ScoreProb
Oberliga - Mittelrhein Germany Mittelrhein - 10 2026

Porz vs Fortuna Köln II

Porz Home · Elo 1,397
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Fortuna Köln II Away · Elo 1,480
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Fortuna Köln II win
Porz win
20.4%
Draw
14.3%
Fortuna Köln II winPick
65.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.8%
No36.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.578.9%
Under 2.521.1%

How much we know

Porz history43 matches
Fortuna Köln II history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.3%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Fortuna Köln II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Fortuna Köln II are rated 83 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,480 against 1,397. On rating alone Fortuna Köln II would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.86 goals a game over 43 matches for Porz, against 1.83 over 47 for Fortuna Köln II.

  • Fortuna Köln II concede fewer

    Porz concede 2.86 a game, Fortuna Köln II 1.77.

  • Porz games more often go over 2.5 goals

    81% of Porz matches, against 68% for Fortuna Köln II. The model puts this match at 79% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 7 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Porz
Fortuna Köln II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1397.4
ELO
1480.4
43
ELO · Matches
47
1397.4
Current Team ELO
1480.4
1480.4
Current Opponent ELO
1397.4
-83.01
Current ELO Difference
83.01
0.38
Expected score
0.62
43
History Matches
47
-0.12
Residual Mean
-0.03
41.84
Overperformance
48.17
-0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.20
1.60
Goals for per game
2.60
6.00
Goals against per game
2.20
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.20
PPG
0.90
1.50
Goals for per game
2.30
4.90
Goals against per game
2.40
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.85
4.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.30
Overall performance9 signals
90
43
Matches
47
0.98
PPG
1.23
27.9%
Win rate
34.0%
14.0%
Draw rate
21.3%
58.1%
Loss rate
44.7%
93.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.2%
81.4%
Over 2.5 rate
68.1%
65.1%
Over 3.5 rate
51.1%
2.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
25
0.95
PPG
1.36
28.6%
Win rate
40.0%
9.5%
Draw rate
16.0%
61.9%
Loss rate
44.0%
90.5%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
85.7%
Over 2.5 rate
72.0%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
52.0%
2.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
21
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.86
Goals for per game
1.83
90.7%
Scoring rate
78.7%
74.4%
BTTS rate
59.6%
1.57
Goals for per game
1.88
90.5%
Scoring rate
84.0%
76.2%
BTTS rate
64.0%
43
History Matches
47
1.86
Goals Mean
1.83
1.27
Goals Std
1.48
90.7%
Scored 1+ rate
78.7%
53.5%
Scored 2+ rate
57.4%
27.9%
Scored 3+ rate
25.5%
1.57
Venue Goals Mean
1.88
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.86
Goals against per game
1.77
83.7%
Conceding rate
76.6%
2.52
Goals against per game
1.72
85.7%
Conceding rate
76.0%
43
History Matches
47
2.86
Conceded Mean
1.77
2.17
Conceded Std
1.24
74.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
63.8%
51.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.7%
2.52
Venue Conceded Mean
1.72
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
16.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
9.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
9.5%
Failed-to-score rate
16.0%
16.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
9.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
9.5%
Failed-to-score rate
16.0%
16.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
43
History Matches
47
0.86
Result entropy
0.96
2.72
Goal Difference Std
1.98
13.87
Stability score
3.87
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
46
14
Lead Matches
12
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.57
Lead Points Retention
0.86
17
Trailing Matches
21
11.8%
Non-loss rate
23.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.81
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
1.12
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
1.05
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.11
1.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
154.0
Rest days
154.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
21
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.14
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
21
Long Rest History Matches
19
0.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.16
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.37
0.85
Portability PPG Range
0.74
53.92
Portability Score
57.50
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
43
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-83.01
PPG-0.26
GF0.03
GA1.09
PPG-0.41
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.03
Goals Std-0.21
Scored 1+ rate12.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate2.4%
Venue Goals Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.92
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean1.09
Conceded Std0.93
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate10.6%
Conceded 3+ rate23.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.50
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.10
Goal Difference Std0.74
Stability score9.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.39
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.29
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.98
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.12
Portability Score-3.58
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Current Team ELO-83.01
Current Opponent ELO83.01
Current ELO Difference-166.0
Expected score-0.23
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Porz

L
Düren Merzenich2–1Porz23 Oct · away
Pick: Düren Merzenich 56% · hit
L
Porz1–2Hennef 0518 Oct · home
Pick: Hennef 05 55% · hit
L
Porz0–1Wegberg-Beeck4 Oct · home
Pick: Wegberg-Beeck 67% · hit
D
Lindenthal-Hohenlind2–2Porz30 Aug · away
Pick: Lindenthal-Hohenlind 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Fortuna Köln II

D
Fortuna Köln II0–0VfL Vichttal25 Oct · home
Pick: VfL Vichttal 43% · missed
L
Düren Merzenich3–2Fortuna Köln II18 Oct · away
Pick: Fortuna Köln II 50% · missed
W
Hennef 050–1Fortuna Köln II4 Oct · away
Pick: Fortuna Köln II 48% · hit
W
Fortuna Köln II3–2Borussia Neunkirchen30 Aug · home
Pick: Fortuna Köln II 78% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Porz and Fortuna Köln II meet in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Porz win 20.4%, draw 14.3%, Fortuna Köln II win 65.3%. The pick is Fortuna Köln II win. Over 2.5 goals: 78.9%. Both teams to score: 63.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.