ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 Spain Group 7 - 10 2026

Pozuelo Alarcón vs Villanueva Pardillo

Pozuelo Alarcón Home · Elo 1,501
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Villanueva Pardillo Away · Elo 1,496
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Pozuelo Alarcón win
Pozuelo Alarcón winPick
42.9%
Draw
27.5%
Villanueva Pardillo win
29.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.6%
No50.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.1%
Under 2.553.9%

How much we know

Pozuelo Alarcón history34 matches
Villanueva Pardillo history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Pozuelo Alarcón are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,501 against 1,496. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.15 goals a game over 34 matches for Pozuelo Alarcón, against 1.12 over 33 for Villanueva Pardillo.

  • Pozuelo Alarcón concede fewer

    Pozuelo Alarcón concede 0.94 a game, Villanueva Pardillo 1.33.

  • Villanueva Pardillo games more often go over 2.5 goals

    35% of Pozuelo Alarcón matches, against 48% for Villanueva Pardillo. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Pozuelo Alarcón
Villanueva Pardillo
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1500.7
ELO
1495.8
34
ELO · Matches
33
1500.7
Current Team ELO
1495.8
1495.8
Current Opponent ELO
1500.7
4.90
Current ELO Difference
-4.90
0.51
Expected score
0.49
34
History Matches
33
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.01
50.00
Overperformance
49.56
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.28
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
3.00
1.60
Goals for per game
2.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
2.00
1.50
Goals for per game
1.50
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
33
1.41
PPG
1.24
35.3%
Win rate
36.4%
35.3%
Draw rate
15.2%
29.4%
Loss rate
48.5%
61.8%
Over 1.5 rate
63.6%
35.3%
Over 2.5 rate
48.5%
17.6%
Over 3.5 rate
15.2%
1.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
17
1.71
PPG
1.06
47.1%
Win rate
29.4%
29.4%
Draw rate
17.6%
23.5%
Loss rate
52.9%
58.8%
Over 1.5 rate
47.1%
41.2%
Over 2.5 rate
35.3%
17.6%
Over 3.5 rate
17.6%
1.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.21
17
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.15
Goals for per game
1.12
64.7%
Scoring rate
72.7%
47.1%
BTTS rate
51.5%
1.29
Goals for per game
0.94
70.6%
Scoring rate
58.8%
52.9%
BTTS rate
41.2%
34
History Matches
33
1.15
Goals Mean
1.12
1.09
Goals Std
1.07
64.7%
Scored 1+ rate
72.7%
35.3%
Scored 2+ rate
24.2%
11.8%
Scored 3+ rate
9.1%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
0.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.94
Goals against per game
1.33
70.6%
Conceding rate
72.7%
0.82
Goals against per game
1.18
70.6%
Conceding rate
70.6%
34
History Matches
33
0.94
Conceded Mean
1.33
0.80
Conceded Std
1.36
17.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.4%
5.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.1%
0.82
Venue Conceded Mean
1.18
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
35.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
41.2%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
35.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
41.2%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
33
1.00
Result entropy
0.91
1.32
Goal Difference Std
1.72
0.32
Stability score
8.54
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
33
12
Lead Matches
13
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
53.8%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.59
10
Trailing Matches
8
60.0%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
85.38
Rest days
182.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
18
Normal Rest History Matches
16
1.39
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.13
15
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.47
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO4.90
PPG0.17
GF0.03
GA-0.39
PPG0.65
PPG-1.60
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate2.1%
Failed-to-score rate8.0%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.03
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate11.1%
Scored 3+ rate2.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.22
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.39
Conceded Std-0.56
Clean-sheet rate2.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.07
History Matches1
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.40
Stability score-8.22
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.39
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate12.8%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate47.5%
Trailing Win Rate20.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.44
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-96.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.26
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.22
Current Team ELO4.90
Current Opponent ELO-4.90
Current ELO Difference9.80
Expected score0.01
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.43
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.40

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Pozuelo Alarcón

L
Unión Adarve3–1Pozuelo Alarcón31 Oct · away
Pick: Unión Adarve 50% · hit
W
Pozuelo Alarcón1–0Torrejón25 Oct · home
Pick: Torrejón 44% · missed
W
Fuenlabrada0–1Pozuelo Alarcón17 Oct · away
Pick: Fuenlabrada 45% · missed
L
Colonia Moscardó5–1Pozuelo Alarcón4 Oct · away
Pick: Colonia Moscardó 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Villanueva Pardillo

L
Villanueva Pardillo1–6Móstoles25 Oct · home
Pick: Móstoles 43% · hit
L
Unión Adarve4–0Villanueva Pardillo18 Oct · away
Pick: Unión Adarve 53% · hit
L
Fuenlabrada1–0Villanueva Pardillo4 Oct · away
Pick: Fuenlabrada 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Pozuelo Alarcón and Villanueva Pardillo meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Pozuelo Alarcón win 42.9%, draw 27.5%, Villanueva Pardillo win 29.5%. The pick is Pozuelo Alarcón win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.1%. Both teams to score: 49.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.