ScoreProb
V.League 1 Vietnam Round 7 2027

Phu Dong vs Bắc Ninh

Phu Dong Home · Elo 1,640
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bắc Ninh Away · Elo 1,569
Ninh Binh Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Phu Dong win
Phu Dong winPick
56.6%
Draw
24.7%
Bắc Ninh win
18.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.2%
No44.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.9%
Under 2.547.1%

How much we know

Phu Dong history46 matches
Bắc Ninh history25 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Phu Dong are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Phu Dong are rated 71 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,640 against 1,569. On rating alone Phu Dong would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Phu Dong score more

    2.11 goals a game over 46 matches for Phu Dong, against 1.72 over 25 for Bắc Ninh.

  • Defences are close

    Phu Dong concede 0.93 a game, Bắc Ninh 1.00.

  • Phu Dong games more often go over 2.5 goals

    63% of Phu Dong matches, against 48% for Bắc Ninh. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 14 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Phu Dong
Bắc Ninh
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1640.1
ELO
1569.1
46
ELO · Matches
25
1640.1
Current Team ELO
1569.1
1569.1
Current Opponent ELO
1640.1
71.00
Current ELO Difference
-71.00
0.60
Expected score
0.40
46
History Matches
25
0.15
Residual Mean
0.12
60.31
Overperformance
56.90
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.60
2.20
Goals for per game
3.20
0.80
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
2.10
2.10
Goals for per game
2.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.10
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.15
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.51
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.49
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
25
2.26
PPG
1.96
69.6%
Win rate
56.0%
17.4%
Draw rate
28.0%
13.0%
Loss rate
16.0%
87.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
63.0%
Over 2.5 rate
48.0%
30.4%
Over 3.5 rate
36.0%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
14
2.13
PPG
1.93
65.2%
Win rate
50.0%
17.4%
Draw rate
42.9%
17.4%
Loss rate
7.1%
82.6%
Over 1.5 rate
42.9%
56.5%
Over 2.5 rate
35.7%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
23
History Matches
14
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.11
Goals for per game
1.72
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
60.9%
BTTS rate
52.0%
2.04
Goals for per game
1.36
100.0%
Scoring rate
71.4%
47.8%
BTTS rate
42.9%
46
History Matches
25
2.11
Goals Mean
1.72
1.03
Goals Std
1.69
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
67.4%
Scored 2+ rate
44.0%
30.4%
Scored 3+ rate
24.0%
2.04
Venue Goals Mean
1.36
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.93
Goals against per game
1.00
60.9%
Conceding rate
60.0%
0.74
Goals against per game
0.79
47.8%
Conceding rate
50.0%
46
History Matches
25
0.93
Conceded Mean
1.00
0.94
Conceded Std
1.02
23.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.0%
8.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.0%
0.74
Venue Conceded Mean
0.79
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
52.2%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
52.2%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
25
0.75
Result entropy
0.89
1.39
Goal Difference Std
1.82
25.15
Stability score
11.31
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
25
26
Lead Matches
7
80.8%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.81
10
Trailing Matches
6
50.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
30.0%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
25
0.96
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
1.15
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.16
0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
146.0
Rest days
148.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
25
Normal Rest History Matches
11
2.24
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.64
19
Long Rest History Matches
13
2.37
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.15
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.38
0.90
Portability PPG Range
0.76
57.76
Portability Score
56.76
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
25
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO71.00
PPG0.30
GF0.39
GA-0.07
PPG0.20
PPG0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches21
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate2.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches21
Goals Mean0.39
Goals Std-0.66
Scored 1+ rate20.0%
Scored 2+ rate23.4%
Scored 3+ rate6.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.69
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.21
History Matches21
Conceded Mean-0.07
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.05
History Matches21
Result entropy-0.14
Goal Difference Std-0.43
Stability score13.84
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.98
Eligible Matches21
Lead Matches19
Lead Win Rate9.3%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches21
First Half Goals For Mean0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range0.13
Portability Score1.00
Rest days-2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches14
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.60
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.21
Current Team ELO71.00
Current Opponent ELO-71.00
Current ELO Difference142.0
Expected score0.20
History Matches21
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance3.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Phu Dong

L
Ha Noi2–1Phu Dong30 Oct · away
Pick: Phu Dong 48% · missed
L
Phu Dong0–1Ho Chi Minh25 Oct · home
Pick: Ho Chi Minh 43% · hit
W
Phu Dong4–3Hoang Anh Gia Lai18 Oct · home
Pick: Phu Dong 59% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Bắc Ninh

W
Bắc Ninh1–0Hoang Anh Gia Lai30 Oct · home
Pick: Bắc Ninh 40% · hit
D
Viettel2–2Bắc Ninh23 Oct · away
Pick: Viettel 53% · missed
D
Bắc Ninh0–0Bình Phước18 Oct · home
Pick: Bình Phước 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Phu Dong and Bắc Ninh meet in V.League 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Ninh Binh Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Phu Dong win 56.6%, draw 24.7%, Bắc Ninh win 18.7%. The pick is Phu Dong win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.9%. Both teams to score: 55.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.