Phnom Penh Crown vs Boeung Ket
Match result probability Model pick: Phnom Penh Crown win
Phnom Penh Crown winPick
50.7%
Draw
23.0%
Boeung Ket win
26.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes56.8%
No43.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.556.8%
Under 2.543.2%
How much we know
Phnom Penh Crown history57 matches
Boeung Ket history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Phnom Penh Crown
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 10:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Phnom Penh Crown are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,576 against 1,596. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Phnom Penh Crown score more
1.95 goals a game over 57 matches for Phnom Penh Crown, against 1.49 over 51 for Boeung Ket.
-
Boeung Ket concede fewer
Phnom Penh Crown concede 1.30 a game, Boeung Ket 1.08.
-
Phnom Penh Crown games more often go over 2.5 goals
61% of Phnom Penh Crown matches, against 39% for Boeung Ket. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 20 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Boeung Ket@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1575.5
ELO
1595.5
57
ELO · Matches
51
1575.5
Current Team ELO
1595.5
1595.5
Current Opponent ELO
1575.5
-20.00
Current ELO Difference
20.00
0.47
Expected score
0.53
57
History Matches
51
0.05
Residual Mean
0.10
53.82
Overperformance
57.13
-0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.25
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.20
1.40
Goals for per game
2.20
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.90
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.50
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.12
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.80
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.12
Overall performance9 signals 90
57
Matches
51
1.84
PPG
1.61
56.1%
Win rate
45.1%
15.8%
Draw rate
25.5%
28.1%
Loss rate
29.4%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
61.4%
Over 2.5 rate
39.2%
40.4%
Over 3.5 rate
25.5%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals 100
25
Matches
24
1.88
PPG
1.42
60.0%
Win rate
41.7%
8.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
32.0%
Loss rate
41.7%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
64.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
36.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
25
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.95
Goals for per game
1.49
86.0%
Scoring rate
68.6%
59.6%
BTTS rate
45.1%
1.80
Goals for per game
1.46
88.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
56.0%
BTTS rate
45.8%
57
History Matches
51
1.95
Goals Mean
1.49
1.43
Goals Std
1.59
86.0%
Scored 1+ rate
68.6%
52.6%
Scored 2+ rate
43.1%
35.1%
Scored 3+ rate
17.6%
1.80
Venue Goals Mean
1.46
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.30
Goals against per game
1.08
70.2%
Conceding rate
68.6%
1.32
Goals against per game
1.33
68.0%
Conceding rate
79.2%
57
History Matches
51
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.08
1.15
Conceded Std
0.99
40.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.5%
12.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.7%
1.32
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.4%
14.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.4%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
12.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.4%
14.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.4%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
12.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
57
History Matches
51
0.88
Result entropy
0.97
1.81
Goal Difference Std
1.87
11.51
Stability score
2.83
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
57
Eligible Matches
51
22
Lead Matches
19
86.4%
Lead Win Rate
73.7%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.82
13
Trailing Matches
11
38.5%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
23.1%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.82
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
1.12
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
175.0
Rest days
172.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.56
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
28
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.96
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.74
19
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.89
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.53
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.32
0.33
Portability PPG Range
0.79
78.56
Portability Score
61.09
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
57
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-20.00
PPG0.23
GF0.46
GA0.22
PPG0.46
PPG-0.40
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate11.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.46
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate17.3%
Scored 2+ rate9.5%
Scored 3+ rate17.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.34
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.25
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.22
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate14.9%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.22
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score8.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.68
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate12.7%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate11.2%
Trailing Win Rate14.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.18
Portability PPG Range-0.45
Portability Score17.48
Rest days3.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match0.06
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.22
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.37
Current Team ELO-20.00
Current Opponent ELO20.00
Current ELO Difference-40.00
Expected score-0.06
History Matches6
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.47
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Phnom Penh Crown
L
Phnom Penh Crown0–1Kompong Dewa1 Nov · home
Pick: Phnom Penh Crown 68% · missed W
Phnom Penh Crown2–0Kitchee29 Oct · home
Pick: Phnom Penh Crown 50% · hit W
National Defense1–2Phnom Penh Crown24 Oct · away
Pick: Phnom Penh Crown 64% · hit D
Phnom Penh Crown1–1Life Sihanoukville19 Oct · home
Pick: Phnom Penh Crown 73% · missed W
Gangwon FC1–2Phnom Penh Crown15 Oct · away
Pick: Gangwon FC 51% · missed Boeung Ket
W
Angkor Tiger0–1Boeung Ket31 Oct · away
Pick: Boeung Ket 44% · hit L
Boeung Ket0–2NagaWorld25 Oct · home
Pick: Boeung Ket 60% · missed L
Svay Rieng4–1Boeung Ket18 Oct · away
Pick: Svay Rieng 57% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Phnom Penh Crown and Boeung Ket meet in C-League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at RSN Stadium, Phnom Penh. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Phnom Penh Crown win 50.7%, draw 23.0%, Boeung Ket win 26.3%. The pick is Phnom Penh Crown win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.8%. Both teams to score: 56.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.