ScoreProb
Campionato Primavera - 2 Italy Round 8 2026

Perugia U19 vs Pescara U19

Perugia U19 Home · Elo 1,536
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Pescara U19 Away · Elo 1,556
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Pescara U19 win
Perugia U19 win
36.2%
Draw
24.0%
Pescara U19 winPick
39.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.5%
No47.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.3%
Under 2.546.7%

How much we know

Perugia U19 history46 matches
Pescara U19 history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Pescara U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,536 against 1,556. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Pescara U19 score more

    1.37 goals a game over 46 matches for Perugia U19, against 1.68 over 47 for Pescara U19.

  • Defences are close

    Perugia U19 concede 1.13 a game, Pescara U19 1.17.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Perugia U19 matches, against 53% for Pescara U19. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Perugia U19
Pescara U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1535.6
ELO
1555.5
46
ELO · Matches
47
1535.6
Current Team ELO
1555.5
1555.5
Current Opponent ELO
1535.6
-19.96
Current ELO Difference
19.96
0.47
Expected score
0.53
46
History Matches
47
0.04
Residual Mean
0.05
53.01
Overperformance
53.84
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.60
1.60
Goals for per game
2.40
1.20
Goals against per game
2.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.60
1.90
Goals for per game
1.90
1.30
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.37
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.58
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
47
1.46
PPG
1.74
41.3%
Win rate
48.9%
21.7%
Draw rate
27.7%
37.0%
Loss rate
23.4%
71.7%
Over 1.5 rate
80.9%
52.2%
Over 2.5 rate
53.2%
26.1%
Over 3.5 rate
27.7%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
24
1.75
PPG
1.46
54.2%
Win rate
37.5%
12.5%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
29.2%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
20.8%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
24
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.37
Goals for per game
1.68
76.1%
Scoring rate
87.2%
52.2%
BTTS rate
53.2%
1.63
Goals for per game
1.63
79.2%
Scoring rate
83.3%
45.8%
BTTS rate
62.5%
46
History Matches
47
1.37
Goals Mean
1.68
1.17
Goals Std
1.13
76.1%
Scored 1+ rate
87.2%
37.0%
Scored 2+ rate
48.9%
17.4%
Scored 3+ rate
25.5%
1.63
Venue Goals Mean
1.63
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.13
Goals against per game
1.17
67.4%
Conceding rate
59.6%
0.92
Goals against per game
1.50
62.5%
Conceding rate
66.7%
46
History Matches
47
1.13
Conceded Mean
1.17
0.97
Conceded Std
1.24
37.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.3%
8.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.6%
0.92
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
23.9%
Failed-to-score rate
12.8%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
23.9%
Failed-to-score rate
12.8%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
47
0.97
Result entropy
0.95
1.60
Goal Difference Std
1.67
3.07
Stability score
4.87
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
41
Eligible Matches
45
12
Lead Matches
17
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
82.4%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.86
13
Trailing Matches
12
23.1%
Non-loss rate
41.7%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
168.0
Rest days
175.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
25
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.70
20
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.75
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.56
Portability PPG Std
0.11
1.12
Portability PPG Range
0.22
47.07
Portability Score
81.72
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-19.96
PPG-0.29
GF-0.31
GA-0.04
PPG0.29
PPG0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate11.1%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate4.2%
Failed-to-score rate4.2%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.31
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.33
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std-0.27
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.58
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.20
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score-1.80
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.15
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate-0.26
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.45
Portability PPG Range0.90
Portability Score-34.65
Rest days-7.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Current Team ELO-19.96
Current Opponent ELO19.96
Current ELO Difference-39.93
Expected score-0.06
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Perugia U19

L
Benevento U191–0Perugia U1931 Oct · away
Pick: Perugia U19 39% · missed
L
Empoli U201–0Perugia U1928 Oct · away
Pick: Perugia U19 41% · missed
W
Perugia U195–0Frosinone U1924 Oct · home
Pick: Perugia U19 56% · hit
L
Palermo U191–0Perugia U1917 Oct · away
Pick: Perugia U19 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Pescara U19

L
Como U202–0Pescara U1928 Oct · away
Pick: Pescara U19 38% · missed
W
Bari U190–1Pescara U1924 Oct · away
Pick: Pescara U19 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Perugia U19 and Pescara U19 meet in Campionato Primavera - 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Perugia U19 win 36.2%, draw 24.0%, Pescara U19 win 39.8%. The pick is Pescara U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.3%. Both teams to score: 52.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.