Ponferradina vs Cacereño
Match result probability Model pick: Ponferradina win
Ponferradina winPick
49.0%
Draw
28.5%
Cacereño win
22.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes51.6%
No48.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.545.4%
Under 2.554.6%
How much we know
Ponferradina history72 matches
Cacereño history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Ponferradina
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 17:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 18:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.
Why Ponferradina are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Ponferradina are rated 38 Elo points higher
Elo 1,556 against 1,518. On rating alone Ponferradina would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.
-
Cacereño score more
1.19 goals a game over 72 matches for Ponferradina, against 1.33 over 61 for Cacereño.
-
Defences are close
Ponferradina concede 1.13 a game, Cacereño 1.15.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
39% of Ponferradina matches, against 43% for Cacereño. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cacereño@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1556.0
ELO
1518.4
72
ELO · Matches
61
1556.0
Current Team ELO
1518.4
1518.4
Current Opponent ELO
1556.0
37.58
Current ELO Difference
-37.58
0.55
Expected score
0.45
72
History Matches
61
0.04
Residual Mean
0.01
53.00
Overperformance
50.99
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
2.20
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.90
1.00
Goals for per game
1.70
1.10
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.35
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.58
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.95
Overall performance9 signals 90
72
Matches
61
1.54
PPG
1.44
43.1%
Win rate
37.7%
25.0%
Draw rate
31.1%
31.9%
Loss rate
31.1%
61.1%
Over 1.5 rate
75.4%
38.9%
Over 2.5 rate
42.6%
26.4%
Over 3.5 rate
24.6%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
Venue performance10 signals 100
36
Matches
31
1.75
PPG
1.32
50.0%
Win rate
32.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
35.5%
25.0%
Loss rate
32.3%
63.9%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
38.9%
Over 2.5 rate
35.5%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
22.6%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
36
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.19
Goals for per game
1.33
69.4%
Scoring rate
72.1%
38.9%
BTTS rate
50.8%
1.44
Goals for per game
1.19
75.0%
Scoring rate
74.2%
44.4%
BTTS rate
54.8%
72
History Matches
61
1.19
Goals Mean
1.33
1.08
Goals Std
1.18
69.4%
Scored 1+ rate
72.1%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
37.7%
13.9%
Scored 3+ rate
16.4%
1.44
Venue Goals Mean
1.19
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.13
Goals against per game
1.15
56.9%
Conceding rate
72.1%
0.83
Goals against per game
1.16
58.3%
Conceding rate
80.6%
72
History Matches
61
1.13
Conceded Mean
1.15
1.58
Conceded Std
0.96
25.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.8%
15.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.2%
0.83
Venue Conceded Mean
1.16
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
43.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.9%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
43.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.9%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
43.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
72
History Matches
61
0.98
Result entropy
1.00
2.03
Goal Difference Std
1.59
2.25
Stability score
0.38
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
72
Eligible Matches
61
26
Lead Matches
20
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.78
11
Trailing Matches
14
18.2%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
72
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
86.00
Rest days
84.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
37
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.81
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.39
32
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.16
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.44
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.38
0.78
Portability PPG Range
0.91
64.59
Portability Score
57.13
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
72
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO37.58
PPG0.10
GF-0.13
GA-0.02
PPG0.43
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate15.2%
Failed-to-score rate2.7%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate22.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches11
Goals Mean-0.13
Goals Std-0.11
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.45
History Matches11
Conceded Mean-0.02
Conceded Std0.63
Clean-sheet rate15.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate7.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.68
History Matches11
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.44
Stability score1.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.03
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate14.6%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.10
Portability PPG Range-0.13
Portability Score7.47
Rest days1.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.42
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Current Team ELO37.58
Current Opponent ELO-37.58
Current ELO Difference75.17
Expected score0.11
History Matches11
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Ponferradina
D
Racing Ferrol0–0Ponferradina31 Oct · away
Pick: Ponferradina 46% · missed D
Ponferradina0–0Barakaldo24 Oct · home
Pick: Ponferradina 50% · missed D
Zamora1–1Ponferradina17 Oct · away
Pick: Ponferradina 42% · missed W
Ponferradina1–0Mirandes4 Oct · home
Pick: Ponferradina 39% · hit W
UD Ourense0–1Ponferradina29 Aug · away
Pick: Ponferradina 37% · hit Cacereño
L
Cacereño0–1Lugo6 Nov · home
Pick: Cacereño 42% · missed L
Athletic Club II3–1Cacereño31 Oct · away
Pick: Athletic Club II 50% · hit W
Cacereño1–0Zamora24 Oct · home
Pick: Cacereño 38% · hit L
Pontevedra1–0Cacereño18 Oct · away
Pick: Pontevedra 41% · hit L
Mérida AD2–0Cacereño4 Oct · away
Pick: Mérida AD 46% · hit About this match
Ponferradina and Cacereño meet in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Ponferradina win 49.0%, draw 28.5%, Cacereño win 22.5%. The pick is Ponferradina win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.4%. Both teams to score: 51.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.