ScoreProb
K League 2 South Korea Round 32 2026

Paju Citizen vs Asan Mugunghwa

Paju Citizen Home · Elo 1,471
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Asan Mugunghwa Away · Elo 1,513
Paju Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Asan Mugunghwa win
Paju Citizen win
33.6%
Draw
25.7%
Asan Mugunghwa winPick
40.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.3%
No48.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.8%
Under 2.550.2%

How much we know

Paju Citizen history54 matches
Asan Mugunghwa history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 22 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 07:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Asan Mugunghwa are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Asan Mugunghwa are rated 42 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,513 against 1,471. On rating alone Asan Mugunghwa would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Asan Mugunghwa score more

    1.04 goals a game over 54 matches for Paju Citizen, against 1.38 over 65 for Asan Mugunghwa.

  • Defences are close

    Paju Citizen concede 1.26 a game, Asan Mugunghwa 1.26.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    44% of Paju Citizen matches, against 48% for Asan Mugunghwa. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Paju Citizen
Asan Mugunghwa
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1470.9
ELO
1512.7
54
ELO · Matches
65
1470.9
Current Team ELO
1512.7
1512.7
Current Opponent ELO
1470.9
-41.73
Current ELO Difference
41.73
0.44
Expected score
0.56
54
History Matches
65
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.01
47.83
Overperformance
51.06
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.18
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
65
1.24
PPG
1.38
35.2%
Win rate
35.4%
18.5%
Draw rate
32.3%
46.3%
Loss rate
32.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
47.7%
20.4%
Over 3.5 rate
27.7%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
31
1.08
PPG
1.16
30.8%
Win rate
29.0%
15.4%
Draw rate
29.0%
53.8%
Loss rate
41.9%
53.8%
Over 1.5 rate
74.2%
42.3%
Over 2.5 rate
41.9%
26.9%
Over 3.5 rate
25.8%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
26
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.04
Goals for per game
1.38
59.3%
Scoring rate
76.9%
38.9%
BTTS rate
55.4%
0.96
Goals for per game
1.26
46.2%
Scoring rate
67.7%
30.8%
BTTS rate
48.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.41
59.1%
Scoring rate
77.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
59.1%
54
History Matches
65
1.04
Goals Mean
1.38
1.05
Goals Std
1.03
59.3%
Scored 1+ rate
76.9%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
44.6%
9.3%
Scored 3+ rate
15.4%
0.96
Venue Goals Mean
1.26
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.26
Goals against per game
1.26
68.5%
Conceding rate
70.8%
1.19
Goals against per game
1.35
69.2%
Conceding rate
71.0%
1.23
Goals against per game
1.23
77.3%
Conceding rate
72.7%
54
History Matches
65
1.26
Conceded Mean
1.26
1.22
Conceded Std
1.15
31.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.8%
18.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.9%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
1.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
40.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
53.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.3%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
40.9%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
31.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
40.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
53.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.3%
31.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
65
0.94
Result entropy
1.00
1.76
Goal Difference Std
1.47
5.67
Stability score
0.09
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
65
11
Lead Matches
19
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
73.7%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.82
13
Trailing Matches
20
23.1%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
15.4%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.88
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
32
Normal Rest History Matches
45
1.25
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.58
20
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.94
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
22
1.14
PPG
1.41
31.8%
Win rate
36.4%
18.2%
Draw rate
31.8%
50.0%
Loss rate
31.8%
54.5%
Over 1.5 rate
77.3%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
31.8%
1.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
22
Current Competition Matches
22
1.14
Current Competition PPG
1.41
-0.23
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.18
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.07
Portability PPG Std
0.29
0.15
Portability PPG Range
0.64
87.01
Portability Score
63.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-41.73
PPG-0.14
GF-0.35
GA0.00
PPG-0.27
PPG-0.08
PPG0.00
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate2.3%
Failed-to-score rate17.7%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate1.7%
Failed-to-score rate21.6%
History Matches-11
Goals Mean-0.35
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.18
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.02
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate2.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate1.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.27
History Matches-11
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.29
Stability score5.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.07
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate8.1%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate5.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.27
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.41
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.22
Portability PPG Range-0.49
Portability Score23.80
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-13
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.41
Current Team ELO-41.73
Current Opponent ELO41.73
Current ELO Difference-83.46
Expected score-0.12
History Matches-11
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Paju Citizen

W
Cheongju1–2Paju Citizen1 Nov · away
Pick: Cheongju 43% · missed
D
Paju Citizen1–1Hwaseong25 Oct · home
Pick: Hwaseong 42% · missed
L
Gimpo Citizen4–1Paju Citizen17 Oct · away
Pick: Gimpo Citizen 56% · hit
L
Gyeongnam FC1–0Paju Citizen29 Aug · away
Pick: Gyeongnam FC 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Asan Mugunghwa

W
Asan Mugunghwa5–1Gimpo Citizen31 Oct · home
Pick: Asan Mugunghwa 37% · hit
W
Suwon City FC0–1Asan Mugunghwa25 Oct · away
Pick: Suwon City FC 51% · missed
D
Gyeongnam FC0–0Asan Mugunghwa17 Oct · away
Pick: Gyeongnam FC 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Paju Citizen and Asan Mugunghwa meet in K League 2 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 07:30 UTC. The match is played at Paju Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Paju Citizen win 33.6%, draw 25.7%, Asan Mugunghwa win 40.8%. The pick is Asan Mugunghwa win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.8%. Both teams to score: 51.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.