ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 Spain Group 18 - 10 2026

Villarrobledo vs San Clemente

Villarrobledo Home · Elo 1,489
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
San Clemente Away · Elo 1,511
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Villarrobledo win
Villarrobledo winPick
48.2%
Draw
28.5%
San Clemente win
23.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.0%
No55.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.2%
Under 2.557.8%

How much we know

Villarrobledo history48 matches
San Clemente history32 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Villarrobledo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,489 against 1,511. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • San Clemente score more

    0.81 goals a game over 48 matches for Villarrobledo, against 1.06 over 32 for San Clemente.

  • Defences are close

    Villarrobledo concede 1.38 a game, San Clemente 1.25.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    42% of Villarrobledo matches, against 41% for San Clemente. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Villarrobledo
San Clemente
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1488.7
ELO
1510.7
48
ELO · Matches
32
1488.7
Current Team ELO
1510.7
1510.7
Current Opponent ELO
1488.7
-22.01
Current ELO Difference
22.01
0.47
Expected score
0.53
48
History Matches
32
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.02
49.32
Overperformance
51.07
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.80
0.40
Goals for per game
0.80
0.40
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.50
0.80
Goals for per game
1.10
0.70
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.66
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
32
1.10
PPG
1.38
27.1%
Win rate
34.4%
29.2%
Draw rate
34.4%
43.8%
Loss rate
31.3%
64.6%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
40.6%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
21.9%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
16
1.25
PPG
0.81
29.2%
Win rate
12.5%
37.5%
Draw rate
43.8%
33.3%
Loss rate
43.8%
54.2%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
31.3%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
24
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.81
Goals for per game
1.06
52.1%
Scoring rate
65.6%
39.6%
BTTS rate
46.9%
0.88
Goals for per game
0.69
58.3%
Scoring rate
50.0%
37.5%
BTTS rate
37.5%
48
History Matches
32
0.81
Goals Mean
1.06
1.03
Goals Std
1.00
52.1%
Scored 1+ rate
65.6%
18.8%
Scored 2+ rate
31.3%
6.3%
Scored 3+ rate
6.3%
0.88
Venue Goals Mean
0.69
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.38
Goals against per game
1.25
70.8%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.31
62.5%
Conceding rate
75.0%
48
History Matches
32
1.38
Conceded Mean
1.25
1.41
Conceded Std
1.00
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.5%
20.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.4%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.31
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
47.9%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
41.7%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
47.9%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
41.7%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
32
0.98
Result entropy
1.00
1.90
Goal Difference Std
1.49
2.17
Stability score
0.09
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
32
10
Lead Matches
10
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.80
18
Trailing Matches
5
5.6%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
32
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.48
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
183.1
Rest days
182.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
27
Normal Rest History Matches
14
1.19
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.43
20
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.41
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.32
Portability PPG Std
—
0.64
Portability PPG Range
—
61.11
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
32
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-22.01
PPG-0.27
GF-0.25
GA0.13
PPG0.44
PPG0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate4.2%
Failed-to-score rate13.5%
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches16
Goals Mean-0.25
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.17
History Matches16
Conceded Mean0.13
Conceded Std0.41
Clean-sheet rate4.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate11.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.29
History Matches16
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.41
Stability score2.08
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.62
Eligible Matches16
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate10.0%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches13
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches16
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days1.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches13
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Current Team ELO-22.01
Current Opponent ELO22.01
Current ELO Difference-44.03
Expected score-0.06
History Matches16
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-1.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Villarrobledo

W
Villarrobledo1–0Manchego25 Oct · home
Pick: Manchego 41% · missed
D
Huracán Balazote1–1Villarrobledo18 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

San Clemente

L
San Clemente2–3Toledo31 Oct · home
Pick: Toledo 49% · hit
W
San Clemente3–1Marchamalo25 Oct · home
Pick: Marchamalo 42% · missed
D
Almansa1–1San Clemente18 Oct · away
Pick: Almansa 39% · missed
W
Huracán Balazote3–5San Clemente4 Oct · away
Pick: Huracán Balazote 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Villarrobledo and San Clemente meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Villarrobledo win 48.2%, draw 28.5%, San Clemente win 23.3%. The pick is Villarrobledo win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.2%. Both teams to score: 45.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.