Quintanar del Rey vs Villarrubia
Quintanar del Rey
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Villarrubia
Match result probability Model pick: Quintanar del Rey win
Quintanar del Rey winPick
42.2%
Draw
29.3%
Villarrubia win
28.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes49.2%
No50.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.542.7%
Under 2.557.3%
How much we know
Quintanar del Rey history52 matches
Villarrubia history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Quintanar del Rey
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 16:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 17:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Quintanar del Rey are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,498 against 1,515. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Villarrubia score more
0.98 goals a game over 52 matches for Quintanar del Rey, against 1.23 over 48 for Villarrubia.
-
Defences are close
Quintanar del Rey concede 1.02 a game, Villarrubia 1.13.
-
Villarrubia games more often go over 2.5 goals
35% of Quintanar del Rey matches, against 46% for Villarrubia. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 9 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Quintanar del Rey
Villarrubia
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1497.8
ELO
1515.0
52
ELO · Matches
48
1497.8
Current Team ELO
1515.0
1515.0
Current Opponent ELO
1497.8
-17.15
Current ELO Difference
17.15
0.48
Expected score
0.52
52
History Matches
48
0.00
Residual Mean
0.02
49.94
Overperformance
51.09
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.30
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.04
Overall performance9 signals 90
52
Matches
48
1.31
PPG
1.44
34.6%
Win rate
39.6%
26.9%
Draw rate
25.0%
38.5%
Loss rate
35.4%
55.8%
Over 1.5 rate
77.1%
34.6%
Over 2.5 rate
45.8%
17.3%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
Venue performance10 signals 100
26
Matches
24
1.46
PPG
0.88
34.6%
Win rate
16.7%
42.3%
Draw rate
37.5%
23.1%
Loss rate
45.8%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
23.1%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
11.5%
Over 3.5 rate
8.3%
1.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
26
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.98
Goals for per game
1.23
59.6%
Scoring rate
72.9%
38.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.92
Goals for per game
0.88
53.8%
Scoring rate
58.3%
30.8%
BTTS rate
45.8%
52
History Matches
48
0.98
Goals Mean
1.23
1.08
Goals Std
0.94
59.6%
Scored 1+ rate
72.9%
25.0%
Scored 2+ rate
41.7%
9.6%
Scored 3+ rate
8.3%
0.92
Venue Goals Mean
0.88
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.02
Goals against per game
1.13
59.6%
Conceding rate
70.8%
0.69
Goals against per game
1.21
46.2%
Conceding rate
75.0%
52
History Matches
48
1.02
Conceded Mean
1.13
1.07
Conceded Std
0.90
28.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.4%
11.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.3%
0.69
Venue Conceded Mean
1.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
40.4%
Failed-to-score rate
27.1%
53.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
46.2%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
40.4%
Failed-to-score rate
27.1%
53.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
46.2%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
52
History Matches
48
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.45
Goal Difference Std
1.39
0.97
Stability score
1.60
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
52
Eligible Matches
48
10
Lead Matches
14
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
57.1%
0.63
Lead Points Retention
0.64
12
Trailing Matches
9
25.0%
Non-loss rate
44.4%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.35
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
189.3
Rest days
183.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
30
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
21
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.43
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.12
0.65
Portability PPG Range
0.25
60.50
Portability Score
80.10
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
52
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-17.15
PPG-0.13
GF-0.25
GA-0.11
PPG0.59
PPG0.40
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate11.2%
Failed-to-score rate13.3%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate28.8%
Failed-to-score rate4.5%
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.25
Goals Std0.14
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate1.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.27
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.11
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate11.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate5.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.52
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.20
History Matches4
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.07
Stability score-0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.28
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate2.9%
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate13.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.20
Portability PPG Range0.40
Portability Score-19.60
Rest days6.29
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Current Team ELO-17.15
Current Opponent ELO17.15
Current ELO Difference-34.30
Expected score-0.05
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.21
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Quintanar del Rey
D
Marchamalo3–3Quintanar del Rey31 Oct · away
Pick: Marchamalo 36% · missed L
Socuéllamos2–1Quintanar del Rey25 Oct · away
Pick: Socuéllamos 40% · hit L
Quintanar del Rey1–2Tarancón18 Oct · home
Pick: Tarancón 36% · hit L
Quintanar del Rey0–2CD Villa4 Oct · home
Pick: Quintanar del Rey 63% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Villarrubia
W
Villarrubia1–0Socuéllamos1 Nov · home
Pick: Socuéllamos 38% · missed D
Tarancón1–1Villarrubia24 Oct · away
Pick: Tarancón 50% · missed W
Villarrubia4–0Guadalajara II18 Oct · home
Pick: Villarrubia 54% · hit D
Villarrubia1–1Torrijos4 Oct · home
Pick: Villarrubia 69% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Quintanar del Rey and Villarrubia meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Quintanar del Rey win 42.2%, draw 29.3%, Villarrubia win 28.5%. The pick is Quintanar del Rey win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.7%. Both teams to score: 49.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.