ScoreProb
Championship Scotland Round 14 2026

Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline

Raith Rovers Home · Elo 1,554
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dunfermline Away · Elo 1,538
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Raith Rovers win
Raith Rovers winPick
50.7%
Draw
22.2%
Dunfermline win
27.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.7%
No50.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.3%
Under 2.550.7%

How much we know

Raith Rovers history74 matches
Dunfermline history78 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Raith Rovers are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,554 against 1,538. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Raith Rovers score more

    1.53 goals a game over 74 matches for Raith Rovers, against 1.28 over 78 for Dunfermline.

  • Defences are close

    Raith Rovers concede 1.14 a game, Dunfermline 1.09.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Raith Rovers matches, against 45% for Dunfermline. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Raith Rovers
Dunfermline
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1553.9
ELO
1537.8
74
ELO · Matches
78
1553.9
Current Team ELO
1537.8
1537.8
Current Opponent ELO
1553.9
16.12
Current ELO Difference
-16.12
0.52
Expected score
0.48
74
History Matches
78
0.04
Residual Mean
0.02
53.00
Overperformance
51.97
0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
0.60
0.60
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.70
1.60
Goals for per game
1.70
0.70
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.68
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
74
Matches
78
1.53
PPG
1.42
41.9%
Win rate
39.7%
27.0%
Draw rate
23.1%
31.1%
Loss rate
37.2%
74.3%
Over 1.5 rate
67.9%
45.9%
Over 2.5 rate
44.9%
29.7%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
39
1.92
PPG
1.10
57.9%
Win rate
30.8%
18.4%
Draw rate
17.9%
23.7%
Loss rate
51.3%
84.2%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
48.7%
36.8%
Over 3.5 rate
25.6%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.02
38
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.53
Goals for per game
1.28
67.6%
Scoring rate
62.8%
41.9%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.97
Goals for per game
1.15
81.6%
Scoring rate
56.4%
44.7%
BTTS rate
30.8%
1.67
Goals for per game
0.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
33.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
74
History Matches
78
1.53
Goals Mean
1.28
1.54
Goals Std
1.30
67.6%
Scored 1+ rate
62.8%
40.5%
Scored 2+ rate
39.7%
25.7%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
1.97
Venue Goals Mean
1.15
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.14
Goals against per game
1.09
60.8%
Conceding rate
57.7%
1.08
Goals against per game
1.38
60.5%
Conceding rate
64.1%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
74
History Matches
78
1.14
Conceded Mean
1.09
1.19
Conceded Std
1.15
33.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.9%
13.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.5%
1.08
Venue Conceded Mean
1.38
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
39.2%
Clean-sheet rate
42.3%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
37.2%
39.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.9%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
43.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
39.2%
Clean-sheet rate
42.3%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
37.2%
39.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.9%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
43.6%
39.2%
Clean-sheet rate
42.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
74
History Matches
78
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
2.06
Goal Difference Std
1.87
1.58
Stability score
2.33
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
74
Eligible Matches
78
25
Lead Matches
24
84.0%
Lead Win Rate
91.7%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.92
21
Trailing Matches
27
23.8%
Non-loss rate
25.9%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
74
Halftime Coverage Matches
78
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.23
Rest days
76.23
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
55
Normal Rest History Matches
59
1.49
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.42
15
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.43
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.33
PPG
0.67
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
66.7%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.33
Current Competition PPG
0.67
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.67
9
Competition Season Count
11
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.52
1.08
Portability PPG Range
1.58
55.88
Portability Score
48.93
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
74
Clean History Matches
78
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO16.12
PPG0.10
GF0.24
GA0.05
PPG1.67
PPG0.82
PPG1.00
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate3.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.24
Goals Std0.24
Scored 1+ rate4.7%
Scored 2+ rate0.8%
Scored 3+ rate9.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.82
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.48
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.05
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate2.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.36
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.19
Stability score-0.76
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.95
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate3.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.67
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.13
Portability PPG Range-0.50
Portability Score6.95
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.07
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.24
Current Team ELO16.12
Current Opponent ELO-16.12
Current ELO Difference32.24
Expected score0.05
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance1.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Raith Rovers

W
Arbroath0–4Raith Rovers31 Oct · away
Pick: Raith Rovers 44% · hit
L
Raith Rovers0–2Inverness CT24 Oct · home
Pick: Raith Rovers 44% · missed
D
Stenhousemuir1–1Raith Rovers17 Oct · away
Pick: Stenhousemuir 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Dunfermline

W
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic2–4Dunfermline3 Nov · away
Pick: Dunfermline 41% · hit
W
Dunfermline5–1Inverness CT31 Oct · home
Pick: Inverness CT 40% · missed
W
Stenhousemuir0–1Dunfermline27 Oct · away
Pick: Stenhousemuir 57% · missed
W
Queen's Park0–1Dunfermline24 Oct · away
Pick: Dunfermline 47% · hit
D
Dunfermline1–1Partick20 Oct · home
Pick: Partick 47% · missed

About this match

Raith Rovers and Dunfermline meet in Championship on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Raith Rovers win 50.7%, draw 22.2%, Dunfermline win 27.2%. The pick is Raith Rovers win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.3%. Both teams to score: 49.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.