ScoreProb
UEFA Europa Conference League World Round 3 2026

Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia

Panathinaikos Home · Elo 1,621
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
CSKA Sofia Away · Elo 1,657
Olympic Stadium of Athens Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Panathinaikos win
30.7%
DrawPick
35.0%
CSKA Sofia win
34.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.9%
No49.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.1%
Under 2.551.9%

How much we know

Panathinaikos history84 matches
CSKA Sofia history83 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why a draw is the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • CSKA Sofia are rated 37 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,657 against 1,621. On rating alone CSKA Sofia would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.45 goals a game over 84 matches for Panathinaikos, against 1.58 over 83 for CSKA Sofia.

  • CSKA Sofia concede fewer

    Panathinaikos concede 1.15 a game, CSKA Sofia 0.77.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Panathinaikos matches, against 45% for CSKA Sofia. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Panathinaikos
CSKA Sofia
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1620.6
ELO
1657.4
84
ELO · Matches
83
1620.6
Current Team ELO
1657.4
1657.4
Current Opponent ELO
1620.6
-36.78
Current ELO Difference
36.78
0.45
Expected score
0.55
84
History Matches
83
0.07
Residual Mean
0.10
55.42
Overperformance
58.10
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.40
1.40
Goals for per game
2.80
1.80
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
2.10
1.90
Goals for per game
1.90
1.30
Goals against per game
0.70
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.58
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.91
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
84
Matches
83
1.61
PPG
1.94
44.0%
Win rate
56.6%
28.6%
Draw rate
24.1%
27.4%
Loss rate
19.3%
77.4%
Over 1.5 rate
69.9%
52.4%
Over 2.5 rate
44.6%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
21.7%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
38
1.98
PPG
1.68
55.0%
Win rate
47.4%
32.5%
Draw rate
26.3%
12.5%
Loss rate
26.3%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.5%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
31.6%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
7.9%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
40
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.45
Goals for per game
1.58
76.2%
Scoring rate
74.7%
57.1%
BTTS rate
39.8%
1.65
Goals for per game
1.24
82.5%
Scoring rate
65.8%
55.0%
BTTS rate
26.3%
1.50
Goals for per game
—
100.0%
Scoring rate
—
100.0%
BTTS rate
—
84
History Matches
83
1.45
Goals Mean
1.58
1.14
Goals Std
1.34
76.2%
Scored 1+ rate
74.7%
45.2%
Scored 2+ rate
47.0%
19.0%
Scored 3+ rate
24.1%
1.65
Venue Goals Mean
1.24
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.15
Goals against per game
0.77
71.4%
Conceding rate
55.4%
0.85
Goals against per game
0.68
62.5%
Conceding rate
52.6%
1.25
Goals against per game
—
100.0%
Conceding rate
—
84
History Matches
83
1.15
Conceded Mean
0.77
1.05
Conceded Std
0.87
28.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
15.7%
10.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.8%
0.85
Venue Conceded Mean
0.68
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
44.6%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.3%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
47.4%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
34.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
44.6%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.3%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
47.4%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
34.2%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
44.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
84
History Matches
83
0.98
Result entropy
0.89
1.63
Goal Difference Std
1.75
2.26
Stability score
10.59
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
83
Eligible Matches
83
26
Lead Matches
35
88.5%
Lead Win Rate
88.6%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.92
18
Trailing Matches
15
33.3%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
22.2%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
83
Halftime Coverage Matches
83
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.95
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
86.10
Rest days
81.17
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
20
Short Rest History Matches
9
2.05
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
46
Normal Rest History Matches
53
1.43
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.91
17
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.59
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
0
1.50
PPG
—
25.0%
Win rate
—
75.0%
Draw rate
—
0.0%
Loss rate
—
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
0.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
4
Current Competition Matches
0
1.50
Current Competition PPG
—
0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
—
10
Competition Season Count
8
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.44
0.81
Portability PPG Range
1.43
61.64
Portability Score
53.23
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
84
Clean History Matches
83
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-36.78
PPG-0.33
GF-0.13
GA0.38
PPG0.29
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.13
Goals Std-0.20
Scored 1+ rate1.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.41
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.44
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.38
Conceded Std0.18
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Conceded 2+ rate12.9%
Conceded 3+ rate5.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.10
History Matches1
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score-8.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.02
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate0.00
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate8.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Current Competition Matches4
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.13
Portability PPG Range-0.62
Portability Score8.40
Rest days4.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches11
Short Rest Points Per Match0.72
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.47
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.66
Current Team ELO-36.78
Current Opponent ELO36.78
Current ELO Difference-73.56
Expected score-0.11
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.68
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Panathinaikos

W
Panathinaikos2–1Aris Thessalonikis28 Oct · home
Pick: Panathinaikos 51% · hit
W
Volos NFC0–1Panathinaikos25 Oct · away
Pick: Panathinaikos 54% · hit
W
Kairat Almaty1–5Panathinaikos22 Oct · away
Pick: Kairat Almaty 47% · missed
W
Panathinaikos5–1Asteras Tripolis18 Oct · home
Pick: Panathinaikos 61% · hit
W
Panathinaikos2–1Borac Banja Luka15 Oct · home
Pick: Panathinaikos 35% · hit

CSKA Sofia

W
CSKA Sofia2–0Ludogorets26 Oct · home
Pick: CSKA Sofia 43% · hit
D
FC Nordsjaelland2–2CSKA Sofia22 Oct · away
Pick: CSKA Sofia 44% · missed
W
Nesebar0–2CSKA Sofia18 Oct · away
Pick: CSKA Sofia 51% · hit
L
CSKA Sofia1–2Monaco15 Oct · home
Pick: CSKA Sofia 59% · missed
W
CSKA Sofia3–1Cherno More Varna30 Aug · home
Pick: CSKA Sofia 70% · hit

About this match

Panathinaikos and CSKA Sofia meet in UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Olympic Stadium of Athens. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Panathinaikos win 30.7%, draw 35.0%, CSKA Sofia win 34.3%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 48.1%. Both teams to score: 50.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.