ScoreProb
Premier League Cup England Group Stage 2026

Millwall U21 vs Sheffield United U21

Millwall U21 Home · Elo 1,461
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sheffield United U21 Away · Elo 1,580
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sheffield United U21 win
Millwall U21 win
27.5%
Draw
19.7%
Sheffield United U21 winPick
52.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.8%
No36.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.9%
Under 2.531.1%

How much we know

Millwall U21 history53 matches
Sheffield United U21 history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.8%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,845 matches.

Why Sheffield United U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sheffield United U21 are rated 119 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,580 against 1,461. On rating alone Sheffield United U21 would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Sheffield United U21 score more

    1.77 goals a game over 53 matches for Millwall U21, against 2.02 over 55 for Sheffield United U21.

  • Sheffield United U21 concede fewer

    Millwall U21 concede 1.77 a game, Sheffield United U21 1.49.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    68% of Millwall U21 matches, against 71% for Sheffield United U21. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Millwall U21
Sheffield United U21@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1460.7
ELO
1579.5
53
ELO · Matches
55
1460.7
Current Team ELO
1579.5
1579.5
Current Opponent ELO
1460.7
-118.8
Current ELO Difference
118.8
0.34
Expected score
0.66
53
History Matches
55
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.07
47.13
Overperformance
55.24
-0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
2.40
2.20
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
2.20
2.10
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.79
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
55
1.40
PPG
1.85
41.5%
Win rate
54.5%
15.1%
Draw rate
21.8%
43.4%
Loss rate
23.6%
94.3%
Over 1.5 rate
89.1%
67.9%
Over 2.5 rate
70.9%
47.2%
Over 3.5 rate
47.3%
2.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
27
1.73
PPG
1.67
53.8%
Win rate
48.1%
11.5%
Draw rate
22.2%
34.6%
Loss rate
29.6%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.2%
69.2%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
53.8%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
2.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.39
26
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.77
Goals for per game
2.02
81.1%
Scoring rate
90.9%
62.3%
BTTS rate
70.9%
2.12
Goals for per game
1.67
96.2%
Scoring rate
85.2%
65.4%
BTTS rate
63.0%
0.00
Goals for per game
3.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
55
1.77
Goals Mean
2.02
1.33
Goals Std
1.34
81.1%
Scored 1+ rate
90.9%
58.5%
Scored 2+ rate
60.0%
20.8%
Scored 3+ rate
29.1%
2.12
Venue Goals Mean
1.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.77
Goals against per game
1.49
81.1%
Conceding rate
76.4%
1.73
Goals against per game
1.67
69.2%
Conceding rate
74.1%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
55
1.77
Conceded Mean
1.49
1.40
Conceded Std
1.40
49.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
28.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.4%
1.73
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
9.1%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
3.8%
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
9.1%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
3.8%
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
55
0.92
Result entropy
0.91
2.25
Goal Difference Std
2.14
7.82
Stability score
8.64
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
55
21
Lead Matches
24
81.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.85
19
Trailing Matches
18
10.5%
Non-loss rate
44.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.96
First Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.83
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.13
0.92
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.29
Rest days
80.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
29
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.86
20
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
7
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.91
Portability PPG Std
0.37
2.23
Portability PPG Range
0.84
35.42
Portability Score
57.51
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-118.8
PPG-0.46
GF-0.24
GA0.28
PPG-3.00
PPG0.06
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate9.8%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate4.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.24
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.45
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.28
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate9.1%
Conceded 3+ rate11.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.22
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.11
Stability score-0.81
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.59
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.34
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.54
Portability PPG Range1.40
Portability Score-22.10
Rest days0.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.67
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.44
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.95
Current Team ELO-118.8
Current Opponent ELO118.8
Current ELO Difference-237.7
Expected score-0.33
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-8.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Millwall U21

W
Millwall U213–0Cardiff City U216 Nov · home
Pick: Cardiff City U21 45% · missed
W
Bristol City U211–3Millwall U2127 Oct · away
Pick: Bristol City U21 54% · missed
L
Fleetwood Town U211–0Millwall U211 Sep · away
Pick: Fleetwood Town U21 47% · hit
L
Millwall U212–4Huddersfield Town U2125 Aug · home
Pick: Millwall U21 58% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sheffield United U21

W
West Ham United U211–2Sheffield United U2130 Oct · away
Pick: Sheffield United U21 41% · hit
L
Sheffield United U210–1Fleetwood Town U2126 Oct · home
Pick: Sheffield United U21 78% · missed
W
Peterborough United U210–4Sheffield United U2113 Oct · away
Pick: Sheffield United U21 49% · hit
W
Sheffield United U212–0Bolton Wanderers Res.5 Oct · home
Pick: Sheffield United U21 52% · hit
L
Bristol City U213–1Sheffield United U211 Sep · away
Pick: Sheffield United U21 52% · missed

About this match

Millwall U21 and Sheffield United U21 meet in Premier League Cup on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Millwall U21 win 27.5%, draw 19.7%, Sheffield United U21 win 52.8%. The pick is Sheffield United U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.9%. Both teams to score: 63.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.