Progresul Mogosoaia vs Alexandria
Match result probability Model pick: Progresul Mogosoaia win
Progresul Mogosoaia winPick
42.0%
Draw
21.8%
Alexandria win
36.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes58.3%
No41.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.558.9%
Under 2.541.1%
How much we know
Progresul Mogosoaia history24 matches
Alexandria history29 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Progresul Mogosoaia
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Progresul Mogosoaia are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Progresul Mogosoaia are rated 31 Elo points higher
Elo 1,490 against 1,459. On rating alone Progresul Mogosoaia would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.46 goals a game over 24 matches for Progresul Mogosoaia, against 1.34 over 29 for Alexandria.
-
Defences are close
Progresul Mogosoaia concede 1.67 a game, Alexandria 1.66.
-
Progresul Mogosoaia games more often go over 2.5 goals
67% of Progresul Mogosoaia matches, against 59% for Alexandria. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 13 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Alexandria@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1490.0
ELO
1459.2
24
ELO · Matches
29
1490.0
Current Team ELO
1459.2
1459.2
Current Opponent ELO
1490.0
30.76
Current ELO Difference
-30.76
0.54
Expected score
0.46
24
History Matches
29
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.08
49.34
Overperformance
45.37
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.80
2.60
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.20
1.70
Goals for per game
1.30
1.50
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.57
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.45
Overall performance9 signals 90
24
Matches
29
1.29
PPG
1.10
41.7%
Win rate
31.0%
4.2%
Draw rate
17.2%
54.2%
Loss rate
51.7%
79.2%
Over 1.5 rate
82.8%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
58.6%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
31.0%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals 100
13
Matches
16
1.85
PPG
0.94
61.5%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
18.8%
38.5%
Loss rate
56.3%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
61.5%
Over 2.5 rate
68.8%
38.5%
Over 3.5 rate
43.8%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
13
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.46
Goals for per game
1.34
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.9%
50.0%
BTTS rate
55.2%
1.92
Goals for per game
1.38
84.6%
Scoring rate
75.0%
46.2%
BTTS rate
62.5%
24
History Matches
29
1.46
Goals Mean
1.34
1.22
Goals Std
1.03
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
75.9%
41.7%
Scored 2+ rate
44.8%
20.8%
Scored 3+ rate
10.3%
1.92
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.67
Goals against per game
1.66
70.8%
Conceding rate
79.3%
1.31
Goals against per game
2.00
61.5%
Conceding rate
87.5%
24
History Matches
29
1.67
Conceded Mean
1.66
1.40
Conceded Std
1.37
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.3%
33.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.1%
1.31
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
24
History Matches
29
0.75
Result entropy
0.92
2.08
Goal Difference Std
1.84
24.51
Stability score
8.32
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
17
Eligible Matches
15
3
Lead Matches
4
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.75
6
Trailing Matches
6
33.3%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
17
Halftime Coverage Matches
15
0.35
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
1.18
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
1.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.33
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
86.90
Rest days
100.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
13
Normal Rest History Matches
12
1.23
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
10
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.81
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.40
Portability PPG Std
0.71
0.81
Portability PPG Range
1.42
55.26
Portability Score
41.38
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
24
Clean History Matches
29
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO30.76
PPG0.19
GF0.11
GA0.01
PPG0.91
PPG1.60
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate8.5%
Failed-to-score rate0.9%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate26.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.11
Goals Std0.20
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate10.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.55
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.26
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.01
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate8.5%
Conceded 2+ rate1.7%
Conceded 3+ rate9.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.69
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.65
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.16
Goal Difference Std0.24
Stability score16.19
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.91
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate33.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.30
Portability PPG Range-0.61
Portability Score13.88
Rest days-14.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.27
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.69
Current Team ELO30.76
Current Opponent ELO-30.76
Current ELO Difference61.53
Expected score0.09
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance3.97
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.24
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Progresul Mogosoaia
L
Axi Adunații-Copăceni2–0Progresul Mogosoaia30 Oct · away
Pick: Progresul Mogosoaia 40% · missed W
Progresul Mogosoaia4–2Oxigen Bucuresti24 Oct · home
Pick: Progresul Mogosoaia 61% · hit L
FCSB II5–2Progresul Mogosoaia16 Oct · away
Pick: FCSB II 43% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Alexandria
W
Oxigen Bucuresti0–2Alexandria31 Oct · away
Pick: Oxigen Bucuresti 38% · missed L
Alexandria0–3LPS HD Clinceni23 Oct · home
Pick: LPS HD Clinceni 46% · hit D
Cetatea1–1Alexandria16 Oct · away
Pick: Cetatea 56% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Progresul Mogosoaia and Alexandria meet in Liga III - Serie 5 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Progresul Mogosoaia win 42.0%, draw 21.8%, Alexandria win 36.2%. The pick is Progresul Mogosoaia win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.9%. Both teams to score: 58.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.