ScoreProb
Liga Revelação U23 Portugal Round 11 2026

Penafiel U23 vs Famalicão U23

Penafiel U23 Home · Elo 1,495
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Famalicão U23 Away · Elo 1,595
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Famalicão U23 win
Penafiel U23 win
30.1%
Draw
25.5%
Famalicão U23 winPick
44.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.1%
No39.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.9%
Under 2.533.1%

How much we know

Penafiel U23 history2 matches
Famalicão U23 history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Famalicão U23 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Famalicão U23 are rated 101 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,595 against 1,495. On rating alone Famalicão U23 would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.00 goals a game over 2 matches for Penafiel U23, against 1.87 over 47 for Famalicão U23.

  • Famalicão U23 concede fewer

    Penafiel U23 concede 2.00 a game, Famalicão U23 1.40.

  • Penafiel U23 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    100% of Penafiel U23 matches, against 64% for Famalicão U23. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Penafiel U23
Famalicão U23
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1494.6
ELO
1595.1
2
ELO · Matches
47
1494.6
Current Team ELO
1595.1
1595.1
Current Opponent ELO
1494.6
-100.5
Current ELO Difference
100.5
0.36
Expected score
0.64
2
History Matches
47
-0.14
Residual Mean
0.11
48.76
Overperformance
57.40
-0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
2
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
2.80
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.50
2.00
Goals for per game
1.50
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.34
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.91
Overall performance9 signals
90
2
Matches
47
1.00
PPG
1.81
0.0%
Win rate
51.1%
100.0%
Draw rate
27.7%
0.0%
Loss rate
21.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
89.4%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
63.8%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
36.2%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
22
1.00
PPG
1.68
0.0%
Win rate
45.5%
100.0%
Draw rate
31.8%
0.0%
Loss rate
22.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.33
1
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.00
Goals for per game
1.87
100.0%
Scoring rate
87.2%
100.0%
BTTS rate
66.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.73
100.0%
Scoring rate
77.3%
100.0%
BTTS rate
59.1%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
2
History Matches
47
2.00
Goals Mean
1.87
0.00
Goals Std
1.35
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
87.2%
100.0%
Scored 2+ rate
61.7%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
17.0%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.73
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.00
Goals against per game
1.40
100.0%
Conceding rate
76.6%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.55
100.0%
Conceding rate
77.3%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2
History Matches
47
2.00
Conceded Mean
1.40
0.00
Conceded Std
1.32
100.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.2%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.8%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.55
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
12.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
12.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
2
History Matches
47
0.00
Result entropy
0.94
0.00
Goal Difference Std
2.04
100.0
Stability score
6.43
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
2
Eligible Matches
46
1
Lead Matches
18
0.0%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.33
Lead Points Retention
0.93
0
Trailing Matches
11
—
Non-loss rate
63.6%
—
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
2
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
1.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.96
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.04
Rest days
71.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
1
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.17
0
Long Rest History Matches
27
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.63
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
1.67
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
100.0%
Draw rate
66.7%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
2
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.67
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
1
Competition Season Count
6
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
—
Portability PPG Std
0.13
—
Portability PPG Range
0.33
—
Portability Score
79.90
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
2
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO-100.5
PPG-0.81
GF0.13
GA0.60
PPG-0.67
PPG-0.68
PPG0.00
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-45
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-21
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches-45
Goals Mean0.13
Goals Std-1.35
Scored 1+ rate12.8%
Scored 2+ rate38.3%
Scored 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Goals Mean0.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.92
History Matches-45
Conceded Mean0.60
Conceded Std-1.32
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Conceded 2+ rate63.8%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.34
History Matches-45
Result entropy-0.94
Goal Difference Std-2.04
Stability score93.57
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.99
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.91
Eligible Matches-44
Lead Matches-17
Lead Win Rate-0.89
Lead Points Retention-0.59
Trailing Matches-11
Halftime Coverage Matches-44
First Half Goals For Mean0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.39
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.33
Competition Season Count-5
Eligible Competition Season Count-4
Rest days7.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-17
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.17
Long Rest History Matches-27
Current Team ELO-100.5
Current Opponent ELO100.5
Current ELO Difference-201.1
Expected score-0.28
History Matches-45
Residual Mean-0.24
Overperformance-8.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Penafiel U23

L
Penafiel U232–3Vizela U2327 Oct · home
Pick: Penafiel U23 47% · missed
D
Academico Viseu U230–0Penafiel U2320 Oct · away
Pick: Academico Viseu U23 73% · missed
W
Penafiel U233–1Benfica U2313 Oct · home
Pick: Penafiel U23 47% · hit
D
Penafiel U231–1Leixões U231 Sep · home
Pick: Leixões U23 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Famalicão U23

W
Famalicão U232–0União Leiria U2327 Oct · home
Pick: Famalicão U23 52% · hit
W
Marítimo U230–1Famalicão U2320 Oct · away
Pick: Famalicão U23 43% · hit
W
Famalicão U232–1Estrela U2313 Oct · home
Pick: Famalicão U23 68% · hit
L
Farense U234–3Famalicão U231 Sep · away
Pick: Farense U23 44% · hit
W
Famalicão U232–1Felgueiras U2325 Aug · home
Pick: Famalicão U23 78% · hit

About this match

Penafiel U23 and Famalicão U23 meet in Liga Revelação U23 on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Penafiel U23 win 30.1%, draw 25.5%, Famalicão U23 win 44.5%. The pick is Famalicão U23 win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.9%. Both teams to score: 60.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.