ScoreProb
Oberliga - Mittelrhein Germany Mittelrhein - 10 2026

SSV Merten vs Düren Merzenich

SSV Merten Home · Elo 1,603
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Düren Merzenich Away · Elo 1,453
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: SSV Merten win
SSV Merten winPick
68.7%
Draw
13.7%
Düren Merzenich win
17.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.1%
No37.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.577.8%
Under 2.522.2%

How much we know

SSV Merten history44 matches
Düren Merzenich history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (68.7%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why SSV Merten are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • SSV Merten are rated 151 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,603 against 1,453. On rating alone SSV Merten would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • SSV Merten score far more

    2.70 goals a game over 44 matches for SSV Merten, against 1.40 over 42 for Düren Merzenich.

  • SSV Merten concede fewer

    SSV Merten concede 1.07 a game, Düren Merzenich 2.14.

  • SSV Merten games more often go over 2.5 goals

    75% of SSV Merten matches, against 67% for Düren Merzenich. The model puts this match at 78% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 7 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
SSV Merten
Düren Merzenich
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1603.3
ELO
1452.6
44
ELO · Matches
42
1603.3
Current Team ELO
1452.6
1452.6
Current Opponent ELO
1603.3
150.7
Current ELO Difference
-150.7
0.70
Expected score
0.30
44
History Matches
42
0.11
Residual Mean
-0.06
57.83
Overperformance
46.26
0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
0.60
5.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
2.60
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
1.00
4.70
Goals for per game
1.90
1.20
Goals against per game
2.20
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
4.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
2.65
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.51
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.60
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.97
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.45
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
42
2.02
PPG
1.12
61.4%
Win rate
31.0%
18.2%
Draw rate
19.0%
20.5%
Loss rate
50.0%
84.1%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
52.3%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.49
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
21
2.41
PPG
1.00
77.3%
Win rate
28.6%
9.1%
Draw rate
14.3%
13.6%
Loss rate
57.1%
90.9%
Over 1.5 rate
81.0%
81.8%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
54.5%
Over 3.5 rate
47.6%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
22
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.70
Goals for per game
1.40
88.6%
Scoring rate
69.0%
63.6%
BTTS rate
54.8%
3.05
Goals for per game
1.33
95.5%
Scoring rate
76.2%
68.2%
BTTS rate
61.9%
44
History Matches
42
2.70
Goals Mean
1.40
2.07
Goals Std
1.38
88.6%
Scored 1+ rate
69.0%
65.9%
Scored 2+ rate
40.5%
50.0%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
3.05
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.07
Goals against per game
2.14
72.7%
Conceding rate
78.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.95
72.7%
Conceding rate
81.0%
44
History Matches
42
1.07
Conceded Mean
2.14
0.84
Conceded Std
1.78
29.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
57.1%
4.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
35.7%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.95
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
4.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
4.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
42
0.85
Result entropy
0.93
2.29
Goal Difference Std
2.49
14.96
Stability score
6.66
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
42
21
Lead Matches
11
81.0%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.88
7
Trailing Matches
17
28.6%
Non-loss rate
11.8%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
1.14
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.14
1.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
154.0
Rest days
154.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
24
Normal Rest History Matches
23
2.17
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.96
19
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.95
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.08
Portability PPG Std
0.36
0.17
Portability PPG Range
0.71
85.63
Portability Score
58.33
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO150.7
PPG0.90
GF1.30
GA-1.07
PPG1.41
PPG2.00
PPG1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate5.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate8.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches2
Goals Mean1.30
Goals Std0.69
Scored 1+ rate19.6%
Scored 2+ rate25.4%
Scored 3+ rate35.7%
Venue Goals Mean1.71
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.80
Recent 10 Goals Std1.13
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-1.07
Conceded Std-0.94
Clean-sheet rate5.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.28
Conceded 3+ rate-0.31
Venue Conceded Mean-0.95
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.62
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.20
Stability score8.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.52
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate16.8%
Trailing Win Rate14.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.39
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.27
Portability PPG Range-0.55
Portability Score27.30
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.21
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.61
Current Team ELO150.7
Current Opponent ELO-150.7
Current ELO Difference301.3
Expected score0.41
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.17
Overperformance11.57
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

SSV Merten

W
Hennef 051–3SSV Merten25 Oct · away
Pick: SSV Merten 56% · hit
W
SSV Merten4–0TuS BW Königsdorf18 Oct · home
Pick: SSV Merten 48% · hit
W
SSV Merten6–1Eintracht Hohkeppel4 Oct · home
Pick: SSV Merten 44% · hit
L
Siegburger SV2–0SSV Merten30 Aug · away
Pick: Siegburger SV 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Düren Merzenich

W
Düren Merzenich2–1Porz23 Oct · home
Pick: Düren Merzenich 56% · hit
W
Düren Merzenich3–2Fortuna Köln II18 Oct · home
Pick: Fortuna Köln II 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

SSV Merten and Düren Merzenich meet in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: SSV Merten win 68.7%, draw 13.7%, Düren Merzenich win 17.6%. The pick is SSV Merten win. Over 2.5 goals: 77.8%. Both teams to score: 62.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.