Oxigen Bucuresti vs Progresul Spartac
Match result probability Model pick: Oxigen Bucuresti win
Oxigen Bucuresti winPick
36.8%
Draw
27.2%
Progresul Spartac win
36.0%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes56.6%
No43.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.551.1%
Under 2.548.9%
How much we know
Oxigen Bucuresti history0 matches
Progresul Spartac history32 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Oxigen Bucuresti
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,668 matches.
Why Oxigen Bucuresti are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,500 against 1,513. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Progresul Spartac@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.0
ELO
1512.6
0
ELO · Matches
32
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1512.6
1512.6
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
-12.59
Current ELO Difference
12.59
0.48
Expected score
0.52
0
History Matches
32
—
Residual Mean
0.03
—
Overperformance
51.92
—
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals 160
0
Matches
5
—
PPG
2.60
—
Goals for per game
3.20
—
Goals against per game
0.60
—
Win rate
80.0%
0
Matches
10
—
PPG
1.90
—
Goals for per game
2.40
—
Goals against per game
1.10
—
Win rate
60.0%
—
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.15
—
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
—
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.53
Overall performance9 signals 90
0
Matches
32
—
PPG
1.53
—
Win rate
46.9%
—
Draw rate
12.5%
—
Loss rate
40.6%
—
Over 1.5 rate
78.1%
—
Over 2.5 rate
56.3%
—
Over 3.5 rate
31.3%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.26
Venue performance10 signals 100
0
Matches
14
—
PPG
1.43
—
Win rate
42.9%
—
Draw rate
14.3%
—
Loss rate
42.9%
—
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
—
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
—
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.84
0
History Matches
14
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
—
Goals for per game
1.88
—
Scoring rate
81.3%
—
BTTS rate
62.5%
—
Goals for per game
2.00
—
Scoring rate
85.7%
—
BTTS rate
57.1%
0
History Matches
32
—
Goals Mean
1.88
—
Goals Std
1.75
—
Scored 1+ rate
81.3%
—
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
—
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
—
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
—
Goals against per game
1.38
—
Conceding rate
81.3%
—
Goals against per game
1.64
—
Conceding rate
71.4%
0
History Matches
32
—
Conceded Mean
1.38
—
Conceded Std
1.29
—
Conceded 2+ rate
31.3%
—
Conceded 3+ rate
9.4%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
1.64
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
—
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
—
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
—
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
—
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
—
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
—
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
—
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
—
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
—
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
0
History Matches
32
—
Result entropy
0.89
—
Goal Difference Std
2.26
—
Stability score
10.70
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
0
Eligible Matches
26
0
Lead Matches
8
—
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.83
0
Trailing Matches
5
—
Non-loss rate
0.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
26
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.77
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.12
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
Rest days
79.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
13
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
0
Long Rest History Matches
18
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.11
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
0
Competition Season Count
5
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.48
—
Portability PPG Range
1.07
—
Portability Score
50.83
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
0
Clean History Matches
32
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO-12.59
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-32
History Matches-14
History Matches-32
History Matches-32
History Matches-32
Eligible Matches-26
Lead Matches-8
Trailing Matches-5
Halftime Coverage Matches-26
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-5
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-13
Long Rest History Matches-18
Current Team ELO-12.59
Current Opponent ELO12.59
Current ELO Difference-25.18
Expected score-0.04
History Matches-32
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Oxigen Bucuresti
L
Oxigen Bucuresti0–2Alexandria31 Oct · home
Pick: Oxigen Bucuresti 38% · missed L
Progresul Mogosoaia4–2Oxigen Bucuresti24 Oct · away
Pick: Progresul Mogosoaia 61% · hit L
LPS HD Clinceni3–1Oxigen Bucuresti16 Oct · away
Pick: LPS HD Clinceni 64% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Progresul Spartac
L
LPS HD Clinceni3–2Progresul Spartac30 Oct · away
Pick: LPS HD Clinceni 47% · hit L
Progresul Spartac0–6Petrolul Ploiesti27 Oct · home
Pick: Progresul Spartac 37% · missed D
Progresul Spartac0–0Cetatea24 Oct · home
Pick: Progresul Spartac 39% · missed L
Dinamo Bucureşti II2–0Progresul Spartac16 Oct · away
Pick: Progresul Spartac 51% · missed L
Progresul Spartac2–5Concordia1 Sep · home
Pick: Concordia 55% · hit About this match
Oxigen Bucuresti and Progresul Spartac meet in Liga III - Serie 5 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Oxigen Bucuresti win 36.8%, draw 27.2%, Progresul Spartac win 36.0%. The pick is Oxigen Bucuresti win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.1%. Both teams to score: 56.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.