
Leicester
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1537.5
ELO
1480.3
79
ELO · Matches
77
1537.5
Current Team ELO
1480.3
1480.3
Current Opponent ELO
1537.5
57.15
Current ELO Difference
-57.15
0.58
Expected score
0.42
79
History Matches
77
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.02
52.14
Overperformance
48.50
0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.70
1.70
Goals for per game
1.60
0.90
Goals against per game
1.10
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.57
Overall performance9 signals
90
79
Matches
77
1.23
PPG
1.14
32.9%
Win rate
28.6%
24.1%
Draw rate
28.6%
43.0%
Loss rate
42.9%
73.4%
Over 1.5 rate
84.4%
57.0%
Over 2.5 rate
53.2%
30.4%
Over 3.5 rate
26.0%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
42
1.43
PPG
1.07
42.5%
Win rate
23.8%
15.0%
Draw rate
35.7%
42.5%
Loss rate
40.5%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
57.5%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.0%
2.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
40
History Matches
42
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.30
Goals for per game
1.19
72.2%
Scoring rate
72.7%
57.0%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.45
Goals for per game
1.19
77.5%
Scoring rate
76.2%
50.0%
BTTS rate
64.3%
79
History Matches
77
1.30
Goals Mean
1.19
1.25
Goals Std
0.94
72.2%
Scored 1+ rate
72.7%
32.9%
Scored 2+ rate
37.7%
15.2%
Scored 3+ rate
9.1%
1.45
Venue Goals Mean
1.19
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.46
Goals against per game
1.51
75.9%
Conceding rate
81.8%
1.43
Goals against per game
1.57
65.0%
Conceding rate
85.7%
79
History Matches
77
1.46
Conceded Mean
1.51
1.34
Conceded Std
1.08
40.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.8%
15.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.9%
1.43
Venue Conceded Mean
1.57
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
22.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
22.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
79
History Matches
77
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.96
Goal Difference Std
1.57
2.48
Stability score
1.79
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
79
Eligible Matches
76
25
Lead Matches
23
64.0%
Lead Win Rate
60.9%
0.72
Lead Points Retention
0.70
25
Trailing Matches
27
16.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
12.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
79
Halftime Coverage Matches
76
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.24
Rest days
73.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
6
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.83
68
Normal Rest History Matches
49
1.19
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.16
7
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.10
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
9
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.60
Portability PPG Std
0.62
1.50
Portability PPG Range
1.48
45.39
Portability Score
44.65
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
79
Clean History Matches
77
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO57.15
PPG0.08
GF0.11
GA-0.05
PPG0.35
PPG1.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate5.9%
Failed-to-score rate0.6%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate20.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.11
Goals Std0.31
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate6.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.26
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.01
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.05
Conceded Std0.26
Clean-sheet rate5.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.44
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.38
Stability score0.70
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.32
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate3.1%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate4.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range0.02
Portability Score0.74
Rest days3.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.17
Normal Rest History Matches19
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.03
Long Rest History Matches-14
Long Rest Points Per Match0.33
Current Team ELO57.15
Current Opponent ELO-57.15
Current ELO Difference114.3
Expected score0.16
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.64
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Oxford City

L
Oxford City1–3South Shields31 Oct · home
Pick: Oxford City 40% · missed
W
Oxford City3–0Merthyr Town27 Oct · home
Pick: Oxford City 53% · hit
D
Marine1–1Oxford City24 Oct · away
Pick: Oxford City 37% · missed
W
Torquay0–1Oxford City17 Oct · away
Pick: Torquay 44% · missed
W
Worksop Town0–1Oxford City31 Aug · away
Pick: Oxford City 43% · hit

Leicester

D
Leicester2–2Stevenage31 Oct · home
Pick: Leicester 40% · missed
W
Leicester3–0Wigan27 Oct · home
Pick: Leicester 48% · hit
L
Luton2–1Leicester24 Oct · away
Pick: Luton 60% · hit
W
Bromley0–4Leicester20 Oct · away
Pick: Bromley 56% · missed
W
Leicester2–1Doncaster17 Oct · home
Pick: Leicester 37% · hit

About this match

Oxford City and Leicester meet in FA Cup on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. The match is played at Court Place Farm, Oxford. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Oxford City win 44.9%, draw 26.8%, Leicester win 28.3%. The pick is Oxford City win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.6%. Both teams to score: 56.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.