ScoreProb
Botola Pro Morocco Round 7 2026

Raja Casablanca vs Ittihad Tanger

Raja Casablanca Home · Elo 1,601
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ittihad Tanger Away · Elo 1,528
Stade Mohamed V, Casablanca Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Raja Casablanca win
Raja Casablanca winPick
43.9%
Draw
32.4%
Ittihad Tanger win
23.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.6%
No54.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.539.7%
Under 2.560.3%

How much we know

Raja Casablanca history43 matches
Ittihad Tanger history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Raja Casablanca are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Raja Casablanca are rated 73 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,601 against 1,528. On rating alone Raja Casablanca would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Raja Casablanca score more

    1.40 goals a game over 43 matches for Raja Casablanca, against 1.02 over 42 for Ittihad Tanger.

  • Raja Casablanca concede fewer

    Raja Casablanca concede 0.65 a game, Ittihad Tanger 1.14.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    26% of Raja Casablanca matches, against 33% for Ittihad Tanger. The model puts this match at 40% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 5 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Raja Casablanca
Ittihad Tanger
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1601.4
ELO
1528.1
43
ELO · Matches
42
1601.4
Current Team ELO
1528.1
1528.1
Current Opponent ELO
1601.4
73.28
Current ELO Difference
-73.28
0.60
Expected score
0.40
43
History Matches
42
0.11
Residual Mean
0.03
57.77
Overperformance
52.35
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.90
1.40
Goals for per game
1.10
1.10
Goals against per game
0.80
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
43
Matches
42
1.86
PPG
1.31
51.2%
Win rate
33.3%
32.6%
Draw rate
31.0%
16.3%
Loss rate
35.7%
67.4%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
25.6%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
9.3%
Over 3.5 rate
9.5%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.20
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
21
2.14
PPG
1.10
61.9%
Win rate
28.6%
28.6%
Draw rate
23.8%
9.5%
Loss rate
47.6%
57.1%
Over 1.5 rate
76.2%
19.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
9.5%
Over 3.5 rate
9.5%
1.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.17
21
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.40
Goals for per game
1.02
76.7%
Scoring rate
71.4%
39.5%
BTTS rate
54.8%
1.38
Goals for per game
0.95
76.2%
Scoring rate
66.7%
28.6%
BTTS rate
52.4%
43
History Matches
42
1.40
Goals Mean
1.02
1.24
Goals Std
0.86
76.7%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
39.5%
Scored 2+ rate
26.2%
11.6%
Scored 3+ rate
2.4%
1.38
Venue Goals Mean
0.95
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.65
Goals against per game
1.14
48.8%
Conceding rate
78.6%
0.43
Goals against per game
1.29
38.1%
Conceding rate
85.7%
43
History Matches
42
0.65
Conceded Mean
1.14
0.77
Conceded Std
0.83
14.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.6%
2.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.1%
0.43
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
51.2%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
61.9%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
51.2%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
61.9%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
51.2%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
43
History Matches
42
0.91
Result entropy
1.00
1.42
Goal Difference Std
1.20
8.64
Stability score
0.15
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
42
21
Lead Matches
11
81.0%
Lead Win Rate
63.6%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.73
2
Trailing Matches
16
50.0%
Non-loss rate
31.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
126.1
Rest days
126.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.60
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
22
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.73
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.68
15
Long Rest History Matches
16
2.27
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.94
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.04
Portability PPG Std
0.08
0.09
Portability PPG Range
0.16
91.82
Portability Score
85.98
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
43
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO73.28
PPG0.55
GF0.37
GA-0.49
PPG1.05
PPG0.60
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate29.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate47.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.37
Goals Std0.38
Scored 1+ rate5.3%
Scored 2+ rate13.3%
Scored 3+ rate9.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.43
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.28
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.49
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate29.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.86
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.34
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.22
Stability score8.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.08
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate17.3%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-14
Non-loss rate18.8%
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.38
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.04
Portability PPG Range-0.07
Portability Score5.84
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.27
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.04
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match1.33
Current Team ELO73.28
Current Opponent ELO-73.28
Current ELO Difference146.6
Expected score0.21
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Raja Casablanca

L
Renaissance Berkane2–0Raja Casablanca1 Nov · away
Pick: Renaissance Berkane 51% · hit
D
Raja Casablanca1–1Hassania Agadir28 Oct · home
Pick: Raja Casablanca 47% · missed
W
Raja Casablanca2–0El Kanemi Warriors23 Oct · home
Pick: Raja Casablanca 44% · hit
D
El Kanemi Warriors2–2Raja Casablanca18 Oct · away
Pick: El Kanemi Warriors 40% · missed
D
FUS Rabat1–1Raja Casablanca13 Oct · away
Pick: Raja Casablanca 38% · missed

Ittihad Tanger

W
Ittihad Tanger1–0CR Khemis Zemamra1 Nov · home
Pick: Draw 37% · missed
L
FAR Rabat2–0Ittihad Tanger28 Oct · away
Pick: FAR Rabat 57% · hit
W
Ittihad Tanger2–1Maghreb Fès14 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Raja Casablanca and Ittihad Tanger meet in Botola Pro on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Stade Mohamed V, Casablanca. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Raja Casablanca win 43.9%, draw 32.4%, Ittihad Tanger win 23.7%. The pick is Raja Casablanca win. Over 2.5 goals: 39.7%. Both teams to score: 45.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.