ScoreProb
FA Cup England 1/128-finals 2026

Peterborough vs Reading

Peterborough Home · Elo 1,514
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Reading Away · Elo 1,564
Weston Homes Stadium, Peterborough Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Peterborough win
Peterborough winPick
41.5%
Draw
25.4%
Reading win
33.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.9%
No45.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.3%
Under 2.546.7%

How much we know

Peterborough history90 matches
Reading history87 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Peterborough are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Reading are rated 50 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,564 against 1,514. On rating alone Reading would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.48 goals a game over 90 matches for Peterborough, against 1.43 over 87 for Reading.

  • Reading concede fewer

    Peterborough concede 1.42 a game, Reading 1.18.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Peterborough matches, against 47% for Reading. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Peterborough
Reading
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1513.9
ELO
1564.0
90
ELO · Matches
87
1513.9
Current Team ELO
1564.0
1564.0
Current Opponent ELO
1513.9
-50.07
Current ELO Difference
50.07
0.43
Expected score
0.57
90
History Matches
87
0.00
Residual Mean
0.04
49.71
Overperformance
52.89
0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.20
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
0.70
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.56
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
90
Matches
87
1.33
PPG
1.52
37.8%
Win rate
40.2%
20.0%
Draw rate
31.0%
42.2%
Loss rate
28.7%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
77.0%
54.4%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.4%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
44
1.41
PPG
1.41
38.5%
Win rate
36.4%
25.6%
Draw rate
31.8%
35.9%
Loss rate
31.8%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
39
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.48
Goals for per game
1.43
80.0%
Scoring rate
78.2%
60.0%
BTTS rate
57.5%
1.56
Goals for per game
1.43
74.4%
Scoring rate
72.7%
56.4%
BTTS rate
56.8%
90
History Matches
87
1.48
Goals Mean
1.43
1.42
Goals Std
1.10
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
78.2%
34.4%
Scored 2+ rate
43.7%
15.6%
Scored 3+ rate
16.1%
1.56
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.42
Goals against per game
1.18
76.7%
Conceding rate
72.4%
1.31
Goals against per game
1.16
76.9%
Conceding rate
75.0%
90
History Matches
87
1.42
Conceded Mean
1.18
1.14
Conceded Std
1.03
42.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.0%
18.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.5%
1.31
Venue Conceded Mean
1.16
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.8%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.8%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
90
History Matches
87
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
1.88
Goal Difference Std
1.50
4.09
Stability score
0.99
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
90
Eligible Matches
87
28
Lead Matches
28
82.1%
Lead Win Rate
60.7%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.71
28
Trailing Matches
13
25.0%
Non-loss rate
38.5%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
90
Halftime Coverage Matches
87
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.34
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.05
Rest days
74.05
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.29
67
Normal Rest History Matches
65
1.22
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.49
10
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.90
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
10
Competition Season Count
10
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.68
1.18
Portability PPG Range
2.17
56.84
Portability Score
42.34
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
90
Clean History Matches
87
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-50.07
PPG-0.18
GF0.05
GA0.24
PPG0.00
PPG0.60
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.05
Goals Std0.32
Scored 1+ rate1.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.24
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.24
Conceded Std0.10
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate11.2%
Conceded 3+ rate7.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.41
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.38
Stability score3.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.01
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate21.4%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches15
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.30
Portability PPG Range-0.99
Portability Score14.50
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.95
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.27
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.54
Current Team ELO-50.07
Current Opponent ELO50.07
Current ELO Difference-100.1
Expected score-0.14
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Peterborough

L
Peterborough0–2Luton31 Oct · home
Pick: Luton 37% · hit
L
Bradford2–0Peterborough27 Oct · away
Pick: Bradford 41% · hit
D
Bromley1–1Peterborough24 Oct · away
Pick: Bromley 48% · missed
L
Huddersfield4–1Peterborough20 Oct · away
Pick: Huddersfield 53% · hit
D
Peterborough2–2Burton Albion17 Oct · home
Pick: Peterborough 43% · missed

Reading

D
Plymouth0–0Reading31 Oct · away
Pick: Plymouth 40% · missed
W
Reading2–1Barnsley24 Oct · home
Pick: Reading 46% · hit
W
Reading1–0Leyton Orient21 Oct · home
Pick: Reading 39% · hit
L
Wigan1–0Reading17 Oct · away
Pick: Reading 42% · missed
L
Reading0–2Chelsea U2113 Oct · home
Pick: Reading 62% · missed

About this match

Peterborough and Reading meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Weston Homes Stadium, Peterborough. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Peterborough win 41.5%, draw 25.4%, Reading win 33.1%. The pick is Peterborough win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.3%. Both teams to score: 54.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.