ScoreProb
Liga 1 Indonesia Round 9 2026

PSIM Yogyakarta vs Dewa United

PSIM Yogyakarta Home · Elo 1,499
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dewa United Away · Elo 1,563
Mandala Krida Stadium, Yogyakarta Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dewa United win
PSIM Yogyakarta win
28.8%
Draw
28.3%
Dewa United winPick
42.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.7%
No48.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.2%
Under 2.547.8%

How much we know

PSIM Yogyakarta history40 matches
Dewa United history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 23 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 08:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Dewa United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dewa United are rated 64 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,563 against 1,499. On rating alone Dewa United would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Dewa United score more

    1.33 goals a game over 40 matches for PSIM Yogyakarta, against 1.58 over 57 for Dewa United.

  • Dewa United concede fewer

    PSIM Yogyakarta concede 1.23 a game, Dewa United 1.02.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    50% of PSIM Yogyakarta matches, against 47% for Dewa United. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
PSIM Yogyakarta
Dewa United
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1499.3
ELO
1563.4
40
ELO · Matches
57
1499.3
Current Team ELO
1563.4
1563.4
Current Opponent ELO
1499.3
-64.10
Current ELO Difference
64.10
0.41
Expected score
0.59
40
History Matches
57
0.00
Residual Mean
0.06
49.88
Overperformance
54.18
-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
0.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
1.40
Goals against per game
0.70
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.60
Overall performance9 signals
90
40
Matches
57
1.45
PPG
1.67
37.5%
Win rate
49.1%
32.5%
Draw rate
19.3%
30.0%
Loss rate
31.6%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
47.4%
27.5%
Over 3.5 rate
28.1%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
28
1.60
PPG
1.54
40.0%
Win rate
42.9%
40.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
32.1%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
45.0%
Over 2.5 rate
39.3%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
17.9%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
20
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.33
Goals for per game
1.58
77.5%
Scoring rate
75.4%
55.0%
BTTS rate
47.4%
1.35
Goals for per game
1.32
85.0%
Scoring rate
67.9%
60.0%
BTTS rate
42.9%
40
History Matches
57
1.33
Goals Mean
1.58
1.01
Goals Std
1.45
77.5%
Scored 1+ rate
75.4%
40.0%
Scored 2+ rate
42.1%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
21.1%
1.35
Venue Goals Mean
1.32
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.23
Goals against per game
1.02
70.0%
Conceding rate
68.4%
1.15
Goals against per game
0.96
70.0%
Conceding rate
67.9%
40
History Matches
57
1.23
Conceded Mean
1.02
1.06
Conceded Std
0.93
37.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.6%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.0%
1.15
Venue Conceded Mean
0.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
22.5%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
22.5%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
40
History Matches
57
1.00
Result entropy
0.94
1.48
Goal Difference Std
1.96
0.39
Stability score
6.18
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
40
Eligible Matches
57
9
Lead Matches
23
55.6%
Lead Win Rate
87.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.90
12
Trailing Matches
17
33.3%
Non-loss rate
29.4%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
168.0
Rest days
167.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
6
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
24
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.54
15
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.77
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.24
0.84
Portability PPG Range
0.67
54.26
Portability Score
67.55
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
40
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-64.10
PPG-0.22
GF-0.25
GA0.21
PPG0.06
PPG-0.60
PPG-1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-17
Goals Mean-0.25
Goals Std-0.44
Scored 1+ rate2.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean0.03
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.59
History Matches-17
Conceded Mean0.21
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate12.9%
Conceded 3+ rate5.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.16
History Matches-17
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.48
Stability score-5.79
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.49
Eligible Matches-17
Lead Matches-14
Lead Win Rate-0.31
Lead Points Retention-0.23
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate3.9%
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches-17
First Half Goals For Mean-0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.18
Portability PPG Range0.18
Portability Score-13.30
Rest days0.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.13
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.77
Current Team ELO-64.10
Current Opponent ELO64.10
Current ELO Difference-128.2
Expected score-0.18
History Matches-17
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.31

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

PSIM Yogyakarta

W
PSIM Yogyakarta2–1Pusamania Borneo1 Nov · home
Pick: Pusamania Borneo 48% · missed
D
Isenmulang Kalteng0–0PSIM Yogyakarta24 Oct · away
Pick: Isenmulang Kalteng 40% · missed
L
Bhayangkara FC1–0PSIM Yogyakarta20 Oct · away
Pick: Bhayangkara FC 38% · hit
L
PSIM Yogyakarta1–2PSM Makassar16 Oct · home
Pick: PSM Makassar 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Dewa United

W
Dewa United2–1Persija31 Oct · home
Pick: Dewa United 47% · hit
L
Arema FC4–0Dewa United25 Oct · away
Pick: Dewa United 40% · missed
W
Dewa United2–0Persijap20 Oct · home
Pick: Dewa United 59% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

PSIM Yogyakarta and Dewa United meet in Liga 1 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 08:30 UTC. The match is played at Mandala Krida Stadium, Yogyakarta. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: PSIM Yogyakarta win 28.8%, draw 28.3%, Dewa United win 42.9%. The pick is Dewa United win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.2%. Both teams to score: 51.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.