ScoreProb
Copa do Brasil U20 Brazil Quarter-finals 2026

Paysandu PA U20 vs Palmeiras U20

Paysandu PA U20 Home · Elo 1,525
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Palmeiras U20 Away · Elo 1,776
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Palmeiras U20 win
Paysandu PA U20 win
25.6%
Draw
23.1%
Palmeiras U20 winPick
51.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.4%
No43.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.2%
Under 2.537.8%

How much we know

Paysandu PA U20 history18 matches
Palmeiras U20 history91 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 20:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Palmeiras U20 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Palmeiras U20 are rated 251 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,776 against 1,525. On rating alone Palmeiras U20 would be expected to take 81% of the points on offer.

  • Palmeiras U20 score more

    2.22 goals a game over 18 matches for Paysandu PA U20, against 2.69 over 91 for Palmeiras U20.

  • Defences are close

    Paysandu PA U20 concede 0.83 a game, Palmeiras U20 0.88.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    61% of Paysandu PA U20 matches, against 68% for Palmeiras U20. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Paysandu PA U20
Palmeiras U20
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1524.8
ELO
1775.5
18
ELO · Matches
91
1524.8
Current Team ELO
1775.5
1775.5
Current Opponent ELO
1524.8
-250.7
Current ELO Difference
250.7
0.19
Expected score
0.81
18
History Matches
91
0.07
Residual Mean
0.15
53.18
Overperformance
62.38
-0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
3.00
0.60
Goals for per game
2.40
1.80
Goals against per game
0.00
20.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
2.30
1.00
Goals for per game
2.10
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.85
Overall performance9 signals
90
18
Matches
91
1.83
PPG
2.36
61.1%
Win rate
71.4%
0.0%
Draw rate
22.0%
38.9%
Loss rate
6.6%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
92.3%
61.1%
Over 2.5 rate
68.1%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
46.2%
2.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
Venue performance10 signals
100
9
Matches
43
2.33
PPG
2.35
77.8%
Win rate
72.1%
0.0%
Draw rate
18.6%
22.2%
Loss rate
9.3%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
83.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
51.2%
44.4%
Over 3.5 rate
30.2%
2.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
9
History Matches
43
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.22
Goals for per game
2.69
77.8%
Scoring rate
95.6%
22.2%
BTTS rate
50.5%
2.67
Goals for per game
2.19
88.9%
Scoring rate
93.0%
22.2%
BTTS rate
44.2%
18
History Matches
91
2.22
Goals Mean
2.69
1.99
Goals Std
1.76
77.8%
Scored 1+ rate
95.6%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
78.0%
38.9%
Scored 3+ rate
46.2%
2.67
Venue Goals Mean
2.19
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.83
Goals against per game
0.88
44.4%
Conceding rate
54.9%
0.67
Goals against per game
0.79
33.3%
Conceding rate
51.2%
18
History Matches
91
0.83
Conceded Mean
0.88
1.01
Conceded Std
0.94
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.5%
5.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.5%
0.67
Venue Conceded Mean
0.79
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
55.6%
Clean-sheet rate
45.1%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
4.4%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
48.8%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
7.0%
55.6%
Clean-sheet rate
45.1%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
4.4%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
48.8%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
7.0%
55.6%
Clean-sheet rate
45.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
18
History Matches
91
0.61
Result entropy
0.69
2.75
Goal Difference Std
2.17
39.17
Stability score
31.49
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
16
Eligible Matches
91
6
Lead Matches
60
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.88
5
Trailing Matches
10
20.0%
Non-loss rate
70.0%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
30.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
16
Halftime Coverage Matches
91
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
1.30
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
1.06
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.40
0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
162.1
Rest days
76.10
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
31
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.23
10
Normal Rest History Matches
39
2.10
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.46
7
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.35
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
1.10
Portability PPG Std
0.35
2.57
Portability PPG Range
1.20
31.28
Portability Score
58.66
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
18
Clean History Matches
91
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-250.7
PPG-0.53
GF-0.47
GA-0.05
PPG-0.02
PPG-2.40
PPG-1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-73
Clean-sheet rate10.5%
Failed-to-score rate17.8%
History Matches-34
Clean-sheet rate17.8%
Failed-to-score rate4.1%
History Matches-73
Goals Mean-0.47
Goals Std0.22
Scored 1+ rate-0.18
Scored 2+ rate-0.28
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.48
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.05
History Matches-73
Conceded Mean-0.05
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate10.5%
Conceded 2+ rate5.9%
Conceded 3+ rate0.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.15
History Matches-73
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.58
Stability score7.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.16
Eligible Matches-75
Lead Matches-54
Lead Win Rate16.7%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.50
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-75
First Half Goals For Mean-0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-4
Portability PPG Std0.75
Portability PPG Range1.37
Portability Score-27.38
Rest days86.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-31
Normal Rest History Matches-29
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Long Rest History Matches-13
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.06
Current Team ELO-250.7
Current Opponent ELO250.7
Current ELO Difference-501.4
Expected score-0.62
History Matches-73
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-9.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Paysandu PA U20

W
Paysandu PA U202–0América RN U2021 Oct · home
Pick: Paysandu PA U20 49% · hit
W
Paysandu PA U206–0Independente-AP U207 Oct · home
Pick: Paysandu PA U20 59% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Palmeiras U20

W
Palmeiras U202–0São Paulo U201 Nov · home
Pick: Palmeiras U20 44% · hit
W
São Paulo U202–3Palmeiras U2026 Oct · away
Pick: Palmeiras U20 43% · hit
W
Botafogo U202–4Palmeiras U2022 Oct · away
Pick: Palmeiras U20 55% · hit
W
Palmeiras U203–0Botafogo SP U2018 Oct · home
Pick: Palmeiras U20 57% · hit
W
Palmeiras U204–1Botafogo U2015 Oct · home
Pick: Palmeiras U20 50% · hit

About this match

Paysandu PA U20 and Palmeiras U20 meet in Copa do Brasil U20 on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 20:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Paysandu PA U20 win 25.6%, draw 23.1%, Palmeiras U20 win 51.3%. The pick is Palmeiras U20 win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.2%. Both teams to score: 56.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.