Polokwane City vs Kruger United
Polokwane City
Postponed
Wed 4 Nov
Was due at 17:30 UTC
Kruger United
Match result probability Model pick: Polokwane City win
Polokwane City winPick
44.5%
Draw
28.5%
Kruger United win
27.0%
No match played
If the match is played on a new date, this page updates by itself.
Both teams to score
Yes48.3%
No51.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.539.5%
Under 2.560.5%
How much we know
Polokwane City history54 matches
Kruger United history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 10 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 31 Oct · 19:48 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 17:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Polokwane City are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Kruger United are rated 48 Elo points higher
Elo 1,556 against 1,508. On rating alone Kruger United would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.
-
Kruger United score far more
0.70 goals a game over 54 matches for Polokwane City, against 1.36 over 50 for Kruger United.
-
Polokwane City concede fewer
Polokwane City concede 0.93 a game, Kruger United 1.22.
-
Kruger United games more often go over 2.5 goals
20% of Polokwane City matches, against 54% for Kruger United. The model puts this match at 40% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Polokwane City
Kruger United
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1508.1
ELO
1556.3
54
ELO · Matches
50
1508.1
Current Team ELO
1556.3
1556.3
Current Opponent ELO
1508.1
-48.20
Current ELO Difference
48.20
0.43
Expected score
0.57
54
History Matches
50
0.00
Residual Mean
0.05
50.18
Overperformance
53.91
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.40
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.70
0.90
Goals for per game
1.60
1.30
Goals against per game
1.10
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.75
Overall performance9 signals 90
54
Matches
50
1.15
PPG
1.70
24.1%
Win rate
48.0%
42.6%
Draw rate
26.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
26.0%
51.9%
Over 1.5 rate
78.0%
20.4%
Over 2.5 rate
54.0%
7.4%
Over 3.5 rate
22.0%
1.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
Venue performance10 signals 100
25
Matches
25
1.28
PPG
1.44
28.0%
Win rate
40.0%
44.0%
Draw rate
24.0%
28.0%
Loss rate
36.0%
44.0%
Over 1.5 rate
72.0%
24.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.0%
12.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
0.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
25
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
0.70
Goals for per game
1.36
48.1%
Scoring rate
80.0%
35.2%
BTTS rate
56.0%
0.84
Goals for per game
1.20
56.0%
Scoring rate
72.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
52.0%
1.67
Goals for per game
0.50
66.7%
Scoring rate
50.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
54
History Matches
50
0.70
Goals Mean
1.36
0.85
Goals Std
0.97
48.1%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
18.5%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
3.7%
Scored 3+ rate
16.0%
0.84
Venue Goals Mean
1.20
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
0.93
Goals against per game
1.22
66.7%
Conceding rate
72.0%
0.84
Goals against per game
1.32
64.0%
Conceding rate
72.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
54
History Matches
50
0.93
Conceded Mean
1.22
0.81
Conceded Std
1.10
22.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.0%
3.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.0%
0.84
Venue Conceded Mean
1.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
51.9%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
44.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
51.9%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
44.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
54
History Matches
50
0.98
Result entropy
0.96
1.08
Goal Difference Std
1.64
2.37
Stability score
4.17
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
54
Eligible Matches
50
12
Lead Matches
15
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.87
14
Trailing Matches
14
35.7%
Non-loss rate
35.7%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.35
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.35
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
81.08
Rest days
71.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
35
Normal Rest History Matches
24
0.94
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.92
16
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.57
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
4
1.33
PPG
0.25
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
25.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
3
Current Competition Matches
4
1.33
Current Competition PPG
0.25
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.25
8
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.77
0.53
Portability PPG Range
1.82
66.54
Portability Score
39.47
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
54
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-48.20
PPG-0.55
GF-0.66
GA-0.29
PPG1.08
PPG-0.16
PPG0.80
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Failed-to-score rate31.9%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate8.0%
Failed-to-score rate16.0%
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.66
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.32
Scored 2+ rate-0.21
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean-0.36
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.07
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.29
Conceded Std-0.29
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-0.48
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches4
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.55
Stability score-1.80
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.55
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG1.08
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.92
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.52
Portability PPG Range-1.28
Portability Score27.07
Rest days10.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.97
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.19
Current Team ELO-48.20
Current Opponent ELO48.20
Current ELO Difference-96.41
Expected score-0.14
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Polokwane City
D
Polokwane City0–0TS Galaxy31 Oct · home
Pick: Polokwane City 35% · missed L
Siwelele1–0Polokwane City18 Oct · away
Pick: Polokwane City 35% · missed D
Polokwane City0–0Milford FC26 Aug · home
Pick: Milford FC 37% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Kruger United
W
Kruger United3–1Richards Bay31 Oct · home
Pick: Richards Bay 36% · missed L
Kruger United0–1Amazulu25 Oct · home
Pick: Kruger United 38% · missed W
Chippa United0–1Kruger United17 Oct · away
Pick: Chippa United 42% · missed L
Kruger United0–4Orlando Pirates1 Sep · home
Pick: Orlando Pirates 57% · hit L
Kruger United0–2Durban City25 Aug · home
Pick: Kruger United 40% · missed About this match
Polokwane City and Kruger United were due to play in Premier Soccer League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, but the match was not played.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.