ScoreProb
3. SNL - East Slovenia East - 13 2026

Rače vs Šampion Celje

Rače Home · Elo 1,471
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Šampion Celje Away · Elo 1,489
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rače win
Rače winPick
48.1%
Draw
30.4%
Šampion Celje win
21.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.4%
No45.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.5%
Under 2.545.5%

How much we know

Rače history24 matches
Šampion Celje history2 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Rače are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,471 against 1,489. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Šampion Celje score far more

    0.96 goals a game over 24 matches for Rače, against 1.50 over 2 for Šampion Celje.

  • Rače concede fewer

    Rače concede 1.67 a game, Šampion Celje 2.00.

  • Šampion Celje games more often go over 2.5 goals

    42% of Rače matches, against 50% for Šampion Celje. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rače
Šampion Celje
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1471.1
ELO
1488.6
24
ELO · Matches
2
1471.1
Current Team ELO
1488.6
1488.6
Current Opponent ELO
1471.1
-17.49
Current ELO Difference
17.49
0.47
Expected score
0.53
24
History Matches
2
-0.06
Residual Mean
-0.29
46.76
Overperformance
47.39
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.29
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
0.50
0.80
Goals for per game
1.50
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
0.50
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
1.50
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.50
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.57
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
24
Matches
2
1.08
PPG
0.50
25.0%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
50.0%
41.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
29.2%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
12
Matches
1
1.25
PPG
0.00
25.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
12
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.96
Goals for per game
1.50
62.5%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
0.92
Goals for per game
2.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
58.3%
BTTS rate
100.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
24
History Matches
2
0.96
Goals Mean
1.50
1.14
Goals Std
0.50
62.5%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
16.7%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
8.3%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
0.92
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.67
Goals against per game
2.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
3.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
24
History Matches
2
1.67
Conceded Mean
2.00
1.80
Conceded Std
1.00
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
25.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
50.0%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
3.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
24
History Matches
2
0.98
Result entropy
0.63
2.26
Goal Difference Std
0.50
1.92
Stability score
36.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
24
Eligible Matches
2
4
Lead Matches
0
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.67
Lead Points Retention
—
8
Trailing Matches
1
12.5%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
24
Halftime Coverage Matches
2
0.46
First Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.96
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.50
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.92
Rest days
76.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
14
Normal Rest History Matches
1
1.21
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
8
Long Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
5
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
24
Clean History Matches
2
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO-17.49
PPG0.58
GF-0.54
GA-0.33
PPG0.00
PPG1.25
PPG0.50
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches22
Clean-sheet rate25.0%
Failed-to-score rate37.5%
History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate25.0%
Failed-to-score rate33.3%
History Matches22
Goals Mean-0.54
Goals Std0.64
Scored 1+ rate-0.38
Scored 2+ rate-0.33
Scored 3+ rate8.3%
Venue Goals Mean-1.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.27
History Matches22
Conceded Mean-0.33
Conceded Std0.80
Clean-sheet rate25.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.25
Venue Conceded Mean-2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.28
History Matches22
Result entropy0.35
Goal Difference Std1.76
Stability score-34.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.07
Eligible Matches22
Lead Matches4
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate12.5%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches22
First Half Goals For Mean0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean0.46
Second Half Goals For Mean-1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.79
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches13
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.21
Long Rest History Matches8
Current Team ELO-17.49
Current Opponent ELO17.49
Current ELO Difference-34.99
Expected score-0.05
History Matches22
Residual Mean0.23
Overperformance-0.63
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rače

W
Rače1–0Odranci31 Oct · home
Pick: Odranci 40% · missed
D
Dobrovce1–1Rače28 Oct · away
Pick: Rače 59% · missed
W
NK Ormoz1–3Rače24 Oct · away
Pick: Rače 50% · hit
W
Rače1–0Fužinar17 Oct · home
Pick: Fužinar 40% · missed
D
Rače0–0Korotan Prevalje26 Aug · home
Pick: Korotan Prevalje 42% · missed

Šampion Celje

L
Korotan Prevalje3–0Šampion Celje28 Oct · away
Pick: Korotan Prevalje 60% · hit
L
NK Ormoz2–0Šampion Celje17 Oct · away
Pick: NK Ormoz 51% · hit
L
Videm1–0Šampion Celje4 Oct · away
Pick: Videm 51% · hit
L
Ljutomer3–0Šampion Celje29 Aug · away
Pick: Ljutomer 56% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Rače and Šampion Celje meet in 3. SNL - East on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Rače win 48.1%, draw 30.4%, Šampion Celje win 21.5%. The pick is Rače win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.5%. Both teams to score: 54.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.