ScoreProb
FA Cup England 1/128-finals 2026

Port Vale vs Scunthorpe

Port Vale Home · Elo 1,508
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Scunthorpe Away · Elo 1,577
Vale Park, Stoke on Trent Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Port Vale win
Port Vale winPick
40.8%
Draw
27.0%
Scunthorpe win
32.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.0%
No47.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.7%
Under 2.547.3%

How much we know

Port Vale history93 matches
Scunthorpe history89 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Port Vale are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Scunthorpe are rated 70 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,577 against 1,508. On rating alone Scunthorpe would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Scunthorpe score more

    1.27 goals a game over 93 matches for Port Vale, against 1.78 over 89 for Scunthorpe.

  • Defences are close

    Port Vale concede 1.20 a game, Scunthorpe 1.17.

  • Scunthorpe games more often go over 2.5 goals

    42% of Port Vale matches, against 51% for Scunthorpe. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Port Vale
Scunthorpe
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1507.6
ELO
1577.2
93
ELO · Matches
89
1507.6
Current Team ELO
1577.2
1577.2
Current Opponent ELO
1507.6
-69.53
Current ELO Difference
69.53
0.40
Expected score
0.60
93
History Matches
89
0.01
Residual Mean
0.04
50.76
Overperformance
53.36
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.00
0.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.78
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.79
Overall performance9 signals
90
93
Matches
89
1.40
PPG
1.79
38.7%
Win rate
51.7%
23.7%
Draw rate
23.6%
37.6%
Loss rate
24.7%
60.2%
Over 1.5 rate
80.9%
41.9%
Over 2.5 rate
50.6%
28.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.7%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
49
Matches
44
1.45
PPG
1.55
38.8%
Win rate
43.2%
28.6%
Draw rate
25.0%
32.7%
Loss rate
31.8%
55.1%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
38.8%
Over 2.5 rate
47.7%
26.5%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
49
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.27
Goals for per game
1.78
62.4%
Scoring rate
84.3%
35.5%
BTTS rate
58.4%
1.29
Goals for per game
1.55
59.2%
Scoring rate
77.3%
32.7%
BTTS rate
59.1%
93
History Matches
89
1.27
Goals Mean
1.78
1.50
Goals Std
1.29
62.4%
Scored 1+ rate
84.3%
31.2%
Scored 2+ rate
53.9%
15.1%
Scored 3+ rate
25.8%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.55
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.20
Goals against per game
1.17
62.4%
Conceding rate
71.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.25
57.1%
Conceding rate
79.5%
93
History Matches
89
1.20
Conceded Mean
1.17
1.35
Conceded Std
1.09
31.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.1%
16.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.4%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
37.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
37.6%
Failed-to-score rate
15.7%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
40.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
37.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
37.6%
Failed-to-score rate
15.7%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
40.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
37.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
93
History Matches
89
0.98
Result entropy
0.94
2.17
Goal Difference Std
1.65
2.04
Stability score
6.49
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
92
Eligible Matches
88
27
Lead Matches
38
85.2%
Lead Win Rate
84.2%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.89
25
Trailing Matches
23
20.0%
Non-loss rate
34.8%
4.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
92
Halftime Coverage Matches
88
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.88
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.57
69
Normal Rest History Matches
73
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.82
15
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
10
Competition Season Count
10
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.59
Portability PPG Std
0.55
2.09
Portability PPG Range
1.83
46.02
Portability Score
47.50
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
93
Clean History Matches
89
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-69.53
PPG-0.39
GF-0.51
GA0.04
PPG-0.10
PPG0.40
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate9.5%
Failed-to-score rate21.9%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate22.4%
Failed-to-score rate18.1%
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.51
Goals Std0.21
Scored 1+ rate-0.22
Scored 2+ rate-0.23
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean-0.26
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.28
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std0.25
Clean-sheet rate9.5%
Conceded 2+ rate3.1%
Conceded 3+ rate3.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.04
History Matches4
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.53
Stability score-4.45
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.44
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate1.0%
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range0.25
Portability Score-1.48
Rest days-0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.30
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.49
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Current Team ELO-69.53
Current Opponent ELO69.53
Current ELO Difference-139.1
Expected score-0.20
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Port Vale

W
Port Vale4–2Rochdale31 Oct · home
Pick: Port Vale 38% · hit
W
Port Vale5–0Manchester City U2127 Oct · home
Pick: Port Vale 59% · hit
L
York2–0Port Vale24 Oct · away
Pick: York 54% · hit
D
Gillingham1–1Port Vale20 Oct · away
Pick: Port Vale 40% · missed
W
Port Vale1–0Chesterfield17 Oct · home
Pick: Port Vale 40% · hit

Scunthorpe

L
Boston United2–1Scunthorpe31 Oct · away
Pick: Boston United 46% · hit
L
Tamworth4–1Scunthorpe27 Oct · away
Pick: Scunthorpe 39% · missed
L
Scunthorpe2–3Woking24 Oct · home
Pick: Scunthorpe 47% · missed
W
Boston United1–3Scunthorpe17 Oct · away
Pick: Scunthorpe 41% · hit
L
Carlisle4–2Scunthorpe31 Aug · away
Pick: Carlisle 48% · hit

About this match

Port Vale and Scunthorpe meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Vale Park, Stoke on Trent. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Port Vale win 40.8%, draw 27.0%, Scunthorpe win 32.3%. The pick is Port Vale win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.7%. Both teams to score: 53.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.