ScoreProb
Copa do Brasil U20 Brazil Quarter-finals 2026

São Paulo U20 vs Ceará U20

São Paulo U20 Home · Elo 1,660
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ceará U20 Away · Elo 1,638
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: São Paulo U20 win
São Paulo U20 winPick
60.1%
Draw
23.1%
Ceará U20 win
16.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.6%
No44.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.8%
Under 2.538.2%

How much we know

São Paulo U20 history86 matches
Ceará U20 history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.1%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why São Paulo U20 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,660 against 1,638. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Ceará U20 score more

    1.90 goals a game over 86 matches for São Paulo U20, against 2.26 over 42 for Ceará U20.

  • Defences are close

    São Paulo U20 concede 0.98 a game, Ceará U20 0.98.

  • Ceará U20 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    48% of São Paulo U20 matches, against 69% for Ceará U20. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
São Paulo U20
Ceará U20
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1660.1
ELO
1637.8
86
ELO · Matches
42
1660.1
Current Team ELO
1637.8
1637.8
Current Opponent ELO
1660.1
22.36
Current ELO Difference
-22.36
0.53
Expected score
0.47
86
History Matches
42
0.10
Residual Mean
0.17
57.76
Overperformance
61.25
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.20
1.80
Goals for per game
2.20
0.60
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
2.40
1.70
Goals for per game
2.80
0.40
Goals against per game
0.70
60.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.80
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.56
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.81
Overall performance9 signals
90
86
Matches
42
1.85
PPG
2.05
52.3%
Win rate
61.9%
27.9%
Draw rate
19.0%
19.8%
Loss rate
19.0%
77.9%
Over 1.5 rate
88.1%
47.7%
Over 2.5 rate
69.0%
32.6%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.28
Venue performance10 signals
100
45
Matches
20
2.04
PPG
1.60
62.2%
Win rate
45.0%
17.8%
Draw rate
25.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
30.0%
82.2%
Over 1.5 rate
85.0%
48.9%
Over 2.5 rate
65.0%
37.8%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
2.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.62
45
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.90
Goals for per game
2.26
80.2%
Scoring rate
85.7%
47.7%
BTTS rate
59.5%
2.20
Goals for per game
1.85
84.4%
Scoring rate
80.0%
44.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
86
History Matches
42
1.90
Goals Mean
2.26
1.60
Goals Std
1.89
80.2%
Scored 1+ rate
85.7%
55.8%
Scored 2+ rate
66.7%
27.9%
Scored 3+ rate
35.7%
2.20
Venue Goals Mean
1.85
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.98
Goals against per game
0.98
58.1%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.93
Goals against per game
1.05
57.8%
Conceding rate
60.0%
86
History Matches
42
0.98
Conceded Mean
0.98
1.05
Conceded Std
0.86
27.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.2%
9.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.8%
0.93
Venue Conceded Mean
1.05
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
41.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
19.8%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
42.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
41.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
19.8%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
42.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
41.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
86
History Matches
42
0.92
Result entropy
0.85
1.92
Goal Difference Std
2.28
7.56
Stability score
15.48
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
86
Eligible Matches
41
39
Lead Matches
22
87.2%
Lead Win Rate
86.4%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.89
16
Trailing Matches
5
31.3%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
86
Halftime Coverage Matches
41
0.98
First Half Goals For Mean
1.17
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.34
0.92
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.12
0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
81.00
Rest days
76.23
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
22
Short Rest History Matches
6
2.18
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.67
46
Normal Rest History Matches
17
1.76
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.65
17
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.59
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.28
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
5
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.65
1.21
Portability PPG Range
1.94
51.35
Portability Score
43.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
86
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO22.36
PPG-0.20
GF-0.37
GA0.00
PPG0.44
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches44
Clean-sheet rate8.5%
Failed-to-score rate5.5%
History Matches25
Clean-sheet rate2.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches44
Goals Mean-0.37
Goals Std-0.29
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.46
History Matches44
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate8.5%
Conceded 2+ rate1.7%
Conceded 3+ rate4.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.02
History Matches44
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.36
Stability score-7.91
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.46
Eligible Matches45
Lead Matches17
Lead Win Rate0.8%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches45
First Half Goals For Mean-0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.18
Portability PPG Range-0.74
Portability Score7.98
Rest days4.77
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches16
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.48
Normal Rest History Matches29
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.11
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.69
Current Team ELO22.36
Current Opponent ELO-22.36
Current ELO Difference44.72
Expected score0.06
History Matches44
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-3.48
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

São Paulo U20

L
Palmeiras U202–0São Paulo U201 Nov · away
Pick: Palmeiras U20 44% · hit
L
São Paulo U202–3Palmeiras U2026 Oct · home
Pick: Palmeiras U20 43% · hit
W
São Paulo U207–0União TO U2021 Oct · home
Pick: São Paulo U20 59% · hit
D
São Paulo U202–2Desportivo Brasil U2017 Oct · home
Pick: São Paulo U20 58% · missed
W
São Paulo U203–1Athletico PR U208 Oct · home
Pick: São Paulo U20 58% · hit

Ceará U20

L
Goiás U202–1Ceará U2021 Oct · away
Pick: Goiás U20 43% · hit
W
Ceará U203–1Goiás U2015 Oct · home
Pick: Ceará U20 45% · hit
W
Ceará U201–0Ferroviario U207 Oct · home
Pick: Ceará U20 71% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

São Paulo U20 and Ceará U20 meet in Copa do Brasil U20 on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: São Paulo U20 win 60.1%, draw 23.1%, Ceará U20 win 16.9%. The pick is São Paulo U20 win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.8%. Both teams to score: 55.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.