ScoreProb
Liga 1 Indonesia Round 9 2026

Persepam Madura Utd vs Arema FC

Persepam Madura Utd Home · Elo 1,462
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Arema FC Away · Elo 1,513
Gelora Ratu Pamelingan Stadium, Pamekasan Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Arema FC win
Persepam Madura Utd win
32.1%
Draw
25.9%
Arema FC winPick
42.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.7%
No44.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.4%
Under 2.546.6%

How much we know

Persepam Madura Utd history52 matches
Arema FC history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Arema FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Arema FC are rated 51 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,513 against 1,462. On rating alone Arema FC would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Arema FC score more

    1.15 goals a game over 52 matches for Persepam Madura Utd, against 1.53 over 55 for Arema FC.

  • Defences are close

    Persepam Madura Utd concede 1.44 a game, Arema FC 1.47.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Persepam Madura Utd matches, against 60% for Arema FC. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 6 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Persepam Madura Utd
Arema FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1462.5
ELO
1513.0
52
ELO · Matches
55
1462.5
Current Team ELO
1513.0
1513.0
Current Opponent ELO
1462.5
-50.53
Current ELO Difference
50.53
0.43
Expected score
0.57
52
History Matches
55
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.02
47.69
Overperformance
51.13
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.50
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.54
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.23
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
55
1.21
PPG
1.35
32.7%
Win rate
36.4%
23.1%
Draw rate
25.5%
44.2%
Loss rate
38.2%
71.2%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
55.8%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
26.9%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
27
1.33
PPG
1.22
37.0%
Win rate
29.6%
22.2%
Draw rate
33.3%
40.7%
Loss rate
37.0%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
63.0%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
29.6%
Over 3.5 rate
37.0%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.23
27
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.15
Goals for per game
1.53
67.3%
Scoring rate
78.2%
50.0%
BTTS rate
61.8%
1.41
Goals for per game
1.37
74.1%
Scoring rate
77.8%
55.6%
BTTS rate
66.7%
52
History Matches
55
1.15
Goals Mean
1.53
1.06
Goals Std
1.29
67.3%
Scored 1+ rate
78.2%
36.5%
Scored 2+ rate
45.5%
7.7%
Scored 3+ rate
16.4%
1.41
Venue Goals Mean
1.37
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.44
Goals against per game
1.47
71.2%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.41
Goals against per game
1.41
70.4%
Conceding rate
81.5%
52
History Matches
55
1.44
Conceded Mean
1.47
1.31
Conceded Std
1.09
40.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.5%
23.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.4%
1.41
Venue Conceded Mean
1.41
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.8%
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.8%
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
55
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.76
Goal Difference Std
1.70
3.09
Stability score
1.35
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
55
17
Lead Matches
18
70.6%
Lead Win Rate
61.1%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.67
12
Trailing Matches
16
8.3%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
167.1
Rest days
92.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
30
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.27
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
20
Long Rest History Matches
18
0.95
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.28
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.09
0.61
Portability PPG Range
0.21
66.34
Portability Score
84.78
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-50.53
PPG-0.13
GF-0.37
GA-0.03
PPG0.11
PPG0.60
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate8.8%
Failed-to-score rate10.9%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate11.1%
Failed-to-score rate3.7%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.37
Goals Std-0.23
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean0.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.05
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.03
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate8.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate6.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.08
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score1.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.51
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate9.5%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.29
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.16
Portability PPG Range0.40
Portability Score-18.44
Rest days74.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.05
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Current Team ELO-50.53
Current Opponent ELO50.53
Current ELO Difference-101.1
Expected score-0.14
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.44
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Persepam Madura Utd

W
PSM Makassar0–1Persepam Madura Utd31 Oct · away
Pick: PSM Makassar 38% · missed
L
Persebaya Surabaya3–1Persepam Madura Utd26 Oct · away
Pick: Persebaya Surabaya 51% · hit
W
Persepam Madura Utd1–0Persib Bandung22 Oct · home
Pick: Persib Bandung 51% · missed
D
Persepam Madura Utd3–3Bhayangkara FC16 Oct · home
Pick: Persepam Madura Utd 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Arema FC

L
Arema FC1–3Bali United31 Oct · home
Pick: Arema FC 52% · missed
W
Arema FC4–0Dewa United25 Oct · home
Pick: Dewa United 40% · missed
L
Persija5–1Arema FC21 Oct · away
Pick: Persija 42% · hit
L
Garudayaksa3–1Arema FC17 Oct · away
Pick: Arema FC 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Persepam Madura Utd and Arema FC meet in Liga 1 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Gelora Ratu Pamelingan Stadium, Pamekasan. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Persepam Madura Utd win 32.1%, draw 25.9%, Arema FC win 42.0%. The pick is Arema FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.4%. Both teams to score: 55.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.