ScoreProb
Regionalliga - West Germany West - 13 2026

Paderborn II vs Bochum II

Paderborn II Home · Elo 1,518
Thu 12 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bochum II Away · Elo 1,527
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Paderborn II win
Paderborn II winPick
43.5%
Draw
26.6%
Bochum II win
29.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.8%
No42.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.5%
Under 2.540.5%

How much we know

Paderborn II history60 matches
Bochum II history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    12 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.5%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,277 matches.

Why Paderborn II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,518 against 1,527. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.57 goals a game over 60 matches for Paderborn II, against 1.69 over 62 for Bochum II.

  • Defences are close

    Paderborn II concede 1.27 a game, Bochum II 1.39.

  • Bochum II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Paderborn II matches, against 63% for Bochum II. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Paderborn II
Bochum II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1518.4
ELO
1527.4
60
ELO · Matches
62
1518.4
Current Team ELO
1527.4
1527.4
Current Opponent ELO
1518.4
-9.01
Current ELO Difference
9.01
0.49
Expected score
0.51
60
History Matches
62
0.03
Residual Mean
0.02
51.90
Overperformance
51.19
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
2.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.10
1.70
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.42
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.95
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.42
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
62
1.32
PPG
1.42
35.0%
Win rate
37.1%
26.7%
Draw rate
30.6%
38.3%
Loss rate
32.3%
81.7%
Over 1.5 rate
83.9%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
62.9%
35.0%
Over 3.5 rate
41.9%
2.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
33
1.73
PPG
1.42
51.5%
Win rate
39.4%
18.2%
Draw rate
24.2%
30.3%
Loss rate
36.4%
87.9%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
33
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.57
Goals for per game
1.69
71.7%
Scoring rate
83.9%
51.7%
BTTS rate
58.1%
1.97
Goals for per game
1.52
75.8%
Scoring rate
81.8%
42.4%
BTTS rate
54.5%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
60
History Matches
62
1.57
Goals Mean
1.69
1.55
Goals Std
1.19
71.7%
Scored 1+ rate
83.9%
43.3%
Scored 2+ rate
53.2%
21.7%
Scored 3+ rate
22.6%
1.97
Venue Goals Mean
1.52
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.27
Goals against per game
1.39
71.7%
Conceding rate
67.7%
1.09
Goals against per game
1.39
60.6%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.75
Goals against per game
1.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
60
History Matches
62
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.39
1.12
Conceded Std
1.37
36.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.9%
13.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.5%
1.09
Venue Conceded Mean
1.39
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
28.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
28.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
62
0.99
Result entropy
1.00
2.13
Goal Difference Std
2.01
1.01
Stability score
0.30
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
61
18
Lead Matches
27
72.2%
Lead Win Rate
70.4%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.78
14
Trailing Matches
18
7.1%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
81.04
Rest days
81.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
34
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.56
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.48
24
Long Rest History Matches
32
1.04
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.41
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.25
PPG
1.00
25.0%
Win rate
25.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.25
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.25
5
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.40
0.64
Portability PPG Range
1.00
68.06
Portability Score
55.29
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-9.01
PPG-0.10
GF-0.13
GA-0.12
PPG0.25
PPG0.30
PPG0.20
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate12.2%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate6.1%
Failed-to-score rate6.1%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.13
Goals Std0.37
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.62
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.12
Conceded Std-0.25
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.45
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.12
Stability score0.71
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.01
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate1.9%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.26
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.17
Portability PPG Range-0.36
Portability Score12.77
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.08
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Current Team ELO-9.01
Current Opponent ELO9.01
Current ELO Difference-18.03
Expected score-0.03
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.71
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Paderborn II

W
Paderborn II3–0Bergisch Gladbach31 Oct · home
Pick: Paderborn II 50% · hit
D
Köln II2–2Paderborn II24 Oct · away
Pick: Köln II 38% · missed
L
Rot-weiss Oberhausen4–0Paderborn II4 Oct · away
Pick: Rot-weiss Oberhausen 51% · hit
L
Paderborn II2–4FC Bocholt29 Aug · home
Pick: Paderborn II 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Bochum II

L
Sportfreunde Siegen5–0Bochum II31 Oct · away
Pick: Sportfreunde Siegen 51% · hit
D
Bochum II3–3FC Bocholt24 Oct · home
Pick: Bochum II 40% · missed
L
Bochum II0–4Köln II1 Sep · home
Pick: Bochum II 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Paderborn II and Bochum II meet in Regionalliga - West on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Paderborn II win 43.5%, draw 26.6%, Bochum II win 29.9%. The pick is Paderborn II win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.5%. Both teams to score: 57.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.