ScoreProb
Super Liga Slovakia Round 14 2026

Podbrezová vs Ružomberok

Podbrezová Home · Elo 1,558
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ružomberok Away · Elo 1,462
Venue to be confirmed Referee: T. Vano Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Podbrezová win
Podbrezová winPick
60.6%
Draw
15.8%
Ružomberok win
23.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.6%
No38.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.1%
Under 2.534.9%

How much we know

Podbrezová history81 matches
Ružomberok history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.6%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Podbrezová are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Podbrezová are rated 96 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,558 against 1,462. On rating alone Podbrezová would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Podbrezová score more

    1.81 goals a game over 81 matches for Podbrezová, against 1.36 over 72 for Ružomberok.

  • Defences are close

    Podbrezová concede 1.62 a game, Ružomberok 1.60.

  • Podbrezová games more often go over 2.5 goals

    69% of Podbrezová matches, against 57% for Ružomberok. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Podbrezová
Ružomberok
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1558.5
ELO
1462.4
81
ELO · Matches
72
1558.5
Current Team ELO
1462.4
1462.4
Current Opponent ELO
1558.5
96.08
Current ELO Difference
-96.08
0.63
Expected score
0.37
81
History Matches
72
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.02
52.34
Overperformance
48.26
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
2.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.50
1.50
Goals for per game
1.10
2.00
Goals against per game
2.40
50.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.58
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
1.48
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.43
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.57
Overall performance9 signals
90
81
Matches
72
1.43
PPG
1.25
42.0%
Win rate
34.7%
17.3%
Draw rate
20.8%
40.7%
Loss rate
44.4%
90.1%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
69.1%
Over 2.5 rate
56.9%
46.9%
Over 3.5 rate
31.9%
2.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
35
1.68
PPG
1.23
51.4%
Win rate
37.1%
13.5%
Draw rate
11.4%
35.1%
Loss rate
51.4%
89.2%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
67.6%
Over 2.5 rate
65.7%
40.5%
Over 3.5 rate
34.3%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.57
37
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.81
Goals for per game
1.36
80.2%
Scoring rate
68.1%
59.3%
BTTS rate
51.4%
1.86
Goals for per game
1.43
86.5%
Scoring rate
60.0%
59.5%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.60
Goals for per game
0.60
60.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
81
History Matches
72
1.81
Goals Mean
1.36
1.53
Goals Std
1.45
80.2%
Scored 1+ rate
68.1%
55.6%
Scored 2+ rate
36.1%
23.5%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
1.86
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.62
Goals against per game
1.60
77.8%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.41
Goals against per game
1.69
73.0%
Conceding rate
77.1%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.60
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
81
History Matches
72
1.62
Conceded Mean
1.60
1.30
Conceded Std
1.36
49.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.7%
22.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.4%
1.41
Venue Conceded Mean
1.69
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
19.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.9%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
19.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.9%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
81
History Matches
72
0.94
Result entropy
0.96
2.35
Goal Difference Std
2.08
5.92
Stability score
4.02
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
80
Eligible Matches
72
29
Lead Matches
18
86.2%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.78
22
Trailing Matches
23
27.3%
Non-loss rate
17.4%
13.6%
Trailing Win Rate
17.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
80
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
0.88
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.95
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.94
Rest days
77.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
14
Short Rest History Matches
8
1.43
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.25
43
Normal Rest History Matches
45
1.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
23
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.61
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.20
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
80.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
3.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.80
Current Competition PPG
0.20
-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
7
Competition Season Count
8
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.74
1.41
Portability PPG Range
2.05
53.69
Portability Score
40.24
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
81
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO96.08
PPG0.18
GF0.45
GA0.02
PPG1.60
PPG0.45
PPG1.20
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate4.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches9
Goals Mean0.45
Goals Std0.09
Scored 1+ rate12.2%
Scored 2+ rate19.4%
Scored 3+ rate6.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.15
History Matches9
Conceded Mean0.02
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate7.7%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.05
History Matches9
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.28
Stability score1.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.12
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate19.5%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate9.9%
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.60
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.31
Portability PPG Range-0.64
Portability Score13.45
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Short Rest Points Per Match0.18
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.61
Current Team ELO96.08
Current Opponent ELO-96.08
Current ELO Difference192.2
Expected score0.27
History Matches9
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance4.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Podbrezová

L
Podbrezová1–2Slovan Bratislava31 Oct · home
Pick: Slovan Bratislava 67% · hit
W
Zemplín Michalovce1–4Podbrezová24 Oct · away
Pick: Zemplín Michalovce 43% · missed
L
Dukla Banská Bystrica1–0Podbrezová18 Oct · away
Pick: Podbrezová 50% · missed
D
Podbrezová2–2FK Košice29 Aug · home
Pick: FK Košice 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ružomberok

W
Ružomberok1–0Skalica1 Nov · home
Pick: Skalica 48% · missed
L
Dunajska Streda5–0Ružomberok24 Oct · away
Pick: Dunajska Streda 72% · hit
W
Komárno0–1Ružomberok17 Oct · away
Pick: Komárno 51% · missed
W
Spartak Myjava0–3Ružomberok14 Oct · away
Pick: Spartak Myjava 42% · missed
L
AS Trencin2–1Ružomberok29 Aug · away
Pick: AS Trencin 55% · hit

About this match

Podbrezová and Ružomberok meet in Super Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Podbrezová win 60.6%, draw 15.8%, Ružomberok win 23.6%. The pick is Podbrezová win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.1%. Both teams to score: 61.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.