ScoreProb
K League 2 South Korea Round 32 2026

Cheonan City vs Busan I Park

Cheonan City Home · Elo 1,405
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Busan I Park Away · Elo 1,534
Cheonan Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Busan I Park win
Cheonan City win
31.7%
Draw
24.1%
Busan I Park winPick
44.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.7%
No45.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.6%
Under 2.546.4%

How much we know

Cheonan City history65 matches
Busan I Park history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Busan I Park are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Busan I Park are rated 129 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,534 against 1,405. On rating alone Busan I Park would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Busan I Park score more

    1.11 goals a game over 65 matches for Cheonan City, against 1.42 over 65 for Busan I Park.

  • Busan I Park concede fewer

    Cheonan City concede 1.60 a game, Busan I Park 1.20.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Cheonan City matches, against 48% for Busan I Park. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cheonan City
Busan I Park
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1405.5
ELO
1534.1
65
ELO · Matches
65
1405.5
Current Team ELO
1534.1
1534.1
Current Opponent ELO
1405.5
-128.6
Current ELO Difference
128.6
0.32
Expected score
0.68
65
History Matches
65
-0.07
Residual Mean
0.03
44.53
Overperformance
52.28
-0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
0.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
1.20
1.10
Goals for per game
1.10
1.70
Goals against per game
1.00
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.26
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
0.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.97
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
65
0.89
PPG
1.54
20.0%
Win rate
41.5%
29.2%
Draw rate
29.2%
50.8%
Loss rate
29.2%
64.6%
Over 1.5 rate
72.3%
50.8%
Over 2.5 rate
47.7%
33.8%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
31
1.00
PPG
1.52
21.9%
Win rate
41.9%
34.4%
Draw rate
25.8%
43.8%
Loss rate
32.3%
56.3%
Over 1.5 rate
67.7%
43.8%
Over 2.5 rate
45.2%
34.4%
Over 3.5 rate
25.8%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
32
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.11
Goals for per game
1.42
63.1%
Scoring rate
72.3%
52.3%
BTTS rate
52.3%
1.16
Goals for per game
1.32
62.5%
Scoring rate
71.0%
46.9%
BTTS rate
51.6%
1.23
Goals for per game
1.73
68.2%
Scoring rate
86.4%
59.1%
BTTS rate
68.2%
65
History Matches
65
1.11
Goals Mean
1.42
1.12
Goals Std
1.21
63.1%
Scored 1+ rate
72.3%
30.8%
Scored 2+ rate
43.1%
12.3%
Scored 3+ rate
18.5%
1.16
Venue Goals Mean
1.32
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
78.5%
Conceding rate
69.2%
1.41
Goals against per game
1.19
71.9%
Conceding rate
71.0%
1.41
Goals against per game
1.36
81.8%
Conceding rate
77.3%
65
History Matches
65
1.60
Conceded Mean
1.20
1.26
Conceded Std
1.07
49.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.4%
21.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.3%
1.41
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
36.9%
Failed-to-score rate
27.7%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
21.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
36.9%
Failed-to-score rate
27.7%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
21.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
65
0.93
Result entropy
0.99
1.40
Goal Difference Std
1.57
6.65
Stability score
1.33
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
65
11
Lead Matches
25
45.5%
Lead Win Rate
84.0%
0.58
Lead Points Retention
0.88
25
Trailing Matches
13
16.0%
Non-loss rate
38.5%
4.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.82
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.77
Rest days
77.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
40
Normal Rest History Matches
44
1.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.41
22
Long Rest History Matches
17
0.64
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.88
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
22
0.95
PPG
1.73
18.2%
Win rate
50.0%
40.9%
Draw rate
22.7%
40.9%
Loss rate
27.3%
59.1%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
59.1%
40.9%
Over 3.5 rate
40.9%
0.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.43
22
Current Competition Matches
22
0.95
Current Competition PPG
1.73
-0.18
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.36
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.38
0.19
Portability PPG Range
0.92
84.37
Portability Score
56.63
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-128.6
PPG-0.65
GF-0.31
GA0.40
PPG-0.77
PPG-0.52
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate9.2%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate8.5%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.31
Goals Std-0.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.18
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.40
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate13.8%
Conceded 3+ rate9.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.26
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.17
Stability score5.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.31
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-14
Lead Win Rate-0.39
Lead Points Retention-0.30
Trailing Matches12
Non-loss rate-0.22
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean0.34
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.77
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.55
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.29
Portability PPG Range-0.74
Portability Score27.74
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.17
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.25
Current Team ELO-128.6
Current Opponent ELO128.6
Current ELO Difference-257.2
Expected score-0.35
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cheonan City

D
Gimhae City3–3Cheonan City1 Nov · away
Pick: Gimhae City 46% · missed
W
Cheonan City3–1Ansan Greeners25 Oct · home
Pick: Cheonan City 56% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Busan I Park

W
Busan I Park3–1Gyeongnam FC25 Oct · home
Pick: Busan I Park 51% · hit
W
Busan I Park2–1Jeonnam Dragons18 Oct · home
Pick: Busan I Park 55% · hit
L
Suwon City FC2–1Busan I Park30 Aug · away
Pick: Suwon City FC 51% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Cheonan City and Busan I Park meet in K League 2 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Cheonan Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Cheonan City win 31.7%, draw 24.1%, Busan I Park win 44.2%. The pick is Busan I Park win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.6%. Both teams to score: 54.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.