Peterborough United U21 vs Newcastle United U21
Match result probability Model pick: Newcastle United U21 win
Peterborough United U21 win
38.0%
Draw
21.7%
Newcastle United U21 winPick
40.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes66.3%
No33.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.574.8%
Under 2.525.2%
How much we know
Peterborough United U21 history47 matches
Newcastle United U21 history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Newcastle United U21
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 19:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.
Why Newcastle United U21 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Peterborough United U21 are rated 60 Elo points higher
Elo 1,516 against 1,456. On rating alone Peterborough United U21 would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.
-
Peterborough United U21 score more
1.96 goals a game over 47 matches for Peterborough United U21, against 1.73 over 45 for Newcastle United U21.
-
Defences are close
Peterborough United U21 concede 2.09 a game, Newcastle United U21 2.18.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
79% of Peterborough United U21 matches, against 71% for Newcastle United U21. The model puts this match at 75% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Newcastle United U21@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1516.4
ELO
1456.1
47
ELO · Matches
45
1516.4
Current Team ELO
1456.1
1456.1
Current Opponent ELO
1516.4
60.33
Current ELO Difference
-60.33
0.59
Expected score
0.41
47
History Matches
45
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.06
51.39
Overperformance
45.74
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
2.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.70
1.90
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.37
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.47
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.87
Overall performance9 signals 90
47
Matches
45
1.45
PPG
1.11
42.6%
Win rate
28.9%
17.0%
Draw rate
24.4%
40.4%
Loss rate
46.7%
89.4%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
78.7%
Over 2.5 rate
71.1%
59.6%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
2.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
Venue performance10 signals 100
24
Matches
26
1.54
PPG
1.19
45.8%
Win rate
30.8%
16.7%
Draw rate
26.9%
37.5%
Loss rate
42.3%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
88.5%
70.8%
Over 2.5 rate
69.2%
62.5%
Over 3.5 rate
61.5%
2.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
24
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.96
Goals for per game
1.73
83.0%
Scoring rate
73.3%
70.2%
BTTS rate
62.2%
2.38
Goals for per game
1.77
87.5%
Scoring rate
76.9%
66.7%
BTTS rate
65.4%
47
History Matches
45
1.96
Goals Mean
1.73
1.41
Goals Std
1.55
83.0%
Scored 1+ rate
73.3%
63.8%
Scored 2+ rate
51.1%
27.7%
Scored 3+ rate
28.9%
2.38
Venue Goals Mean
1.77
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.09
Goals against per game
2.18
85.1%
Conceding rate
84.4%
1.79
Goals against per game
2.12
79.2%
Conceding rate
84.6%
47
History Matches
45
2.09
Conceded Mean
2.18
1.64
Conceded Std
1.61
53.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
62.2%
36.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
37.8%
1.79
Venue Conceded Mean
2.12
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
14.9%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
17.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
14.9%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
17.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
14.9%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
47
History Matches
45
0.94
Result entropy
0.96
2.39
Goal Difference Std
2.36
6.14
Stability score
3.63
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
47
Eligible Matches
45
12
Lead Matches
13
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
84.6%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.90
21
Trailing Matches
18
28.6%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
9.5%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals 50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.81
First Half Goals For Mean
0.84
1.09
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
1.15
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.18
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
80.33
Rest days
81.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.25
23
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.70
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.87
22
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.18
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.41
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
9
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.58
0.78
Portability PPG Range
1.50
56.17
Portability Score
46.21
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
47
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO60.33
PPG0.34
GF0.22
GA-0.09
PPG0.35
PPG1.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate5.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.22
Goals Std-0.14
Scored 1+ rate9.6%
Scored 2+ rate12.7%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.61
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.23
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.09
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.09
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.03
Stability score2.52
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.49
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate11.9%
Trailing Win Rate4.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-6
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.19
Portability PPG Range-0.72
Portability Score9.97
Rest days-0.71
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.75
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.83
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Current Team ELO60.33
Current Opponent ELO-60.33
Current ELO Difference120.7
Expected score0.17
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Peterborough United U21
L
Newcastle United U212–0Peterborough United U2130 Oct · away
Pick: Newcastle United U21 42% · hit W
Barnsley U213–6Peterborough United U2126 Oct · away
Pick: Peterborough United U21 46% · hit D
Peterborough United U212–2Sheffield Wednesday U2121 Oct · home
Pick: Peterborough United U21 58% · missed L
Peterborough United U210–4Sheffield United U2113 Oct · home
Pick: Sheffield United U21 49% · hit W
Swansea City U212–3Peterborough United U2125 Aug · away
Pick: Swansea City U21 46% · missed Newcastle United U21
D
Reading U211–1Newcastle United U216 Nov · away
Pick: Reading U21 43% · missed W
Rotherham0–1Newcastle United U213 Nov · away
Pick: Rotherham 62% · missed W
Newcastle United U212–0Peterborough United U2130 Oct · home
Pick: Newcastle United U21 42% · hit W
Newcastle United U213–2Sunderland U2126 Oct · home
Pick: Sunderland U21 52% · missed W
Hartlepool1–2Newcastle United U2113 Oct · away
Pick: Hartlepool 44% · missed About this match
Peterborough United U21 and Newcastle United U21 meet in Premier League Cup on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Peterborough United U21 win 38.0%, draw 21.7%, Newcastle United U21 win 40.3%. The pick is Newcastle United U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 74.8%. Both teams to score: 66.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.